Not too many surprises in the Presidential election. I had 3 states wrong: Florida, Indiana and North Carolina, which I called for McCain but went for Obama — I was clearly off in Florida, which Obama won by 2.4%. Indiana and North Carolina went to Obama by razor-thin margins, 0.9% and 0.4%, respectively. New Mexico and Nevada went more strongly for Obama than anticipated. And some of the red states went for McCain a little more strongly than I thought. But overall, not too many shockers. On the national vote, Obama did ever-so-slightly better than I expected, by 0.7% overall (since I over-estimated the “others” by 0.7%). I had McCain’s vote exact, at 46.3%. Below are the predicted vs actual for each state.

OVERALL

Barack Obama / 51.7% predicted / 52.4% actual
John McCain / 46.3% predicted / 46.3% actual
Others / 2.0% predicted / 1.3% actual

STATE PREDICTIONS (first number is predicted, second number is actual)

Battlegrounds (10% or less margin)
X – Florida / 27 EVs / McCain +2.6% / Obama +2.4%
Pennsylvania / 21 EVs / Obama +6.2% / Obama +10.3%
Ohio / 20 EVs / Obama +1.1% / Obama +3.8%
X – North Carolina / 15 EVs / McCain +4.8% / Obama +0.4%
Georgia / 15 EVs / McCain +6.0% / McCain +5.5%
Virginia / 13 EVs / Obama +1.9% / Obama +4.5%
Missouri / 11 EVs / McCain +3.5% / McCain +0.2%
X – Indiana / 11 EVs / McCain +4.3% / Obama +0.9%
Minnesota / 10 EVs / Obama +9.8% / Obama +10.2%
Wisconsin / 10 EVs / Obama +9.3% / Obama +13.9%
Arizona / 10 EVs / McCain +5.0% / McCain +8.6%
Colorado / 9 EVs / Obama +5.0% / Obama +6.8%
New Mexico / 5 EVs / Obama +7.9% / Obama +15.1%
Nevada / 5 EVs / Obama +6.9% / Obama +12.4%
New Hampshire / 4 EVs / Obama +9.0% / Obama +9.5%
Montana / 3 EVs / McCain +4.9% / McCain +2.5%
North Dakota / 3 EVs / McCain +4.7% / McCain +8.6%

Safe Democrat (10% or more margin)
California / 55 EVs / Obama +23.6% / Obama +24.0%
New York / 31 EVs / Obama +28.2% / Obama +25.4%
Illinois / 21 EVs / Obama +22.6% / Obama +24.7%
Michigan / 17 EVs / Obama +12.9% / Obama +16.5%
New Jersey / 15 EVs / Obama +15.2% / Obama +14.6%
Massachusetts / 12 EVs / Obama +20.5% / Obama +25.8%
Washington / 11 EVs / Obama +16.1% / Obama +17.3%
Maryland / 10 EVs / Obama +15.6% / Obama +23.1%
Connecticut / 7 EVs / Obama +18.5% / Obama +21.5%
Oregon / 7 EVs / Obama +15.0% / Obama +16.1%
Iowa / 7 EVs / Obama +13.9% / Obama +9.3%
Maine / 4 EVs / Obama +15.1% / Obama +17.3%
Rhode Island / 4 EVs / Obama +22.9% / Obama +28.3%
Hawaii / 4 EVs / Obama +35.4% / Obama +45.2%
Vermont / 3 EVs / Obama +28.3% / Obama +35.2%
Delaware / 3 EVs / Obama +17.2% / Obama +23.7%
D.C. / 3 EVs / Obama +83.6% / Obama +86.4%

Safe Republican (10% or more margin)
Texas / McCain +14.5% / McCain +11.7%
Tennessee / 11 EVs / McCain +12.3% / McCain +15.1%
Louisiana / 9 EVs / McCain +17.7% / McCain +18.7%
Alabama / 9 EVs / McCain +25.1% / McCain +21.6%
Kentucky / 8 EVs / McCain +14.6% / McCain +16.4%
South Carolina / 8 EVs / McCain +10.9% / McCain +8.9%
Oklahoma / 7 EVs / McCain +33.1% / McCain +31.2%
Mississippi / 6 EVs / McCain +10.1% / McCain +13.8%
Kansas / 6 EVs / McCain +13.8% / McCain +15.4%
Arkansas / 6 EVs / McCain +12.6% / McCain +20.0%
Utah / 5 EVs / McCain +34.5% / McCain +28.7%
Nebraska / 5 EVs / McCain +21.9% / McCain +16.1%
West Virginia / 5 EVs / McCain +12.9% / McCain +13.1%
Idaho / 4 EVs / McCain +27.1% / McCain +25.4%
Wyoming / 3 EVs / McCain +24.8% / McCain +32.5%
South Dakota / 3 EVs / McCain +11.7% / McCain +8.5%
Alaska / 3 EVs / McCain +15.9% / McCain +25.3%

OVERALL
Barack Obama / 311 EVs / 51.7% (+5.4%)
John McCain / 227 EVs / 46.3%
Others / – / 2.0%

STATE PREDICTIONS

Battlegrounds (10% or less margin)
Florida / 27 EVs / McCain +2.6%
Pennsylvania / 21 EVs / Obama +6.2%
Ohio / 20 EVs / Obama +1.1%
North Carolina / 15 EVs / McCain +4.8%
Georgia / 15 EVs / McCain +6.0%
Virginia / 13 EVs / Obama +1.9%
Missouri / 11 EVs / McCain +3.5%
Indiana / 11 EVs / McCain +4.3%
Minnesota / 10 EVs / Obama +9.8%
Wisconsin / 10 EVs / Obama +9.3%
Arizona / 10 EVs / McCain +5.0%
Colorado / 9 EVs / Obama +5.0%
New Mexico / 5 EVs / Obama +7.9%
Nevada / 5 EVs / Obama +6.9%
New Hampshire / 4 EVs / Obama +9.0%
Montana / 3 EVs / McCain +4.9%
North Dakota / 3 EVs / McCain +4.7%

Safe Democrat (10% or more margin)
California / 55 EVs / Obama +23.6%
New York / 31 EVs / Obama +28.2%
Illinois / 21 EVs / Obama +22.6%
Michigan / 17 EVs / Obama +12.9%
New Jersey / 15 EVs / Obama +15.2%
Massachusetts / 12 EVs / Obama +20.5%
Washington / 11 EVs / Obama +16.1%
Maryland / 10 EVs / Obama +15.6%
Connecticut / 7 EVs / Obama +18.5%
Oregon / 7 EVs / Obama +15.0%
Iowa / 7 EVs / Obama +13.9%
Maine / 4 EVs / Obama +15.1%
Rhode Island / 4 EVs / Obama +22.9%
Hawaii / 4 EVs / Obama +35.4%
Vermont / 3 EVs / Obama +28.3%
Delaware / 3 EVs / Obama +17.2%
D.C. / 3 EVs / Obama +83.6%

Safe Republican (10% or more margin)
Texas / McCain +14.5%
Tennessee / 11 EVs / McCain +12.3%
Louisiana / 9 EVs / McCain +17.7%
Alabama / 9 EVs / McCain +25.1%
Kentucky / 8 EVs / McCain +14.6%
South Carolina / 8 EVs / McCain +10.9%
Oklahoma / 7 EVs / McCain +33.1%
Mississippi / 6 EVs / McCain +10.1%
Kansas / 6 EVs / McCain +13.8%
Arkansas / 6 EVs / McCain +12.6%
Utah / 5 EVs / McCain +34.5%
Nebraska / 5 EVs / McCain +21.9%
West Virginia / 5 EVs / McCain +12.9%
Idaho / 4 EVs / McCain +27.1%
Wyoming / 3 EVs / McCain +24.8%
South Dakota / 3 EVs / McCain +11.7%
Alaska / 3 EVs / McCain +15.9%

Updated: 2 Nov
Note: Virginia has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)
Note: Ohio has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)
Note: Florida has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)
Note: Nevada has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)
Note: North Carolina has moved into Obama’s column (at least for now)

In case anyone is interested in the U.S. Presidential election, if the election was held today, Barack Obama would win with 353 electoral college votes to John McCain’s 185. But the race is extremely close — there are many states were the margin of victory is 3% or less. These numbers are based on a rolling average of state polls. Below is the breakdown (sorted from most to least electoral college votes). Note: the number in parenthesis is the percentage lead the candidate is ahead and EV means electoral college votes. Top battleground states (where margin-of-victory is 5% or less) are highlighted in red.

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+24.0) — 55 EV
New York (+29.7) — 31 EV
Florida (+4.1) — 27 EV
Illinois (+23.5) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+7.0) — 21 EV
Ohio (+4.2) — 20 EV
Michigan (+12.7) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+15.3) — 15 EV
North Carolina (+0.3) — 15 EV
Virginia (+5.0) — 13 EV
Massachusetts (+23.7) — 12 EV
Washington (+17.0) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+11.5) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+11.0) — 10 EV
Maryland (+11.4) — 10 EV
Colorado (+5.5) — 9 EV
Connecticut (+19.3) — 7 EV
Oregon (+15.6) — 7 EV
Iowa (+15.3) — 7 EV
New Mexico (+7.3) — 5 EV
Nevada (+5.8) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+10.7) — 4 EV
Maine (+15.6) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+22.7) — 4 EV
Hawaii (+35.5) — 4 EV
Vermont (+24.5) — 3 EV
Delaware (+17.6) — 3 EV
D.C. (-) — 3 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 364 EV

(more…)

Updated: 2 Nov

While the raw poll numbers are interesting, what’s really surprising is which states are swinging most towards Barack Obama. Comparing the 2004 presidential results with the current polling average shows that Obama has made huge gains in some traditionally Republican states. Two regions stand out: the Mid-West and Mountain regions. Obama won’t win many of these states, but the swing towards him is often dramatic and bodes well for the Democrats in the future.

Not surprisingly, Hawaii is the biggest shift (since Obama is from there). But many of the other big swings are surprising: North Dakota, Indiana, Wyoming, Montana, Virginia, Idaho, and Nebraska, South Dakota, Kansas, Colorado, and Iowa for example have all shifted towards significantly towards Obama.

In fact, only 4 states are currently polling higher for McCain than what Bush received in 2004, but even there only by 1-2 points: ironically Massachusetts (no doubt because its senator, John Kerry, ran in 2004), Maryland (although the polling data is old here, so Obama might actually be ahead of Kerry), and Louisiana (possibly because many African-Americans left the state following Hurricane Katrina). Note: the data for several small non-competitive states (Vermont, Rhode Island, etc) is quite old, so Obama may be much higher now in these states.

Last updated: Sept 8, 2008

The Presidential race is neck-and-neck — as of today, Barack Obama has 273 electoral college votes to John McCain’s 265. Here is the latest state-by-state breakdown (sorted from most to least electoral college votes). Note: the number in parenthesis is the percentage lead the candidate is ahead and EV means electoral college votes. Top battleground states (where margin-of-victory is 5% or less) are highlighted in red.

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+17.4) — 55 EV
New York (+16.0) — 31 EV
Illinois (+21.7) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+4.7) — 21 EV
Michigan (+2.8) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+8.7) — 15 EV
Massachusetts (+12.6) — 12 EV
Washington (+9.7) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+7.0) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+5.3) — 10 EV
Maryland (+11.4) — 10 EV
Colorado (+1.0) — 9 EV
Connecticut (+18.6) — 7 EV
Oregon (+7.0) — 7 EV
Iowa (+9.0) — 7 EV
New Mexico (+4.3) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+0.3) — 4 EV
Maine (+15.0) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+24.3) — 4 EV
Hawaii (-) — 4 EV
Vermont (-) — 3 EV
Delaware (-) — 3 EV
D.C. (-) — 3 EV
—
TOTAL — Barack Obama 273 EV

McCain beats in Obama in:

Texas (+10.8) — 34 EV
Florida (+3.0) — 27 EV
Ohio (+1.3) — 20 EV
North Carolina (+7.4) — 15 EV
Georgia (+6.3) — 15 EV
Virginia (+0.7) — 13 EV
Indiana (+4.7) — 11 EV
Missouri (+7.0) — 11 EV
Tennessee (+18.7) — 11 EV
Arizona (+11.7) — 10 EV
Louisiana (+16.7) — 9 EV
Alabama (+21.6) — 9 EV
Kentucky (+16.0) — 8 EV
South Carolina (+9.4) — 8 EV
Oklahoma (+26.4) — 7 EV
Mississippi (+11.7) — 6 EV
Kansas (+16.0) — 6 EV
Arkansas (+16.3) — 6 EV
Nevada (+1.0) — 5 EV
Utah (+27.3) — 5 EV
Nebraska (+18.7) — 5 EV
West Virginia (+13.0) — 5 EV
Idaho (+14.5) — 4 EV
Montana (+9.0) — 3 EV
Wyoming (+23.0) — 3 EV
North Dakota (+1.0) — 3 EV
South Dakota (+8.8) — 3 EV
Alaska (+11.7) — 3 EV
—
TOTAL – John McCain 265 EV

John McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin is crass political pandering of the worst kind. Palin can be proud of her accomplishments to date — running a fishery business, beauty queen, local councilor then mayor of a small town, married, having 5 kids, and 18 months as governor of Alaska — but in no way is she qualified for a Vice President’s most important role: to replace the President should he become incapacitated. Sorry folks, Palin is not better than the host of people McCain passed over — Mitt Romney, Tom Ridge, Joe Lieberman, Rudy Guliani, and so on.

Instead, Palin represents the remainder of an electoral calculus equation. In short, she was the last man woman standing after McCain checked off a series of boxes, each designed to pander to a different slice of the American electorate. The most obvious pander is McCain’s attempt to appeal to women, especially given how close Hillary Clinton came to winning the Democratic nomination. But no less significant, in selecting the strongly pro-life Palin, McCain is pandering to the far right of his party, which has not embraced his candidacy. And, in selecting a working-class “hockey mom” (together with her husband, a blue collar “average Joe” fisherman), McCain is also pandering to the (white) working-class.

What is particularly galling — apart from the fact that McCain’s pandering might actually work — is what Palin represents –especially in pandering to women and the working-class — are entirely skin-deep. That is, McCain is counting on women and working-class folks to simply vote for his ticket simply because of what he and Palin look like and not what they stand for.

And that’s because women and working-class folks are precisely the people who stand to lose under a McCain presidency. McCain has already said he will appoint Conservative judges to the Supreme Court. It is safe to assume that they will, sooner or later, overturn Roe v. Wade, thus taking away a woman’s right to choose — which is fine for pro-lifers, but this is not at all in the interest of most women. Moreover, McCain’s economic policies are not geared towards the working-class. On the contrary, they favor the highest income earners. In both cases, there is little doubt that women and the working-class would be far better off under Barack Obama’s policies.

So why might McCain’s choice of Palin work? Because the age of reality-television (where everyday folks can be stars too!) has fed into our own narsassism, to the point where the majority of Americans now decide how to cast their ballot according to how closely the candidate mirrors themselves (or at best, with whom we’d rather have a beer!). Yes, we’ve entered the realm of mirror politics — if you look like me, you must share my values and understand my concerns, right? Palin — the self-described hockey mom — fits the bill. So does John McCain. They look like the majority of Americans. Barack Obama? Not so much. Hold a mirror up to yourself, that’s who you really want running the country, right? And that’s why McCain’s calculating selection of Palin might be just the edge he needs, even if it represents a new low in American politics.

The choices couldn’t be clearer this fall — Barack Obama has made a bet that Americans are smarter than their politics, while John McCain has bet the exact opposite — that they are really that dumb. It remains to be seen who will win that bet.

Last updated: Aug 18, 2008

If the Presidential election was held today, Barack Obama would win — 275 electoral college votes to John McCain’s 263. Here is the latest state-by-state breakdown (sorted from most to least electoral college votes). Note: the number in parenthesis is the percentage lead the candidate is ahead and EV means electoral college votes. Top battleground states (where margin-of-victory is 5% or less) are highlighted in red.

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+15.3) — 55 EV
New York (+16.0) — 31 EV
Illinois (+21.7) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+6.8) — 21 EV
Michigan (+3.2) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+10.7) — 15 EV
Massachusetts (+12.6) — 12 EV
Washington (+10.5) — 11 EV
Indiana (+0.5) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+2.6) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+7.2) — 10 EV
Connecticut (+18.6) — 7 EV
Oregon (+7.0) — 7 EV
Iowa (+5.7) — 7 EV
New Mexico (+5.2) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+1.4) — 4 EV
Maine (+15.0) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+22.4) — 4 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 275 EV

McCain beats in Obama in:

Texas (+10.5) — 34 EV
Florida (+1.8) — 27 EV
Ohio (+1.5) — 20 EV
North Carolina (+4.3) — 15 EV
Georgia (+6.3) — 15 EV
Virginia (+0.6) — 13 EV
Missouri (+2.3) — 11 EV
Tennessee (+15.3) — 11 EV
Arizona (+13.7) — 10 EV
Colorado (+0.5) — 9 EV
Louisiana (+16.7) — 9 EV
Alabama (+21.6) — 9 EV
Kentucky (+16.0) — 8 EV
South Carolina (+9.4) — 8 EV
Oklahoma (+29.0) — 7 EV
Mississippi (+11.3) — 6 EV
Kansas (+11.7) — 6 EV
Arkansas (+16.3) — 6 EV
Nevada (+2.4) — 5 EV
Utah (+23.3) — 5 EV
Nebraska (+18.7) — 5 EV
West Virginia (+13.0) — 5 EV
Idaho (+14.5) — 4 EV
Montana (+5.3) — 3 EV
Wyoming (+16.0) — 3 EV
North Dakota (+1.0) — 3 EV
South Dakota (+8.8) — 3 EV
Alaska (+7.0) — 3 EV
—
TOTAL – John McCain 263 EV

Note
Unpolled safe Democrat states (23 EV)
Maryland (10), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), Delaware (3), and DC (3).

Last updated: July 31, 2008

If the Presidential election was held today, Barack Obama would win — 322 electoral college votes to John McCain’s 216. Here is the latest state-by-state breakdown (sorted from most to least electoral college votes). Note: the number in parenthesis is the percentage lead the candidate is ahead and EV means electoral college votes. Top battleground states (where margin-of-victory is 5% or less) are highlighted in red.

Obama beats in McCain in:

California (+15.3) — 55 EV
New York (+20.4) — 31 EV
Illinois (+21.0) — 21 EV
Pennsylvania (+7.4) — 21 EV
Ohio (+0.5) — 20 EV
Michigan (+4.3) — 17 EV
New Jersey (+9.6) — 15 EV
Virginia (+1.0) — 13 EV
Massachusetts (+18.7) — 12 EV
Washington (+10.6) — 11 EV
Indiana (+0.5) — 11 EV
Minnesota (+5.3) — 10 EV
Wisconsin (+10.7) — 10 EV
Colorado (+1.7) — 9 EV
Connecticut (+20.0) — 7 EV
Oregon (+6.7) — 7 EV
Iowa (+7.4) — 7 EV
Nevada (+1.7) — 5 EV
New Mexico (+5.2) — 5 EV
New Hampshire (+1.4) — 4 EV
Maine (+11.0) — 4 EV
Rhode Island (+22.4) — 4 EV
–
TOTAL — Barack Obama 322 EV

McCain beats in Obama in:

Texas (+10.5) — 34 EV
Florida (+0.5) — 27 EV
North Carolina (+3.7) — 15 EV
Georgia (+7.0) — 15 EV
Missouri (+2.0) — 11 EV
Tennessee (+16.0) — 11 EV
Arizona (+10.0) — 10 EV
Louisiana (+16.7) — 9 EV
Alabama (+20.0) — 9 EV
Kentucky (+14.0) — 8 EV
South Carolina (+9.4) — 8 EV
Oklahoma (+29.0) — 7 EV
Mississippi (+11.3) — 6 EV
Kansas (+14.7) — 6 EV
Arkansas (+16.3) — 6 EV
Utah (+23.3) — 5 EV
Nebraska (+18.7) — 5 EV
West Virginia (+13.0) — 5 EV
Idaho (+14.5) — 4 EV
Montana (+5.3) — 3 EV
Wyoming (+16.0) — 3 EV
North Dakota (+1.0) — 3 EV
South Dakota (+8.8) — 3 EV
Alaska (+7.0) — 3 EV
—
TOTAL – John McCain 216 EV

Note
Unpolled safe Democrat states (23 EV)
Maryland (10), Hawaii (4), Vermont (3), Delaware (3), and DC (3).

Updated: June 9 @ 7:55 PT

As it stands now, according to Real Clear Politics, Barack Obama has 1,766.5 elected delegates to Hillary Clinton’s 1,639.5 — a lead of 127 (including Florida and Michigan). Among superdelegates, Obama leads 463 to 257 — a lead of 206. So overall Obama has a 333-delegate lead (2,229.5 to 1,896.5). Here are some best guesses for the upcoming races…

As you can see, at present, it looks like Obama will end up 127 elected delegates ahead, and 235 superdelegates ahead, so overall Obama is ahead by 362. I’ll continue to update this as new polls are released. Note the new “magic number” to clinch the nomination is 2,118.