9:58PM
DemocraticSPACE has seen enough. With just over 10% of the vote reporting, we believe that the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair will win Outremont. The race may tighten up, but the trend is clear.

9:58PM - POLLS REPORTING: 60/168
NDP / MULCAIR / 3335 / 48.4%
LIB / COULON / 2000 / 29.0%
BQ / GILSON / 636 / 9.2%
CPC / DUGUAY / 606 / 8.8%
GRN / PILON / 175 / 2.5%

Stay tuned…

Stay tuned for live elections results from Outremont.

Note: because the result change quickly, I will list only the top 5 (with my apologies to the remaining 7 candidates) - I hope to do a full update periodically.

9:09PM - POLLS REPORTING: 1/168
LIB / COULON / 13 / 52.0%
NDP / MULCAIR / 8 / 32.0%
GRN / PILON / 3 / 12.0%
BQ / GILSON / 1 / 4.0%
CPC / DUGUAY / 0 / 0.0%

9:12PM - POLLS REPORTING: 2/168
LIB / COULON / 39 / 53.4%
NDP / MULCAIR / 15 / 20.5%
BQ / GILSON / 6 / 8.2%
GRN / PILON / 5 / 6.8%
CPC / DUGUAY / 3 / 4.1%

9:13PM - POLLS REPORTING: 3/168
LIB / COULON / 65 / 42.8%
NDP / MULCAIR / 56 / 36.8%
BQ / GILSON / 12 / 7.9%
CPC / DUGUAY / 9 / 5.9%
GRN / PILON / 5 / 3.3%

9:15PM - POLLS REPORTING: 4/168
NDP / MULCAIR / 95 / 43.2%
LIB / COULON / 76 / 34.5%
CPC / DUGUAY / 21 / 9.5%
BQ / GILSON / 16 / 7.3%
GRN / PILON / 5 / 2.3%

9:18PM - POLLS REPORTING: 5/168
NDP / MULCAIR / 191 / 49.2%
LIB / COULON / 116 / 29.9%
BQ / GILSON / 31 / 8.0%
CPC / DUGUAY / 22 / 5.7%
GRN / PILON / 14 / 3.6%

(more…)

(updates every 15 minutes)

8:15pm
Burlington
(12 of 260 polls reporting)
Savoline — 43.2% (163)
Lougheed — 43.2% (163)
Judson — 7.7% (29)

Markham
(15 of 295 polls reporting)
Chan — 45.9% (348)
Yuan– 39.7% (306)
Hagan — 8.8% (68)

York South-Weston
(5 of 216 polls reporting)
Albanese — 39.6% (38)
Ferreira — 33.3% (32)
Martino — 12.5% (12)

(more…)

Ontarians in three provincial ridings (Burlington, Markham, York South-Weston) head to the polls today to elect new MPPs to represent them for the next 8 months (the next general election, the first with a fixed date, will be held Oct 10, 2007 — changed from Oct 4 to accommodate a Jewish holiday).

By-elections are interesting in that the results don’t determine who forms the government. In that sense, many people feel less encumbered in their choices (which tells you that our electoral system doesn’t work well to translate true voter choices into representation). For that reason, you often see large swings — such as when the NDP took Parkdale-High Park from the Liberals. Each race is a 2-party race (Burlington and Markham between the Liberals and PC and York South-Weston between the Liberals and NDP). Here’s a look at the three ridings.

Burlington — likely PC hold
The PCs narrowly won this riding in 2003 by a 46.2% to 42.2% margin over the Liberals. The NDP were well back at 8.2% and the Greens had 2.3%. Since then, our best guess is that the Liberals have dropped about 6% provincially, all of which has gone to the NDP; the PCs and Greens have held steady. This riding is in the Peel-Halton region, which tends to go up less for the NDP here than across the province as a whole; so a 6% swing might be 4% here. So, not taking account the candidates, this riding should be, roughly: PC 46%, LIB 38%, NDP 12%, Green 2%, Others 2%. But by-elections are much more about candidates — so what impact will the candidates have? In this case, probably not a lot. If anything, the PCs could gain a couple points because of Joyce Savoline’s name recognition as former Halton regional chair. Green Party leader Frank de Jong will probably pull a couple points away from the NDP here. Guestimate ¹: PC 47-48%, LIB 35-36%, NDP 9-10%, Green 4-5%, Others 1-2%.

Markham – too close to call
The Liberals won this riding in 2003 by a 51.7% to 40.3% margin over the PCs. The NDP, running the same candidate (Janice Hagan) were well back at 5.1% and the Greens, running the same candidate (Bernadette Manning) had 1.6%. Markham, in the York-Durham region, swings similarly to Burlington, but the NDP gaining even less of their province-wide gains than in Burlington, probably about 3% (at the expense of the Liberals). So, without accounting for candidates, we might expect the result to be: LIB 49%, PC 40%, NDP 8%, Green 2%, Others 1%. What about the candidates? The race has been nasty at times. The PCs will probably gain because they are running a Chinese candidate this time (although the previous candidate was former MPP David Tsobouchi who is backing Yuan this time). In a riding that is one-third Chinese, that means something. Moreover, the wife of former MPP, Tony Wong, is backing Yuan. Collectively this probably bumps up Yuan a few points, at the expense of his opponent Michael Chan, who has countered that Yuan doesn’t actually live in Markham (he lives in Richmond Hill). This one is too close to call. Guestimate ¹: LIB 44-45%, PC 44-45%, NDP 7-8%, Green 2-3%, Others 2-3%.

York South-Weston — likely Liberal hold
A very different dynamic exists in this urban riding, it being one of the province’s poorest. The Liberals won this riding easily in 2003: 61.6% to 19.3% over the NDP; the PCs had 15.2% and the Greens had 2.4%. This is a riding which swings more heavily towards the NDP than the province as a whole, so a 6% swing is probably 10% here. So not accounting for candidates or issues, we might expect the result to be: LIB 50%, NDP 29%, PC 15%, Green 3%, Others 3%. The recent decision by the Liberals to give themselves a 25% raise, but raise the minimum wage by just 25 cents an hour has mobilized many NDP supporters here. The Blue-22 Pearson-Union Station rail link has also resurfaced as an issue, but with all candidates playing to the local community, no candidate has distinguished themselves on this issue; but the perception that the Liberals are pushing it through against the wishes of the community could hurt them and benefit the NDP. Given the other two by-elections are not competitive for the NDP, they will also use all their resources here. The Liberals are running local media personality Laura Albanese and the NDP is running well-known candidate Paul Ferreira, who has ran unsuccessfully for city council and for the NDP federally. As Portuguese-Canadian candidates, neither party appears to have an advantage mobilizing that community (although historically, the Liberals have done a better job in doing so). In some ways, the race is not dissimilar to the Parkdale-High Park by-election last fall, where the NDP overcame a 40-point plurality to win. But there, the Liberals previous results were inflated by a star candidate in Gerard Kennedy, a popular NDP candidate in Cheri DiNovo and an unpopular Liberal candidate in Sylvia Watson. And the Liberals got into hot water by smearing DiNovo. That Ferreira is openly gay doesn’t appear to be an issue for the heavily-Catholic Portuguese community, but it might temper gains here (he won a couple points less than our projection for him in the 2006 federal election). But overall, all signs point to a big gain for the NDP. But how much is the key question. We’re guessing it won’t be as great as in Parkdale-High Park, and will come up just short of capturing the seat. Guestimate ¹: LIB 43-44%, NDP 34-35%, PC 15-16%, Green 3-4%, Others 2-3%.

NOTE
¹ Gues-timates for by-elections do not reflect the same level of accuracy that we give for general elections. They are simply best guesses.

We’ve set up individual pages for the 3 Ontario Provincial By-Elections, to be held on 8 February 2007. Feel free to post your thoughts and observations on the races.

9:30pm
With 57% of the vote reported, DemocraticSPACE has seen enough. We are projecting that Glen Pearson will be elected in London North Centre.

9:31pm (155 of 253 polls reporting)
Pearson — 33.8% (6803)
May — 27.8% (5529)
Haskett — 22.6% (4552)
Walker — 15.5% (3121)

Update:
FINAL RESULTS:
GLEN PEARSON — 34.9% (13,287 votes) - X
ELIZABETH MAY — 25.9% (9,864 votes)
DIANNE HASKETT — 24.4% (9,309 votes)
MEGAN WALKER — 14.1% (5,388 votes)
STEVE HUNTER — 0.4% (145 votes)
ROBERT EDE — 0.2% (70 votes)
WILL ARLOW — 0.1% (53 votes)

Stay tuned for live results… here we go…

8:51pm (1 of 253 polls reporting)
Arlow — 0% (0)
Ede — 0% (0)
Haskett — 14% (4)
Hunter — 0% (0)
May — 29% (8)
Pearson — 11% (3)
Walker — 46% (13)

8:54pm (5 of 253 polls reporting)
Arlow — 0% (0)
Ede — 0% (0)
Haskett — 21% (78)
Hunter — 0% (1)
May — 33% (121)
Pearson — 27% (100)
Walker — 19% (69)

8:57pm (7 of 253 polls reporting)
Arlow — 0% (0)
Ede — 0% (0)
Haskett — 21% (110)
Hunter — 0% (2)
May — 32% (168)
Pearson — 29% (152)
Walker — 17% (87)

Extremely early — just 2.8% of the polls reporting, but Elizabeth May has jumped out in front.

9:00pm (10 of 253 polls reporting)
May — 29.2% (237)
Pearson — 28.5% (231)
Walker — 21.9% (178)
Haskett — 19.9% (161)

9:03pm (15 of 253 polls reporting)
Pearson — 29.9% (363)
May — 28.8% (349)
Walker — 21.3% (258)
Haskett — 19.5% (236)

Pearson takes the lead.

(more…)

Stay tuned to DemocraticSPACE for live coverage of tonights results from the London North Centre by-election. We expect results to begin to flow starting at 8:30pm Eastern.

WHERE TO VOTE
OUR LONDON NORTH CENTRE BY-ELECTION PAGE.
WHO WE THINK DESERVES YOUR VOTE
ANALYSIS OF HOW THE VOTES MIGHT BREAK

WE WILL BEGIN LIVE-BLOGGING AT 8:30pm EASTERN.

Now that we have your attention, we will confess, without any reliable data from within the riding, we simply cannot make a call in this race. By-elections are notoriously difficult to predict, since the normal trends in party support are typically trumped by the personalities and circumstances involved. But what we can do is outline a reasoning that might help understand the dynamic at play.

1) PARTY TRENDS
Our latest tracking of the polls (based on a weighted average of the last 5 polls) puts Ontario support levels as follows (change from 2006 election in parenthesis):

ONTARIO-WIDE CURRENTLY
Liberal — 38.4% (-1.5%)
Conservative — 36.0% (+0.9%)
NDP — 17.2% (-2.2%)
Green — 7.0% (+2.3%)
Other — 1.4% (+0.5%)

In our projection model, London North Centre performs on average for Southwestern Ontario for all four major parties (and Southwestern Ontario performs near the provincal average for all parties — exactly on the average for the NDP and Greens, and a slight advantage of 5% for the Conservatives and a slight 5% disadvantage for the Liberals. This reflects the likely change in support, not the overall support levels, which have typically favoured the Liberals.) So, applying these shifts to the 2006 election result would produce result of:

ADJUSTING FOR TRENDS
Liberal — 38.6%
Conservative — 30.8%
NDP — 21.6%
Green — 7.8%
Others — 1.2%

However, this assumes a general election, and most importantly, if Liberal Joe Fontana was running, which he is not. So, we need to look more closely at the party base, how much is up for grabs, and of course, the candidates themselves.

2) PARTY BASE vs. WHAT IS UP-FOR-GRABS.
Typically, a popular incumbent (or star candidate) can swing the vote by as much as 10% (remembering that, on average, only about 15% of voters cast their ballot by local candidate, versus 60-65% that vote by party). In a by-election, this is considerably higher, however, which is why they are difficult to project. Let’s assume the “base” for each party in London North Centre right now is roughly (as this is pure guesswork, informed by a look at the range of past results):

Liberal — 26%
Conservative — 20%
NDP — 14%
Green — 6%
Others — 1%

This suggests that about 33% are up-for-grabs.

3) HOW DOES UNDECIDED VOTE SPLIT?
Indications are that Elizabeth May is grabbing much of that undecided vote due to her strong campaigning — let’s estimate half. Glen Pearson probably gets a quarter of the undecided vote. And Dianne Haskett and Megan Walker probably split the remaining undecided vote. By this rationale — which is pure guesswork — we might expect the result to look something like this:

Glen Pearson — 33-35%
Dianne Haskett — 23-25%
Elizabeth May — 22-24%
Megan Walker — 17-19%
Others — approx. 1%

CONCLUSION
By the above logic, it would appear that the Liberals have the advantage, but it will be closely fought. This also suggests that the Greens could finish as high as second or as low as third, within a few points of the Conservatives either way. Most likely, the NDP will be fourth, using the above logic. Note all of this is pure guesswork on our part; without real data, there is no way to provide our usually reliable prediction. As always, the voters will decide…

Who deserves Londoners’ vote today in the federal by-election? It appears that it is a close 4-way race. Any of the Liberals, Conservative, NDP and yes, Green candidates can win. Let’s consider each in turn.

DIANNE HASKETT
Does Conservative Dianne Haskett deserve election? Avoiding the media for the first half of the campaign, and avoiding their questions the second half hardly seems to us to warrant endorsement. That she is a polarizing figure in London, on account of her seemingly far right views socially (she is closely tied to the Christian Right in the U.S.), should give Londoners pause. Haskett would add a number to the loyal Conservative ranks, but her campaigning demonstrates a commitment first to her Party’s leadership, and only secondly to being responsive to Londoners. Moreover, should Stephen Harper be rewarded for his opportunistic choice of dates — on the eve of the Liberal convention and on the heels of municipal elections? We think not.

MEGAN WALKER
Does NDPer Megan Walker deserve election? Earlier in the campaign, Walker’s people found nasty online comments made by one of Glen Pearson’s aides (whereby the aide disparaged women). Now, Walker is circulating anti-Green brochures that tell Londoners effectively that the Greens can’t win and a vote for them is wasted vote. The overall tone of Walker’s campaign has been negative. That she has the rather dubious honour of being the only NDP candidate whose Liberal opponent won the backing of the local union. So should Walker be rewarded for her negative campaign? We think not.

GLEN PEARSON
Does Liberal Glen Pearson deserve election? In a word, yes, he does. What’s not to like? He has been the executive director of the London Food Bank for the last 20 years, a captain in the London Fire Department, and has worked in Sudan campaigning for human rights, building schools and community development. The question before Londoners is whether to cast their ballots today for Pearson or, for example, in six months when Canadians will likely head back to the polls in a general election. If not for Elizabeth May, Londoners would have an easy choice. But…

ELIZABETH MAY
Does Green leader Elizabeth May deserve election? You bet. Londoners have an opportunity to single-handedly do more for Canadian democracy than any group of citizens has. By electing Elizabeth May, they open parliament and the national leaders’ debates to the Green Party. Some 660,000 Canadians voted Green in the last election, the highest number of votes in Canadian history for a party that did not gain a seat. A vote for May would give a strong voice in parliament not only for London (it’s not often that your MP is in the news everyday as an opposition leader), but also give a voice to the hundreds of thousands of disenfranchised Green voters. More importantly, May is simply a likeable, well-connected, outgoing person who will use her office to advance London’s concerns and who has support across the political spectrum.

CONCLUSION
So, Londoners have an interesting choice for this unusually short mandate. While Pearson appears to be the right choice for Londoners in the long-run, this by-election is not about the long-run, given the impending general election. A vote for May would inject new life into the Canadian political scene in the short term. So a vote for May in the by-election, and a vote for Pearson in the next general election in a few months would give Londoners the best of both worlds.