What do the 4 by-elections tell us? Generally, not much. The results are a mixed bag. The Conservatives, NDP and BQ can all point to positives (although not universally — while they improved in some places they went down in others), while there was no good news for the Greens and Liberals.

Pundits and media like to see by-elections as tests of party momentum, but this is largely fiction, since the deciding factor in how people vote is so much less about party (as is the case in general elections, when an average 80-85% of votes are party votes) and more about the local candidate, how many resources ($ and people) are put into it, and how effectively each party’s on-the-ground apparatus is mobilized. Moreover, the extremely low turnouts (from a low of 22% in Hochelaga to a “high” of 36% in Montmagny) are not a good indication of what happens when 60 to 70% of people turn out. We’ll have to wait to see how much money (and by association, people) each party put into each race, but I suspect we’ll see a wide range that roughly reflects the results. Below is a comparison of the % vote in the 2008 election (the first number) vs the 2009 by-election.

Montmagny—L’Islet—Kamouraska—Rivière-du-Loup
Conservative — 30.6 vs 42.7 (+12.1)
Bloc — 46.0 vs 37.7 (-8.3)
Liberal — 15.4 vs 13.2 (-2.2)
NDP — 5.4 vs 4.8 (-0.6)
Green — 2.2 vs 1.7 (-0.5)

Hochelaga
Bloc — 49.7 vs 51.2 (+1.5)
Conservative — 9.2 vs 10.1 (+0.9)
Liberal — 20.7 vs 14.3 (-6.4)
NDP — 14.4 vs 19.5 (+5.1)
Green — 4.3 vs 3.3 (-1.0)

Cumberland—Colchester—Musquodoboit Valley
Conservative — 8.8 vs 45.8 (+37.0)
NDP — 12.3 vs 25.7 (+13.4)
Liberal — 8.4 vs 21.3 (+12.9)
Green — n/a vs 3.3 (+3.3)
(note: independent Bill Casey won with 69.0 last time)

New Westminster—Coquitlam
NDP — 41.8 vs 49.6 (+7.8)
Conservative — 38.8 vs 35.8 (-3.0)
Liberal — 11.3 vs 10.3 (-1.0)
Green — 7.2 vs 4.3 (-2.9)

The Conservative did well in Montmagny, while the Bloc under-performed, but the other 3 parties were not far off their 2008 results. The NDP improved in Hochelaga, while the Liberals dropped. The comparison in Cumberland-Colchester is not especially meaningful given Casey’s overwhelming victory in 2008, but it tells us that Conservatives came home to roost while the Liberals and NDP improved by roughly the same amount. The NDP (who generally out-perform their general election results in by-elections) did well in New West, while the Conservatives and Greens under-performed. That the Liberals (who generally don’t do well in by-elections) under-performed their 2008 results in all 3 of the “normal” by-elections (excluding Cumberland) is not welcome news for Ignatieff, but probably the Hochelaga result is the only truly worrying one.

A new survey of the Guelph by-election by Oraclepoll of Sudbury shows Liberal Frank Valeriote with a wide lead. What’s perhaps more surprising is that his closest competitor is Green candidate Mike Nagy, with both the Conservatives and NDP well behind. The poll was reported by the Guelph Mercury, which cited its source as the Guelph Green Party, which suggests they commissioned the poll; the survey of 300 voters was taken 1-2 Sept, and has a margin of error of +/- 5.7%, 19 times out of 20.

Frank Valeriote, Liberal — 38.4%
Mike Nagy, Green — 24.2%
Gloria Kovach, Conservative — 12.6%
Tom King, NDP — 8.0%
Undecided — 16.7%

An even distribution of undecided voters would yield the following results:

Frank Valeriote, Liberal — 46.2%
Mike Nagy, Green — 29.1%
Gloria Kovach, Conservative — 15.1%
Tom King, NDP — 9.6%

One must always be cautious with party-sponsored polls, but the Green-commissioned Oraclepoll of Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound during the 2007 Ontario election did accurately predict a movement towards the Greens. Comparing the Oraclepoll with the final results showed a strong late decline of NDP and Liberal support. No doubt the Greens are hoping for a similar result with the NDP and Conservatives in Guelph.

Candidate	Oraclepoll (2-3 Oct)	Results (10 Oct)
Bill Murdoch, PC	37%	47%
Shane Jolley, Green	28%	33%
Selwyn Hicks, Liberal	21%	15%
Paul Johnstone, NDP	13%	4%

Oraclepoll is a more established pollster than KLR VU, who conducted the previous Guelph riding poll, but as with all polls, they are merely snap-shots in time. As always, it will be the voters who decide.

A poll of Guelph’s by-election was recently conducted by an up-start Winnipeg-based polling firm KLR VU run by Allan Bruinooge, brother of Conservative MP Rod Bruinooge.

KLR VU Poll (through 13 Aug)
Frank Valeriote, Liberal — 34.6 to 38.6%
Gloria Kovach, Conservative — 24.4 to 28.4%
Mike Nagy, Green — 17.2 to 21.2%
Tom King, NDP — 15.8 to 19.8%

The above ranges reflect the margin of error of the poll. KLR VU surveyed 3,396 people on two days, July 27 and August 13, which represents a margin of error of +/- 2%, 19 times out of 20 (note: typically a survey of 3,396 people yields a margin of error of +/- 1.7%, so we assume KLR VU is rounding this to 2%).

The poll has sparked controversy due to its methodology, its perceived Conservative connection and also because it’s only other public poll — on whether Dr. He.nry Morgentaler should receive the Order of Canada or not — showed very different results from the mainstream pollsters (Ipsos and Angus Reid). David Akin has the best run-down of the controversy.

On the question of methodology, we are less concerned about the use of touchtone polling in general — where questions are pre-recorded, voters are called randomly, and asked to press ‘1′ or ‘2′ etc in response to different questions. No doubt this type of survey has some selection bias in that some people will simply hang up because there is no live person on the other end. More importantly, since there is no screening, it does not ensure that the respondent is an actual eligible voter (although realistically there is no way to ensure this with traditional polling either — essentially we have to take the person’s word for it). The selection bias is probably not that significantly different than traditional polling (a live person asking the questions), where people can also refuse to participate. At issue is whether supporters of one party/candidate are more or less likely to not participate than others. It seems unlikely — that is, Conservative voters are probably just as likely to hang up as Liberal voters as NDP voters and so on. Likewise, are people who are not eligible voters more likely to participate using touchtone polling than traditional polling? Probably not. So, we’re not prepared to discount the use of touchtone polling in general.

Somewhat more concerning in this poll is the large time gap between the initial survey and the final survey — 17 days apart. Given that polls are snapshots in time, a 2+ week gap certainly raises eyebrows at to its reliability. Typically, polls are most reliable when they are conducted over a short, contiguous period of 2-3 days. However, it’s probably worth noting that another mainstream pollster, Environics, also often conducts polls over a large period. For example, it’s latest survey was conducted June 13 to July 5, a gap of 22 days (although it is probable the surveys were more evenly distributed than the KLR VU poll). Given that Environics is an established pollster, the time gap in the KLR VU poll may not be significantly out of line with the mainstream, although it is not good polling practice.

Many NDP supporters, in particular, have questioned the poll’s validity, no doubt because the results show its candidate running behind the Green Party candidate. The NDP views Tom King as a star candidate and believes it can win the riding. However, it should come as no surprise to see the Greens doing well in Guelph — Guelph Greens won more than twice the province-wide Green share in the last federal and provincial elections (indeed out-polled the NDP in the latter), and the Greens are putting serious money and bodies into the riding. Compare the KLR VU results with our analysis from 14 August:

DemocraticSPACE Estimate (through 14 Aug)
Frank Valeriote, Liberal — 28-32%
Gloria Kovach, Conservative — 26-30%
Tom King, NDP — 20-24%
Mike Nagy, Green — 18-22%

The KLR VU results are slightly lower than our estimate for the NDP (the high end of the KLR VU range of 19.8% is just below our low end of 20%) and higher than our estimate for the Liberals (the low end of the KLR VU of 34.6% is just above our high end of 32%), but are within our estimated ranges for the Conservatives and Greens. So the results are not wildly different from our estimated ranges.

The jury is of course still out on KLR VU, given that it just doesn’t have a track record for us to judge its reliability. However, the results as reported are not completely out of line with what we might expect to see, plus or minus a couple of points for each party.

It’s important to keep in mind that this is, however, just one poll (although with a large sample size). Only with a few polls from different firms can we be more confident in the polling numbers. So stay tuned…

Earlier, we took a look at what might happening in the Guelph and Westmount-Ville Marie by-elections, which should be the most interesting to watch. The third by-election on Sept 8 is in the suburban Montréal riding of Saint-Lambert.

Bottom Line
Based on our estimates, we believe Bloc Québécois candidate Josée Beaudin begins the campaign with an advantage and could currently receive 9,800 to 10,920 votes (35-39%), Conservative candidate Patrick Clune between 7,560 and 8,680 (27-31%), Liberal candidate Roxane Stanners between 4,760 and 5,880 (17-21%), NDP candidate Richard Marois between 2,240 and 3,360 votes (8-12%), and Green candidate Diane Joubert in the 1,120 to 2,240 vote range (4-8%). Here’s how we arrive at these estimates (and they are just that — estimates).

Past Results
First, let’s recap what transpired in the January 2006 general election:

Party	Candidate	Votes	% Riding	% Québec	Spending
BQ	Maka Kotto	20,949	45.3%	42.1%	$45,282
LIB	Jean-Jacques Hermans	10,777	23.3%	20.7%	$57,186
CON	Patrick Clune	9,097	19.7%	24.6%	$36,940
NDP	Ronaldo Garcia	3,404	7.4%	7.5%	$1,200
GRN	Sonia Ziadé	1,819	3.9%	4.0%	$0

As you can see, the Bloc and Liberals were slightly above average, the Conservatives slightly below average, and the NDP and Greens were average. However, since 2006, we have witnessed a strong growth in provincial ADQ support in the Montérégie region, which bodes well for the Conservatives. We therefore will estimate that the Conservatives will perform better than in 2006.

Current Trends
Now let’s see how party support has changed in Québec between January 2006 and now:

Party	Jan 2006	Aug 2008	Difference
Bloc Québécois	42.1%	37.4%	-4.7%
Conservative	24.6%	19.9%	-4.7%
Liberal	20.6%	23.3%	+2.7%
NDP	7.5%	11.0%	+3.5%
Green	4.0%	7.4%	+3.4%

Estimated Base Support
There are a couple ways we might estimate (and we do mean estimate!) how general trending might impact support in Saint-Lambert: 1) take the baseline support from Saint-Lambert in 2006 and make adjustments for the changes in support, and 2) take the current province-wide support and adjust for the strength of Saint-Lambert relative to a party’s province-wide strength. In both cases, we need to then pro-rate them to 100%. These are really back-of-the-napkin calculations.

Using baseline strength (adjusted):

Bloc Québécois — 45.3 – 4.7 = 40.6 — 39.1% (pro-rated)
Conservative — 19.7 + 3.7 = 23.4 — 22.5%
Liberal — 23.3 – 1.7 = 21.6 — 20.8%
NDP — 7.4 + 3.5 = 10.9 — 10.5%
Green — 3.9 + 3.4 = 7.3 — 7.0%

Using current support/relative strength:

Bloc Québécois — 37.1 x 100% = 37.1% — 37.2% (pro-rated)
Conservative — 19.9 x 120% = 23.9% — 24.0%
Liberal — 23.3 x 95% = 22.1% — 22.2%
NDP — 11.0 x 90% = 9.9% — 9.9%
Green — 7.4 x 90% = 6.7% — 6.7%

Averaging the two methods, gives us:

Bloc Québécois — 38.2%
Conservative — 23.3%
Liberal — 21.5%
NDP — 10.2%
Green — 6.9%

Adjusting for Candidates
But, we must further adjust this because the Bloc incumbent is not re-running. Based on our modeling, we estimate a reduction of the Bloc vote by roughly 4 points. And based on second-choice preferences, these votes will likely be split, roughly 2.4 to the Conservatives, 1 to the NDP, and 0.6 to the Liberals, giving us roughly:

Bloc Québécois / 38.2 – 4 — 34.2%
Conservative / 23.3 + 2.4 — 25.7%
Liberal / 21.5 + 0.6 — 22.1%
NDP / 10.2 + 1 — 11.2%
Green / 6.9 + 0 — 6.9%

Adjusting for Campaign Spending
But we still haven’t adjusted for the fact that more financial resources are being put into the riding by the Conservatives and Bloc as compared to 2006. Last time the Liberals spent 74% to the maximum, the Bloc spent 60%, the Conservatives 48% and the NDP and Greens spent nothing. Expect the Conservatives and Bloc to run fully-funded campaigns, the Liberals about the same as 2006 and the NDP and Greens to run minimal campaigns. So we might expect the Bloc and Conservatives to improve their vote, which will likely force the Liberal vote down. Using our modeling, we estimate that accounting for campaign resources, we might see the following:

Bloc Québécois — 34.2 + 2.4 = 36.6%
Conservative — 25.7 + 3.7 = 29.4%
Liberal — 22.0 – 3.6 = 18.6%
NDP — 11.2 -1.5 = 9.7%
Green — 6.9 – 1.2 = 5.7%

Factoring Margin of Error and Turnout
Now if we take into account the margin of error in our current rolling average of polls in Québec of about +/- 2% and an estimated 28,000 voters (30% turnout), we might expect the following results:

Josée Beaudin, Bloc Québécois — 9,800 to 10,920 votes (35-39%)
Patrick Clune, Conservative — 7,560 to 8,680 votes (27-31%)
Roxane Stanners, Liberal — 4,760 to 5,880 votes (17-21%)
Richard Marois, NDP — 2,240 to 3,360 votes (8-12%)
Diane Joubert, Green — 1,120 to 2,240 votes (4-8%)

The above is purely an estimate based on deductive logic. What this suggests is that Bloc Québécois remain the favourite, but facing a decent challenge from the Conservatives. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Earlier, we took a look at what might happening in the Guelph by-election, which should be the most interesting to watch. But almost as interesting is Westmount-Ville Marie, a traditional Liberal strong-hold where star candidate Marc Garneau is facing a strong challenge.

Bottom Line
Based on our estimates, we believe Liberal candidate Marc Garneau begins the campaign with an advantage and could currently receive 9,600 to 10,800 votes (32-36%), NDP candidate Anne Lagacé Dowson could receive 6,900 to 8,100 votes (23-27%), Green candidate Claude William Genest and Conservative candidate Guy Dufort both at 4,500 to 5,700 (15-19%) and Bloc Québécois candidate Charles Larivée in the 1,800 to 3,000 vote range (6-10%). Here’s how we arrive at these estimates (and they are just that — estimates).

Past Results
First, let’s recap what transpired in the January 2006 general election:

Party	Candidate	Votes	% Riding	% Québec	Spending
LIB	Lucienne Robillard	18,884	45.7%	20.7%	$70,313
CON	Louise O’Sullivan	7,295	17.6%	24.6%	$27,009
NDP	Eric Steedman	6,356	15.4%	7.5%	$13,082
BQ	Sophie Frechette	5,191	12.6%	42.1%	$9,770
GRN	Julie Sabourin	3,451	8.4%	4.0%	$122

As you can see, the Liberals more than doubled their province-wide share of the vote in the riding, as did the NDP and Greens. The Conservatives were about 30% below the province and the Bloc received less than a third of their province-wide average.

Current Trends
Now let’s see how party support has changed in Québec between January 2006 and now:

Party	Jan 2006	Aug 2008	Difference
Bloc Québécois	42.1%	37.4%	-4.7%
Conservative	24.6%	19.9%	-4.7%
Liberal	20.6%	23.3%	+2.7%
NDP	7.5%	11.0%	+3.5%
Green	4.0%	7.4%	+3.4%

Estimated Base Support
There are a couple ways we might estimate (and we do mean estimate!) how general trending might impact support in Westmount: 1) take the baseline support from Westmount in 2006 and make adjustments for the changes in support, and 2) take the current province-wide support and adjust for the strength of Westmount relative to a party’s province-wide strength. In both cases, we need to then pro-rate them to 100%. These are really back-of-the-napkin calculations.

Using baseline strength:

Liberal — 45.7 + 2.7 = 48.4% (pro-rated)
NDP — 15.4 + 3.5 = 18.9%
Conservative — 17.6 – 4.7 = 12.9%
Green — 8.4 + 3.4 = 11.8%
Bloc Québécois — 12.6 – 4.7 = 7.9%

Using current support/relative strength:

Liberal — 23.3 x 200% = 46.6% — 43.0% (pro-rated)
NDP — 11.0 x 200% = 22.0% — 20.3%
Green — 7.4 x 200% = 14.8% — 13.7%
Conservative — 19.9 x 70% = 13.9% — 12.8%
Bloc Québécois — 37.1 x 30% = 11.1% — 10.2%

Averaging the two methods, gives us:

Liberal — 45.7%
NDP — 19.6%
Conservative — 12.9%
Green — 12.8%
Bloc Québécois — 9.1%

Adjusting for Candidates
But, we must further adjust this because the Liberal incumbent is not re-running. True Marc Garneau is a star candidate, but so to is Anne Lagacé Dowson, although probably not as much. Based on our modeling, we estimate a reduction of the Liberal vote by roughly 6 points. And based on second-choice preferences, these votes will likely be split, roughly 2.5 to the NDP, 2 the Conservatives, and 1.5 to the Greens, giving us roughly:

Liberal / 45.7 – 6.0 — 39.7%
NDP / 19.6 + 2.5 — 22.1%
Conservative / 12.9 + 2.0 — 14.9%
Green / 12.8 + 1.5 — 14.3%
Bloc Québécois / 9.1 + 0 — 9.1%

Adjusting for Campaign Spending
But we still haven’t adjusted for the fact that more financial resources are being put into the riding by the Conservatives, NDP and Greens as compared to 2006. Last time the Liberals spent 90% to the maximum. The Conservatives spent only 35% of the maximum. The NDP spent about 17% and the Greens spent nothing at all. I expect the NDP and Conservatives to run a fully-funded campaign and the Greens perhaps a 50% campaign (I would imagine the Bloc will run a minimal campaign). So we might expect the NDP, Greens and Conservatives to all improve their vote against the Liberals. Using our modeling, we estimate that accounting for campaign resources, we might see the following:

Liberal — 39.7 – 5.8 = 33.9%
NDP — 22.1 + 2.5 = 24.6%
Green — 14.3 + 3.0 = 17.3%
Conservative — 14.9 + 1.7 = 16.6%
Bloc Québécois — 9.1 – 1.6 = 7.5%

Factoring Margin of Error and Turnout
Now if we take into account the margin of error in our current rolling average of polls in Québec of about +/- 2% and an estimated 30,000 voters (30% turnout), we might expect the following results:

Marc Garneau, Liberal — 9,600 to 10,800 votes (32-36%)
Anne Lagacé Dowson, NDP — 6,900 to 8,100 votes (23-27%)
Claude William Genest, Green — 4,500 to 5,700 votes (15-19%)
Guy Dufort, Conservative — 4,500 to 5,700 votes (15-19%)
Charles Larivée, Bloc Québécois — 1,800 to 3,000 votes (6-10%)

The above is purely an estimate based on deductive logic. What this suggests is that Liberals remain the favourite, but facing a strong challenge from the NDP. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.

Updated: 14 Aug 2008

The most interesting by-election to watch on September 8 will be in Guelph, where four parties (Liberal, Conservative, NDP and Greens) are all running fully-funded campaigns and each is competitive. But who will win? Unlike general elections when past polls have shown that 80-85% of voters cast their ballot according as party votes (and only 15-20% because of the local candidate), we know that by-elections behave differently. They are much more candidate-focused since the government is not on the line. They can also be disproportionately influenced by a current “hot button” issue or a local issue. So the best we can do, in the absence of internal polls being leaked to us (hint, hint), is to use deductive logic.

Bottom Line
Based on our estimates, we believe Liberal candidate Frank Valeriote begins the campaign with a slight edge and could currently receive 9,800 to 11,200 votes (28-32%), Conservative candidate Gloria Kovach could receive 9,100 to 10,500 votes (26-30%), NDP candidate Tom King 7,000 to 8,400 votes (20-24%) and Green candidate Mike Nagy could receive in the 6,300 to 7,700 vote range (18-22%). Here’s how we arrive at these estimates (and they are just that — estimates).

Past Results
First, let’s recap what transpired in the January 2006 general election:

Party	Candidate	Votes	% Riding	% Ontario	Spending
LIB	Brenda Chamberlain	23,662	38.4%	39.9%	$56,610
CON	Brent Barr	18,342	29.8%	35.1%	$82,313
NDP	Phil Allt	13,566	22.0%	19.4%	$30,298
GRN	Mike Nagy	5,372	8.7%	4.7%	$28,878

So, in both the 2006 federal and 2007 provincial elections, the Liberal candidate was roughly average relative to the province, the Conservative candidate ran noticeably weaker, the NDP candidate ran slightly above average. And the Green candidate ran considerably stronger, almost twice as strong as their average across the province.

Current Trends
Now let’s see how party support has changed in Ontario between January 2006 and now:

Party	Jan 2006	Aug 2008	Difference
Liberal	39.9%	39.2%	-0.7%
Conservative	35.1%	34.3%	-0.8%
NDP	19.4%	15.3%	-4.1%
Green	4.7%	10.4%	+5.7%

Estimated Base Support
There are a couple ways we might estimate (and we do mean estimate!) how general trending might impact support in Guelph.: 1) take the baseline support from Guelph in 2006 and make adjustments for the changes in support, and 2) take the current province-wide support and adjust for the strength of Guelph relative to a party’s province-wide strength. In both cases, we need to then pro-rate them to 100%. These are really back-of-the-napkin calculations.

Using baseline strength:

Liberal / 38.4 – 0.7 = 37.7 — 38.1% (pro-rated)
Conservative / 29.8 – 0.8 = 29.0 — 29.3%
NDP / 22.0 – 4.1 = 17.9 — 18.1%
Green / 8.7 + 5.7 = 14.4 — 14.5%

Using current support/relative strength:

Liberal / 39.2 x 95% = 37.6 — 36.6% (pro-rated)
Conservative / 34.3 x 85% = 29.2 — 28.4%
NDP / 15.3 x 110% = 16.8 — 16.3%
Green / 10.4 x 185% = 19.2 — 18.7%

Averaging the two methods, gives us:

Liberal — 37.4% (pro-rated average)
Conservative — 28.8%
NDP — 17.2%
Green — 16.6%

Adjusting for No Incumbent
But, we must further adjust this because the Liberal incumbent is not re-running. Based on our modeling, we estimate this could reduce the Liberal vote by roughly 4 points. And based on second-choice preferences, these votes will likely be split between the other 3 parties, roughly 2 to the Conservatives, 1.2 to the NDP and 0.8 to the Greens, giving us roughly:

Liberal / 37.4 – 4.0 — 33.4%
Conservative / 28.8 + 2.0 — 30.8%
NDP / 17.2 + 1.2 — 18.4%
Green / 16.6 + 0.8 — 17.4%

Adjusting for Campaign Spending
But we still haven’t adjusted for the fact that all four are running fully-funded campaigns. Last time the Conservatives ran a fully-funded campaign. The Liberals spent only 70% of the maximum. The NDP spent about 36% and the Greens about 35%. Clearly, with fully-funded campaigns, we might expect the NDP and Greens to improve their vote. It’s likely the Liberals, given significantly more spending by the NDP and Greens, will likely hold steady despite slightly more spending. And given they already spent to the max in 2006, it’s likely the Conservatives will suffer with increases NDP and Green spending. Using our modeling, we estimate that accounting for all fully-funded campaigns, we might see the following:

Liberal — 33.4 – 3.0 = 30.4%
Conservative — 30.8 – 2.7 = 28.1%
NDP — 18.4 + 2.7 = 21.1%
Green — 17.4 + 3.0 = 20.4%

Factoring Margin of Error and Turnout
Now if we take into account the margin of error in our current rolling average of polls in Ontario of about +/- 2% and an estimated 35,000 voters (30% turnout), we might expect the following results:

Frank Valeriote, Liberal — 9,800 to 11,200 votes (28-32%)
Gloria Kovach, Conservative — 9,100 to 10,500 votes (26-30%)
Tom King, NDP — 7,000 to 8,400 votes (20-24%)
Mike Nagy, Green — 6,300 to 7,700 votes (18-22%)

The above is purely an estimate based on deductive logic. Clearly what this suggests is that all four parties are competitive. One thing is clear, it should be fun to watch.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper has called 3 by-elections to fill vacancies in the ridings of Westmount-Ville Marie, Saint-Lambert and Guelph.

Westmount-Ville Marie is a central urban Montréal riding, part of the West Montréal region. It is highly anglophone and highly affluent, and as such, is it very atypical for Québec. It is probably a safe Liberal seat, especially with star candidate Marc Garneau as their candidate. However, it should be an interesting race for second place, with the NDP, Conservatives and even the Greens making a strong push. The NDP is running Anne Lagacé Dowson, the Conservatives are running Guy Dufort, and the Bloc is running Charles Larivée. Deputy Party leader and media personality Claude William Genest is running for the Greens.

Saint-Lambert is a suburban Montréal riding (South Shore), part of the broader Montérégie region, and should be interesting to watch. It has been a strong Bloc seat of late, but had previously been a Liberal riding. Moreover, the strong showing of the conservative-leaning ADQ in the 2007 provincial election in the Montérégie region southeast of Montréal could be a harbinger of a strong Conservative showing in the riding. Candidates are Josée Beaudin (Bloc Québécois), Patrick Clune (Conservative), Roxanne Stanners (Liberal), Richard Marois (NDP) and TBA (Green).

But, by far, the most interesting race will be in Guelph, where the Liberals, Conservatives, NDP and Greens will run fully-funded campaigns, setting up the possibility of a low plurality win, as votes are split 4 ways. Guelph is a single, mid-sized-city riding that has a mixed urban, suburban, and rural character. It is a college town, home to the University of Guelph and its agriculture/natural science focus. It is typically a swing riding that leans Liberal federally and Progressive Conservative provincially (it also went NDP in the surprise provincial election of the NDP in 1990). The Greens are also making a big push here, as the Green candidate won almost 20% of the vote in the 2007 provincial election. Candidates are Frank Valeriote (Liberal), Gloria Kovach (Conservative), Tom King (NDP), and Mike Nagy (Green).

9:58PM
DemocraticSPACE has seen enough. With just over 10% of the vote reporting, we believe that the NDP’s Thomas Mulcair will win Outremont. The race may tighten up, but the trend is clear.

9:58PM – POLLS REPORTING: 60/168
NDP / MULCAIR / 3335 / 48.4%
LIB / COULON / 2000 / 29.0%
BQ / GILSON / 636 / 9.2%
CPC / DUGUAY / 606 / 8.8%
GRN / PILON / 175 / 2.5%

Stay tuned…

Stay tuned for live elections results from Outremont.

Note: because the result change quickly, I will list only the top 5 (with my apologies to the remaining 7 candidates) – I hope to do a full update periodically.

9:09PM – POLLS REPORTING: 1/168
LIB / COULON / 13 / 52.0%
NDP / MULCAIR / 8 / 32.0%
GRN / PILON / 3 / 12.0%
BQ / GILSON / 1 / 4.0%
CPC / DUGUAY / 0 / 0.0%

9:12PM – POLLS REPORTING: 2/168
LIB / COULON / 39 / 53.4%
NDP / MULCAIR / 15 / 20.5%
BQ / GILSON / 6 / 8.2%
GRN / PILON / 5 / 6.8%
CPC / DUGUAY / 3 / 4.1%

9:13PM – POLLS REPORTING: 3/168
LIB / COULON / 65 / 42.8%
NDP / MULCAIR / 56 / 36.8%
BQ / GILSON / 12 / 7.9%
CPC / DUGUAY / 9 / 5.9%
GRN / PILON / 5 / 3.3%

9:15PM – POLLS REPORTING: 4/168
NDP / MULCAIR / 95 / 43.2%
LIB / COULON / 76 / 34.5%
CPC / DUGUAY / 21 / 9.5%
BQ / GILSON / 16 / 7.3%
GRN / PILON / 5 / 2.3%

9:18PM – POLLS REPORTING: 5/168
NDP / MULCAIR / 191 / 49.2%
LIB / COULON / 116 / 29.9%
BQ / GILSON / 31 / 8.0%
CPC / DUGUAY / 22 / 5.7%
GRN / PILON / 14 / 3.6%

(more…)

(updates every 15 minutes)

8:15pm
Burlington
(12 of 260 polls reporting)
Savoline — 43.2% (163)
Lougheed — 43.2% (163)
Judson — 7.7% (29)

Markham
(15 of 295 polls reporting)
Chan — 45.9% (348)
Yuan– 39.7% (306)
Hagan — 8.8% (68)

York South-Weston
(5 of 216 polls reporting)
Albanese — 39.6% (38)
Ferreira — 33.3% (32)
Martino — 12.5% (12)

(more…)