Here are the latest DemocraticSPACE aggregated polling numbers and corresponding seat projections (in parentheses). Note that in most cases current projections do not adjust for individual candidates, as not all candidates have been nominated yet. Projections are a snap-shot in time, based on current polling. Note also that the reliability of projections increases as the frequency of polls increases, so current projections are not as reliable as they are during the campaign period (when there are many polls).

National (9 Apr - 1 May, +/- 1.2%)
Conservative — 34.5% (120)
Liberal — 31.1% (115)
NDP — 15.7% (26)
Green — 9.1% (0)
Bloc — 8.5% (45)
Other — 1.0% (2)

Ontario (9 Apr - 1 May, +/- 2.1%)
Liberal — 40.9% (61)
Conservative — 32.5% (36)
NDP — 14.5% (9)
Green — 11.2% (0)
Other — 0.9% (0)

Québec (9 Apr - 1 May, +/- 2.4%)
Bloc — 34.2% (45)
Conservative — 23.4% (11)
Liberal — 22.7% (17)
NDP — 12.6% (1)
Green — 6.1% (0)
Other — 1.0% (1)

British Columbia (7 Apr - 1 May, +/- 3.3%)
Conservative — 34.5% (18)
Liberal — 27.8% (10)
NDP — 21.4% (8)
Green — 15.0% (0)
Other — 1.2% (0)

Alberta (7 Apr - 1 May, +/- 3.9%)
Conservative — 58.6% (28)
Liberal — 17.5% (0)
Green — 11.3% (0)
NDP — 11.0% (0)
Other — 1.6% (0)

Prairies (7 Apr - 1 May, +/- 4.2%)
Conservative — 40.8% (19)
NDP — 25.2% (4)
Liberal — 21.7% (5)
Green — 10.6% (0)
Other — 1.7% (0)

Atlantic Canada (7 Apr - 1 May, +/- 3.7%)
Liberal — 40.0% (20)
Conservative — 32.0% (8)
NDP — 20.9% (3)
Green — 6.6% (0)
Other — 0.6% (1)

Someone created a DemocraticSPACE page on Facebook, for all you die-hard DS fans. Click HERE to join the DemocraticSPACE blog network. I think you need to add the Blog Networks application, if you haven’t done so already.

In a follow-up to my earlier post, TTC workers have rejected the deal their union leadership had accepted from TTC management. Going against its previous claims to provide a 48-hour strike notice, the TTC union shut down the system Friday at midnight without any notice, stranding thousands. Despite improved health benefits, a 3% per year pay raise, and a clause that ensures TTC drivers are the best-paid throughout the GTA (meaning if Mississauga workers get a raise, TTC drivers will get another raise), 65% of TTC workers voted against the deal.

Shutting down the TTC without any warning is simply irresponsible. Moreover, it is dangerous to strand people at midnight with few other options to get home at that hour. The TTC unions just squandered any goodwill Torontonians had left. There’s little doubt that they will be ordered back to work. If the legislature sits tomorrow, the TTC could be back up for Monday. And from Adam Giambrone’s (TTC chair) comments, TTC workers shouldn’t expect to see any more money on the table.

If an election was held today in Canada, the Conservatives would win a weak minority, according to the latest DemocraticSPACE seat projections (which are based on a weighted average of recent polling data; note these projections are at this point rough since many candidates have not been nominated, so adjustments for candidates have, in most cases, not been made). Below are the regional breakdowns (number in parenthesis represents projected seats).

National (7 Apr - 13 Apr, +/- 1.2%)
Conservative — 34.6% (122)
Liberal — 30.6% (112)
NDP — 15.5% (26)
Green — 10.0% (0)
Bloc — 8.3% (46)
Other — 1.0% (2)

Ontario (7 Apr - 13 Apr, +/- 2.0%)
Liberal — 39.0% (57)
Conservative — 33.7% (39)
NDP — 14.9% (10)
Green — 11.5% (0)
Other — 0.9% (0)

Québec (7 Apr - 13 Apr, +/- 2.3%)
Bloc — 34.3% (46)
Conservative — 23.3% (10)
Liberal — 22.0% (18)
NDP — 11.2% (0)
Green — 8.2% (0)
Other — 1.0% (1)

British Columbia (20 Mar - 13 Apr, +/- 3.1%)
Conservative — 35.3% (18)
Liberal — 27.2% (10)
NDP — 21.4% (8)
Green — 14.9% (0)
Other — 1.2% (0)

Alberta (2 Mar - 10 Apr, +/- 3.4%)
Conservative — 61.9% (28)
Liberal — 17.7% (0)
Green — 10.4% (0)
NDP — 8.4% (0)
Other — 1.6% (0)

Prairies (2 Mar - 10 Apr, +/- 3.8%)
Conservative — 42.3% (19)
Liberal — 22.9% (5)
NDP — 22.5% (4)
Green — 10.6% (0)
Other — 1.7% (0)

Atlantic Canada (16 Mar - 13 Apr, +/- 3.4%)
Liberal — 40.3% (20)
Conservative — 31.4% (8)
NDP — 20.7% (3)
Green — 7.0% (0)
Other — 0.6% (1)

A plethora of new polls came out the last few days, including Segma/Unimarketing poll (Apr 9), Ipsos-Reid (Apr 10), Strategic Counsel (Apr 13), and Harris-Decima (Apr 13). Here are the latest rolling averages.

Updated: Apr 17 @ 12:50 PT

National (28 Mar - 13 Apr, +/- 1.1%)
1 Conservative — 34.6% (range: 33.5% to 35.7%) / change from 2006 election: -1.7%
2 Liberal — 30.7% (range: 29.6% to 31.8%) / change: +0.5%
3 NDP — 15.3% (range: 14.2% to 16.4%) / change: -2.2%
4 Green — 9.5% (range: 8.4% to 10.6%) / change: +5.0%
5 Bloc — 8.9% (range: 7.8% to 10.0%) / change: -1.6%

Ontario (20 Mar - 13 Apr, +/- 2.0%)
1 Liberal — 40.4% (range: 38.4% to 42.4%) / change: +0.5%
2 Conservative — 34.0% (range: 32.0% to 36.0%) / change: -1.1%
3 NDP — 14.4% (range: 12.4% to 16.4%) / change: -5.0%
4 Green — 10.3% (range: 8.3% to 12.3%) / change: +5.6%

Quebec (20 Mar - 13 Apr, +/- 2.3%)
1 Bloc — 35.6% (range: 33.3% to 37.9%) / change: -6.5%
2 Conservative — 24.0% (range: 21.7% to 26.3%) / change: -0.2%
3 Liberal — 21.9% (range: 19.6% to 24.2%) / change: +1.1%
4 NDP — 10.6% (range: 8.3% to 12.9%) / change: +3.1%
5 Green — 6.9% (range: 4.6% to 9.2%) / change: +2.9%

British Columbia (6 Mar - 10 Apr, +/- 3.3%)
1 Conservative — 38.4% (range: 35.1% to 41.7%) / change: +1.1%
2 Liberal — 26.2% (range: 22.9% to 29.5%) / change: -1.4%
3 NDP — 20.9% (range: 17.6% to 24.2%) / change: -7.7%
4 Green — 13.3% (range: 10.0% to 16.6%) / change: +8.0%

Alberta (24 Feb - 10 Apr, +/- 3.6%)
1 Conservative — 61.3% (range: 57.7% to 64.9%) / change: -3.7%
2 Liberal — 17.7% (range: 14.1% to 21.3%) / change: +2.4%
3 Green — 9.9% (range: 6.3% to 13.5%) / change: +3.4%
4 NDP — 9.5% (range: 5.9% to 13.1%) / change: -2.1%

Prairies (24 Feb - 10 Apr, +/- 4.5%)
1 Conservative — 45.5% (range: 41.0% to 50.0%) / change: -0.2%
2 Liberal — 23.3% (range: 18.8% to 27.8%) / change: -1.0%
3 NDP — 20.1% (range: 15.6% to 24.6%) / change: -4.7%
4 Green — 9.4% (range: 4.9% to 13.9%) / change: +5.5%

Atlantic Canada (16 Mar - 10 Apr, +/- 4.3%)
1 Liberal — 41.5% (range: 37.2% to 45.8%) / change: +1.2%
2 Conservative — 33.1% (range: 28.8% to 37.4%) / change: -1.0%
3 NDP — 20.6% (range: 16.3% to 24.9%) / change: -2.1%
4 Green — 4.2% (range: 0% to 8.5%) / change: +1.9%

Based on these numbers, a current ballpark estimate of seats is:

Conservative — 124 seats (0 change from 2006)
Liberal — 111 seats (+8)
Bloc — 47 seats (-4)
NDP — 22 seats (-7)
Independent — 2 seats (+1)
Green — 0 seats (0)

A close examination of the political dynamics in Canada’s various reasons helps explain why neither the Liberals, nor the Conservatives (or NDP or Bloc, for that matter) have any great desire for a spring election. Below is a region-by-region analysis of the current state of Canadian politics (quoted support levels reflect our weighted average of recent polling data).

Ontario

As of right now, the Liberals and Greens are up 1.6% and 4.5% respectively over 2006, while the Conservatives and NDP are down 1.6% and 4.5% respectively. More so than anything else, this solidifying of Liberal support in Ontario has dampened Conservative enthusiasm for a spring election. Why? Because the Conservatives won several seats by narrow margins in 2006. The small swing of 3.2% (Liberals up 1.6, Conservatives down 1.6) could result in many ridings going back to the Liberals — for example, Parry Sound-Muskoka (0.1% margin in 2006), Glengarry-Prescott-Russell (0.4%), St. Catharines (0.5%), Ottawa-Orléans (2.0%), Simcoe North (2.0%), Barrie (2.7%), Kitchener-Conestoga (2.7%), and Halton (2.8%), especially now that Garth Turner is a Liberal. Moreover, the weakening of the NDP in Ontario (to the benefit of the Greens), a swing of 7.1% (Liberals up 1.6, NDP down 4.5), could also put several NDP-held ridings back into Liberal hands — for example, Hamilton East-Stoney Creek (0.8% margin in 2006), London-Fanshawe (1.9%), Parkdale-High Park (4.5%) especially with Gerard Kennedy as the Liberal candidate, Sault Ste. Marie (4.7%), Hamilton Mountain (5.5%), and even Olivia Chow in Trinity-Spadina (5.9%). This dual dynamic — both the Conservatives and NDP falling — could result in as many as 13 seats shifting to the Liberals, 7 coming at the expense of the Conservatives and 6 at the expense of the NDP.

Québec

As of right now, the Liberals, NDP and Greens are up 2.8%, 3.1% and 1.8% respectively over 2006, while the Conservatives and Bloc Québécois are down 2.4% and 5.3% respectively. Following the poor performance of the Parti Québécois in the spring 2007 election, there is cause for concern among Bloquistes. Contrary to popular belief, however, at this point, the beneficiary of the Bloc’s fall is the Liberal Party, not the Conservatives. The Bloc won several ridings by narrow margins over the Liberals in 2006. With an 8.1% swing (Bloc down 5.3, Liberals up 2.8), it is possible that ridings such as Ahuntsic (1.7% margin in 2006), Papineau (2.2%), Brossard-La Prairie (2.2%), Jeanne-Le Ber (6.1%), and Gatineau (7.9%) could revert back to the Liberals. The Conservatives should hold the seats they won in 2006, but with a swing of just 2.9% (Bloc down 5.3, Conservatives down 2.4), they are not yet in a position to pick up additional seats. A few seats are within striking distance, given the Bloc’s falling support — Roberval–Lac-Saint-Jean (8.0% margin in 2006), Gaspésie–ÃŽles-de-la-Madeleine (10.5%), Saint-Maurice–Saint-Champlain (11.3%), for example — but we have to see the Conservatives strengthen or the Bloc falling further for these seats to flip into the Conservative column. One big unknown is whether the NDP can hold its by-election pick-up in Outremont during a general election. History suggests that the Liberals perform much better during general elections than by-elections, but you can bet the NDP will put everything it has into holding that seat; as such, it is too close to call. The current dynamic suggests the Liberals could gain 5 or 6 seats — 5 at the expense of the Bloc and 1 at the expense of the NDP (if the NDP cannot hold Outremont).

British Columbia

The big story in B.C. is the precipitous drop of the NDP (down 7.4%), to the benefit of the Greens (up 8.5%), who are now showing a solid 13.8% support across the province. This dynamic benefits the Conservatives, who narrowly lost several ridings to the NDP in 2006. The 8.4% shift we are seeing (Conservatives up 1.0, NDP down 7.4) could put ridings such as Vancouver Island North (1.1% margin in 2006) and Burnaby-New Westminster (5.8%) back into Conservative hands. With the Liberals falling less than the NDP (2.1 versus the NDP’s 7.4), we could also see the Liberals take Burnaby-Douglas (2.6% margin in 2006), but the Liberals are also likely to lose West Vancouver-Sunshine Coast-Sea-to-Sky Country (1.5%) to the Conservatives, especially with Blair Wilson now out of the Liberal caucus. The net result suggests the Conservatives could pick up 3 additional seats, the Liberals holding the same, and the NDP losing 3 seats.

Alberta

As we might expect, there is essentially no change in Alberta. The current dynamic shows the NDP dropping 5.2%, to the benefit of the Liberals (3.2%) and the Greens (2.7%), but not enough to prevent the Conservatives from sweeping the board.

Prairies

We’re not seeing much change in the Prairies, either. The Greens are showing increased strength (up 6.6%), at the expense of both the Liberals ( down 3.3%) and NDP (down 3.3%), but this may or may not be a statistical anomaly given more limited polling data, since the Prairies — ironically — have never been fertile ground for the Greens. We would expect the Conservatives to retain the seat they picked up in the by-election (Desnethé-Missinippi-Churchill River), giving them one more than in 2006, while all others remain the same.

Atlantic Canada

Atlantic Canada continues to be an enigma for the Conservatives. Overall there isn’t much change from 2006, but with two MPs leaving the Conservative caucus in key ridings — Bill Casey having been expelled for voting against the budget (now running as an independent) and Norman Doyle retiring — the Conservatives could lose both Cumberland-Colchester-Musquodoboit Valley and St. John’s East, especially with the Liberals up 1.7% and the Conservatives down 2.7%. This 4.4% shift also could see Tobique-Mactaquac in New Brunswick (0.9% margin in 2006) fall back into Liberal hands. The net result would be a Liberal gain of 2 and one additional independent MP (Casey).

The North

We have no polling data for the North, but we don’t anticipate radical changes from 2006. With Liberal MP Nancy Karetak-Lindell retiring, we might expect a more competitive race in Nunavut, but the Liberals probably hold the seat. Overall, no change from 2006.

Overall

Although the Conservatives (down 1.3% from 2006) hold a narrow statistically-significant lead over the Liberals (up 0.6%) — overall 35.0% to 30.8%, +/- 1.4% — with the NDP down 2.6% nationally (to 14.9% +/- 1.4%), the dynamic suggests that if an election were held today, the Conservatives and Liberals could win roughly the same number of seats (115-120 seats) — in either case, a weak minority — with the NDP dropping to about 20 seats and the Bloc (down 5.3% in Québec) falling to 46, plus 2 independents. Easily the biggest gains nationally have been made by the Greens (up 4.7% — the only party with significant gains), but without any natural concentrations of support, unless the Greens can mount upsets in a few key ridings (such as Elizabeth May in Central Nova or Adriane Carr in Vancouver Centre), they could again be the hottest thing in Canadian politics, but without any seats to show for it.

Here are the latest polling numbers for the Canadian political parties, based on a weighted average of the last 5 polls, including the latest Nanos poll (Apr 9). Note that these polls are generally quite far apart (unlike immediately before or during a campaign) so we’ll need to see more frequent polling in the smaller regions to have greater confidence in the averaging. But this is where we are now…

Updated: Apr 11 @ 12:50 PT

National (16 Mar - 9 Apr, +/- 1.3%)
1 Conservative — 35.0% (range: 33.7% to 36.3%) / change from 2006 election: -1.3%
2 Liberal — 30.8% (range: 29.5% to 32.1%) / change: +0.6%
3 NDP — 14.9% (range: 13.6% to 16.2%) / change: -2.6%
4 Green — 9.2% (range: 7.9% to 10.5%) / change: +4.7%
5 Bloc — 9.2% (range: 7.9% to 10.5%) / change: -1.3%

Ontario (16 Mar - 9 Apr, +/- 2.3%)
1 Liberal — 41.3% (range: 39.0% to 43.6%) / change: +1.4%
2 Conservative — 33.2% (range: 30.9% to 35.5%) / change: -1.9%
3 NDP — 14.8% (range: 12.5% to 17.1%) / change: -4.6%
4 Green — 9.1% (range: 6.8% to 11.4%) / change: +4.4%

Quebec (16 Mar - 9 Apr, +/- 2.9%)
1 Bloc — 36.8% (range: 33.9% to 39.7%) / change: -5.3%
2 Liberal — 23.6% (range: 20.7% to 26.5%) / change: +2.8%
3 Conservative — 22.2% (range: 19.3% to 25.1%) / change: -2.0%
4 NDP — 10.6% (range: 7.7% to 13.5%) / change: +3.1%
5 Green — 5.8% (range: 2.9% to 8.7%) / change: +1.8%

British Columbia (6 Mar - 30 Mar, +/- 3.9%)
1 Conservative — 38.3% (range: 34.4% to 42.2%) / change: +1.0%
2 Liberal — 25.5% (range: 21.6% to 29.4%) / change: -2.1%
3 NDP — 21.2% (range: 17.3% to 25.1%) / change: -7.4%
4 Green — 13.8% (range: 9.9% to 17.7%) / change: +8.5%

Alberta (6 Mar - 28 Mar, +/- 4.5%)
1 Conservative — 64.3% (range: 59.8% to 68.8%) / change: -0.7%
2 Liberal — 18.5% (range: 14.0% to 23.0%) / change: +3.2%
3 Green — 9.2% (range: 4.7% to 13.7%) / change: +2.7%
4 NDP — 6.4% (range: 1.9% to 10.9%) / change: -5.2%

Prairies (24 Feb - 28 Mar, +/- 5.8%)
1 Conservative — 45.7% (range: 39.9% to 51.5%) / change: 0%
2 NDP — 21.5% (range: 15.7% to 27.3%) / change: -3.3%
3 Liberal — 21.1% (range: 15.3% to 26.9%) / change: -3.2%
4 Green — 10.5% (range: 4.7% to 16.3%) / change: +6.6%

Atlantic Canada (16 Mar - 9 Apr, +/- 5.5%)
1 Liberal — 41.6% (range: 36.1% to 47.1%) / change: +1.3%
2 Conservative — 31.8% (range: 26.3% to 37.3%) / change: -2.3%
3 NDP — 20.8% (range: 15.3% to 26.3%) / change: -1.9%
4 Green — 5.3% (range: 0% to 10.8%) / change: +3.0%

DemocraticSPACE is pleased to announce the launch of coverage for the 2008 Alberta general election, to be held 3 March 2008. Feel free to start up a conversation on the issues and riding-by-riding discussion forums, check out our latest seat projections, take a look at the latest polls, or peruse the latest articles.

The direct link is http://www.democraticSPACE.com/alberta2008/.

Note: we are in the midst of moving the site to a new format, so please bear with us until the blog is moved over. We’re launching the Alberta site, in part, to test the new format.

FYI, in case you are wondering where we’ve been, we are in the process of re-designing the site and preparing for an anticipated spring 2008 Canadian election call. DemocraticSPACE will re-launch soon.

Senate reform appears to be back on the table. Why do we need Senate reform? Apart from being unaccountable (since it is appointed), the regional representation bears no relation to population. So if you want an elected Senate (or technically, Senators appointed on the advice of the people), then you also need to bring representation more in line with population distribution. This will necessarily be imperfect, because it is believed that reforms must obtain the support of 7 of 10 provinces. Practically speaking that means that no more than 3 provinces can lose Senate seats.

First, I propose adopting the government’s former bill C-56, with one small change. This would grant Alberta 5 more MPs, BC 7 more MPs and Ontario 13 more MPs (the government’s bill adds 10). All other provinces/territories remain the same. The House of Commons would therefore have 333 MPs:

House of Commons
Ontario 119 (+13 from today)
Quebec 75 (0)
B.C. 43 (+7)
Alberta 33 (+5)
Manitoba 14 (0)
Saskatchewan 14 (0)
Nova Scotia 11 (0)
New Brunswick 10 (0)
Newfoundland & Labrador 7 (0)
P.E.I. 4 (0)
Northwest Territories 1 (0)
Yukon 1 (0)
Nunavut 1 (0)
TOTAL = 333

The Senate would be comprised of 37 Senators from 3 regions (not unlike Canadian junior hockey!): East (Quebec eastward), West (Manitoba westward, including the North), Central (Ontario), for a total of 111, a ratio of exactly 3 MPs per Senator. Therefore, Senators would be elected in districts that are, on average, the size of 3 ridings (i.e. every 3 ridings would become a Senate district). In the case of the 4 biggest provinces, some urban Senate districts will be 4 ridings large and in the case of the smaller provinces, some Senate districts will the same size as ridings. The distribution would be as follows (* = provinces supporting the reform plan):

Senate
East:
*Quebec 25 (+1 from today)
*P.E.I. 4 (0)
Nova Scotia 4 (-6)
New Brunswick 4 (-6)
Newfoundland & Labrador 4 (-2)
TOTAL = 37

West:
*British Columbia 12 (+6)
*Alberta 10 (+4)
*Manitoba 6 (0)
*Saskatchewan 6 (0)
Northwest Territories 1 (0)
Yukon 1 (0)
Nunavut 1 (0)
TOTAL = 37

Central:
*Ontario 37 (+13)
TOTAL = 37
SENATE TOTAL = 111

Obviously, 3 provinces lose out: Nova Scotia, New Brunswick and Newfoundland & Labrador, since they are currently over-represented. This new alignment simply grants all provinces in Atlantic Canada 4 Senate seats. Ontario, B.C., Alberta, and Quebec all gain Senate seats, while the territories, Saskatchewan, Manitoba and P.E.I. all stay the same. This means that 7 of 10 provinces gain or stay the same, hopefully allowing the reforms to pass (with NS, NB and NL opposing).

So, what would these new 3-riding (on average) Senate districts look like? A few examples:

NORTHWEST ONTARIO (ON) DISTRICT, comprised of:
Kenora
Thunder Bay-Rainy River
Thunder Bay-Superior North

LONDON (ON) DISTRICT, comprised of:
London-Fanshawe
London North Centre
London West

CENTRAL TORONTO (ON) DISTRICT, comprised of:
St. Paul’s
Trinity-Spadina
Toronto Centre

VICTORIA (BC) DISTRICT, comprised of:
Victoria
Saanich-Gulf Islands
Esquimalt-Juan de Fuca

LAVAL (QC) DISTRICT, comprised of:
Alfred-Pellan
Laval
Laval-les-Iles

and so on…

Senators would serve 8 year terms (I have no problem with Senators being allowed to stand for re-election, but perhaps a 2- or 3-term limit would be wise). Senate elections would be staggered, with half being elected in each election cycle (i.e. every 4 years on fixed election dates). So, every other election (i.e. every 8 years on fixed election dates, House of Commons elections are every 4 years on fixed election dates), in addition to casting a ballot for your local MP, you also cast a ballot for your district Senator (with every 3 ridings, on average, comprising a Senate district).

This would represent real Senate reform.