Mir Kamal will be the Green candidate here.

http://www.gpo.ca/York-South-Weston

Prediction!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Liberal - 43.3%
Conservative - 36.1%
ndp - 15.5%
green - 5.1%

Mark’s expert Green analysis notwithstanding… this is an NDP/Liberal race - and the Liberals have an overwhelming head start.

That noted, as anyone who’s driven through can tell you, the sign coverage makes this race seem competitive.

Of course, signs don’t vote.

The NDP needs a strong performance here (though not a victory) to prove that they can be competitive again and that their poll numbers are not just padding. I think the NDP will probably get a strong result; they’re not fighting in Markham and Burlington, but the Liberals have to split their attention three ways.

Final result?

Albanese(LIB): 46%
Ferreira(NDP): 39%
Martino(PC): 13%
Kamal(GRN): 2%

Liberal hold, but a strong second for the NDP.

Hello everyone, just to let you know the libertarians will be running:

Nunzio Venuto

Predictions:
Lib-41%
PC-27%
Lib-25%
Green-6%
Libert-1%

For those predicting strong PC performances, bear in mind that the best PC or Conservative result ever in this district, federally or provincially, was 21%.

Ok boys and girls I’m going to take a wild guess here and say the liberals gave the kibotch to any competition, so lets see why I think the voters are gonna do:

Liberals - 41%
ndp- 30%
pc - 23%
Greens - 5%
other(?)- 1%

NDP Provincial Convention 2007 this weekend.

Bus-loads of people being sent up there to canvass.

NDP isn’t a factor in the other two bi-elections, so all their efforts are concentrated here. And they know where to focus their bonus-canvas from the convention.

The Tories know they’re not a factor here, and will concentrate their efforts in the other two.

There could even be strategic voting from Tories who will vote NDP. (I know that sounds covolusive, but trust me, the Tories love a strong NDP, though they’d never admit it)

Bi-elections are a strange brew to begin with, and there’s definately a negative to being in power in bi-election.

This one will be a nail-biter on e-day

That said… my prediction.

NDP—-40
LIB—-39
PC—–12
GREEN–6
FP—–1-2
LBT—-0-1

I know i’m bucking the trend here but i have to throw out a prediction:

NDP 38%
Lib 32%
Cons 23%
Green 4%
Other 3%

Luke, maybe the PCs as a party like a strong NDP, but your average Tory voter is not going to be thinking that way.

More new Candidates:

Mohammed Choudhary
Independent

Kevin Clarke
Independent

Mariangela Sanabria
Family Coalition Party of Ontario

liberal - 42.1 -
ndp - 33.7 +
pc - 14.2 N
Green- 6.5 N
Other - 3.5 +

Sorry everyone, I just can’t see the NDP cracking here. This is 100% non-biased (Tehe, I vote Green and FCP only.)

York South-Weston is about as safe a liberal seat as you can find.

If the grits lose here then i think they are in serious trouble going into the general election.

It’s not an “extremely safe” Liberal seat. York South was Bob Rae’s seat from 1982 until his retirement. That said, it’s definitely safe from the PCs are probably safe from the NDP.

Actually, it was NDP from 1955 all the way until 1996. True, Weston is more Liberal and some of the best NDP areas have gone to Parkdale-High Park, but calling it a safe Liberal seat demonstrates ignorance of the seat’s history.

Before redistribution parts of this riding did go new democrat. But since 99 (when the current boundaries was formed) this riding has been solidly grit.

That being said the main battle will be between the grits and new democrats. Still it would be a major upset of the ndp managed to win this seat.

The current riding of York-South Weston is about 90% the same as the old York South that was an NDP stronghold under Donald C McDonald and later under Bob Rae. there were only a few bits and pieces carved off in redistribution.

To the extent that it became a safe Liberal seat it had next to nothing to do with redistribution and everything to do with NDP support in 1999 and 2003 being rock bottom while the Liberals were cleaning up in Toronto. Also, the NDP did better in places like this and in Scarborough when there were lots of English and Scottish working class types there. Now it is much more multi-cultural.

Nonetheless after the big NDP win in Parkdale-High Park anything is possible and the NDP focus on raising the minimum wage and on the environment can only be a plus.

The NDP candidate Paul Ferreira ran twice federally and has raised his name recognition. he also ran against Frances Nunziata in the municipal election and got a very respectable 36% of the vote.

An NDP win would still be an upset, but it is not outside the realm of possibility.

FYI, some of you might be interested in this article on Blue-22.

I’ve just come back from the candidate debate sponsored by the Weston Community Coalition.

I attended the debate as an undecided voter (honestly!), and I have to say that Laura Albanese is in completely over her head.

She showed a lack of understanding on most of the issues, and seemed incapable of answering many of the questions posed to her. It’s quite obvious that she and the liberal party are trying to cash in on her name recognition.

It’s hard to see how anybody at that meeting could have left with a positive opinion of her.

With all due respect to Mrs. Albanese, I’m sure her heart is in the right place, but she is not qualified to represent York South Weston.

For this Province to move forward it will need a Conservative Government under John Tory and I hope the people of York South Weston will help to to do this by voting for Pina Martino on Feb.8

I’m voting Mir Kamal of the Gpo. 100% certain. However, I’d advise people to vote for the real concervatives here. The fcp.
btw, did Kamal fair well in the debate? i wasn’t there

Why some people of York South-Weston continue to overlook Paul Ferreira’s extreme dedication, involvement, hardwork and deep knowledge of the riding’s issues is truly beyond me. How is it that this race is close at all? Because, REALLY, it shouldn’t. The only candidate who has expressed sheer passion in the last few years for this riding, through his ACTIONS, is Paul Ferreira. In addition, The NDP party is THE party who presented a Bill to increase the minimum wage to 10$. In the meantime, the Liberals claim they cannot afford such an increase but, by the same token, they vote themselves a 31% pay hike. Digusting. GO figure!

People who choose to the status quo, by voting Liberals, have no right to complain about its government. I feel like telling these people: “Well, you asked for it! Personally, I am getting tired of people not having the courage to say “no” to being cheated.

How many typical non-voters will blue-22 bring to the polls?

the few (are there any?) that would support the rail would not be “much” enhanced to vote…

Those against it, well, you can bet your bottom dollar they’ll get out to the polls, and it’ll be the rallying cry of the NDP as they “get out their vote”

The enormous effort that the NDP has put in.
The lack-lusture performance of the Liberal candidate…
Recent bi-election result in Parkdale-High Park
2nd poorest riding? $10.00 min wage
2nd poorest riding? 31% pay increase
People that might remember Bob Rae badly…
well, they realize now that he is, (and always was) a misguided Grit.

The cards are stacked.

I take back my prediction about a close race…
the NDP will take it by 5 points.
The Tories would have to break 20% for me to change my opinion on that. and the only riding this poor that the Tories could break 20% in would be my riding, in the heart of the bible belt.

As much as I like Ferreira, I think it will be a Liberal victory by a greatly reduced margin. Turnout will be very low.

LIB 43%
NDP 36%
PC 17%

See “Ontario Elections Today” for our final commentary and “guess-timates” of what might happen.

Wow, this one is a shocker.

So much for my prediction of this being a safe liberal seat.

If i were a grit strategist i would be a little more worried about toronto going into the October election.

NDP - 43
LIB - 41
PC - were not a threat here at all

I called this from the start (amongst my freinds, i wasn’t even that sure so i kept my mouth shut and only said the NDP was a force here) but a close NDP victory looked pretty apparent from the get go. This being a poor riding, somewhat of a protest vote against the LIBs resistance to a popular $10minwage/anger over MPP salaries, resurging confident NDP(old NDP areas). all played into the victory… The Liberals threw in a star, cabinet ministers and the kitchen sink and still lost. Look for Paul to be all over the news like Cheri has been… The NDP now has a taste for blood, the Libs need to be on guard in London, Windsor, Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa and the north.