In the meantime, feel free to check out our FINAL SEAT PROJECTIONS — which what everyone really wants to know anyway!

http://democraticSPACE.com/canada2008 (offline)

We have a large number of bloggers writing from across the country and across the political spectrum. These articles can be sorted by date, by party, by topic, by region, or by author. We have individual riding pages, where you can comment on each race (and we may also add a separate discussion forum). And of course we have the riding-by-riding projections. Keep in mind we are still adding content to the riding pages (past election results, candidates, news feeds, etc) and still posting the projected winners, but it’s mostly there. Note also we have not added candidate ads — the ads shown are for the Ontario 2007 election to illustrate how it works. The goal is to have the site more or less complete by the start of the news cycle Monday morning.

I’ll be posting over there until mid-October.

According to the latest DemocraticSPACE projections, the Conservatives are on the verge of a majority government (which requires 155 seats). Current projections put the Conservatives at 146 seats on 37.7% support, the Liberals at 92 seats on 26.9% support, the NDP at 30 seats on 17.5% support, the Bloc at 38 seats on 8.6% support (32.5% in Québec), and the Greens with no seats and 8.3% support. These projections are based on regional polling data for all major Canadian pollsters between 2 Sep and 10 Sep. Regional breakdowns are below.

CONSERVATIVE	LIBERAL	NDP	BLOC	GREEN	OTHERS
37.7%	26.9%	17.5%	8.6%	8.3%	1.0%
146	92	30	38	0	2

Ontario
The Conservatives are currently projecting at 52 seats on 39.6% support, the Liberals 42 seats on 33.9%, the NDP 12 seats on 16.6% and the Greens no seats on 9.0%.

Québec
The Bloc Québécois is currently projecting at 38 seats on 32.5% support, the Conservatives at 17 seats on 27.2% support, the Liberals 18 seats on 20.1%, the NDP 1 seat on 13.1%, and the Greens no seats on 6.2%.

British Columbia
The Conservatives are currently projecting at 21 seats on 37.5% support, the NDP 9 seats on 27.0%, the Liberals 6 seats on 22.3% and the Greens no seats on 11.9%.

Alberta
The Conservatives are currently projected to win all 28 seats on 62.9% support, the Liberals at 17.2%, and the NDP at 9.9% and Greens at 8.5%.

Prairies
The Conservatives are currently projected to win 20 seats on 43.5% support, the NDP 4 seats on 28.1%, the Liberals 4 seats on 20.5% and the Greens no seats on 6.2%.

Atlantic Canada
The Liberals are currently projected to win 20 seats on 38.0% support, the Conservatives 8 seats on 31.4%, the NDP 3 seats on 24.0% and the Greens no seats on 6.0%.

The Honourable Jack Layton
Leader, New Democratic Party
300 – 279 Laurier West
Ottawa, Ontario K1P 5J9

Dear Jack,

I run DemocraticSPACE, a non-partisan election website that some 300,000 unique Canadians visited during the 2006 election campaign. As you might imagine from the website’s name, I place democratic principle above partisan politics.

So it is with great disappointment that I write to you today to express my solemnest condemnation of your actions in denying the Green Party a place at the debate table. As it stands, the Liberals, Bloc Québécois, and Greens stand ready to debate. Only you and Stephen Harper are refusing to debate if Elizabeth May speaks. In join forces with the Conservatives to deny the Greens a voice, you have betrayed your principles and the principles of the New Democratic Party.

In doing so, you have lost my vote. In 2006, I proudly cast my vote for the NDP on principle. The NDP once stood up and demanded that minority voices be heard in parliament. But I see now that this principle has given way to the search for a few more votes, afraid of what giving the Greens a voice might do to your bottom line. So as it stands today, in 2008, I will cast my ballot for the Green Party — a direct response to your decision to put petty politics ahead of principle. I am not alone.

I will not waste your time outlining the reasons why the Greens deserve a seat at the table, but suffice to say — like it or not — the Greens are now a major player in Canadian politics. And as such, they deserve a seat at the table. Far from shying away, you should be eager to outline your differences. By refusing to debate, you look weak. Worse, you align yourself with a leader (Harper) who has shown outright contempt for democratic values.

It is my greatest hope that you will have the courage to reverse course, to listen to the thousands of Canadians of all political stripes who are outraged by the decision to deny the Greens a voice, and, in particular, the part you played in this injustice. With your participation, Stephen Harper will be isolated; if he refuses to debate when all other leaders will, it will to his detriment and to your benefit. It takes a strong leader to admit when he was wrong; given your campaign is built around “a new strong”, you would do well to demonstrate that strength.

Sincerely,
Gregory D. Morrow
DemocraticSPACE

Update: my fellow non-partisan James Bow finds himself in the same position.

Update: it seems that the heat Jack Layton has been taking is having some impact. Layton is backing down, but only because the “debate about the debates” is “becoming a distraction” (i.e. taking him off-message), not because he thinks he was wrong. Leadership is admitting when you were wrong.

Canada’s broadcasters will not allow the Green Leader Elizabeth May to participate in the leaders’ debates during the federal election campaign, the networks announced Monday afternoon.

The consortium of networks, which includes the CBC, said three of Canada’s parties were opposed the May’s inclusion.

“It became clear that if the Green Party were included, there would be no leaders’ debate,” the consortium said in a press release.

“In the interest of Canadians, the consortium has determined that it is better to broadcast the debates with the four major party leaders, rather than not at all.”

The parties that will take part in the debates are the New Democrats, the Liberals, the Bloc Québécois and the Conservatives.

The debates will take place Oct. 1 and Oct. 2.

Given that 80% of Canadians said the Greens should be allowed to debate, this has to be seen as a failure of Canadian democracy. How is it possible for other parties to decide whether or not their competition is allowed in the debates? We’re stunned.

Update: Reaction to the Greens exclusion is has been overwhelmingly against the decision (for all but the most partisan):

Andrew Coyne — “Democracy Takes a Beating”
Dr. Dawg — “Green exclusion: an anti-democratic travesty”
Stageleft — “Elizabeth May Scares 3 Out Of 4 Political Leaders”
Saskboy — “Party Leaders are Sooky Babies – Media Cartel”
BlastFurnace — “Voters believe in democracy; the networks don’t”
Challenging the Commonplace — “Exclusion of May sends Votes to Greens”
DivaRachel — “Old Boys Club keeps Liz May out of debates”
Sean in Saskatchewan — “May Cut Out of Leader’s Debate…Shame!”
Law in Cool — “Green Party Barred from Election Debates”
The Vanity Press — “Greens Excluded”
Dymaxion World — “Unacceptable”
Cyberwuff — “Green Party excluded from televised debates… again”
ThreeSeven — “May: She joins the debates or I don’t pay for this election”
Russell Ormond — “Tories, Bloc, NDP opposed May’s inclusion in debates”
John Laforest — “Elizabeth May Belongs in the Leaders Debate”
D’Arcy Norman — “on democratic leader’s debates”
The Breadbin — “NO, you May not???”
Ray Arygyle — “Election Debate Outrage”
Far and Wide — “Screwed”
Jennifer O’Meara — “No girls allowed at the debates?”
John Waugh — “Opportunism trumps principle”
Canadian Journalism Project — “Greens and the election debate”
Pogge — “If True, This is Disgraceful”
The Angry Cupcake — “Greens Can’t Participate in Leaders’ Debates”

Update: Andrew Coyne reports that the Bloc Québécois has broken ranks — they are denying that they told the media consortium that they would not attend the debates if the Greens were included. As Coyne notes, you would have a debate that included Dion, Duceppe, and May already. If Jack Layton relented, the only guy standing in the way of the Greens inclusion is Stephen Harper. It’s highly unlikely he would skip the debate if all the other leaders were participating. So it comes down to Jack Layton. What do you say Jack, are you willing to stand on principal and let the Greens speak?

Update: even many of the newspaper editorials are also critical of this decision, which is notable given the extent to which the media is consolidated in Canada (such that many newspapers are owned by the very people who denied the Greens participation – note how canada.com is curiously silent on the issue, which means a plethora of newspapers apparently have no opinon).

Toronto Star — “TV debate hypocrisy”
Globe and Mail — “A club without Greens”

Update: It also appears that NDP leader Jack Layton is taking a lot of heat from his own supporters for his crass political move not block the Greens participation in the debates.

Ottawa Citizen — “NDP Facebook supporters blast Layton over debates”

Update — the Winnipeg Free Press seems to understand the message in a cartoon from today:

CONSERVATIVE	LIBERAL	NDP	BLOC	GREEN	OTHERS
37.2%	28.1%	17.4%	8.0%	8.3%	1.0%
143	94	29	41	0	2

Ontario
The Conservatives are currently projecting at 49 seats on 37.7% support, the Liberals 46 seats on 35.7%, the NDP 11 seats on 15.6% and the Greens no seats on 10.1%.

Québec
The Bloc Québécois is currently projecting at 41 seats on 32.3% support, the Conservatives at 14 seats on 26.0% support, the Liberals 18 seats on 21.6%, the NDP 1 seat on 13.2%, and the Greens no seats on 6.0%.

British Columbia
The Conservatives are currently projecting at 22 seats on 39.9% support, the NDP 8 seats on 25.6%, the Liberals 5 seats on 21.7% and the Greens no seats on 11.5%.

Alberta
The Conservatives are currently projected to win all 28 seats on 61.1% support, the Liberals at 17.6%, and the NDP and Greens at 9.9%.

Prairies
The Conservatives are currently projected to win 20 seats on 43.7% support, the NDP 4 seats on 27.2%, the Liberals 4 seats on 21.6% and the Greens no seats on 5.7%.

Atlantic Canada
The Liberals are currently projected to win 19 seats on 36.0% support, the Conservatives 9 seats on 31.1%, the NDP 3 seats on 26.4% and the Greens no seats on 5.9%.

On the one hand, Canadians will hear that we face “uncertain times”, that it is “too risky” to do things any different than we’ve always done (quite literally the slogan on the Conservative website says: “Canadians cannot afford risky experiments at a time of uncertainty”). It is the ultimate Conservative message: vote for the status quo over change (oh, and, by the way, since our leader is a hard-ass, he’s also a stronger leader than the erudite professor). In fact, this was precisely John McCain’s script against Barack Obama until he, too, decided to jump on the “change” bandwagon. On the other hand, Canadians will hear that it’s time for baby boomers to take care of the mess their generation created, to put the environment first, so that their children and grandchildren can live in a better world. The difference isn’t between risk and no risk, but rather short-term risk and long-term risk; risk is unavoidable, as it always is when the future cannot be known with certainty.

But, Canadians being Canadians — that is, moderate, reasonable, generally-risk-averse folks — voters will want their cake and eat it, too. Both messages (economy and environment) will probably have a least some resonance with the average voter. The party that makes the most compelling case for balancing both the economy and the environment will be the party that forms the next government. The Conservatives have the upper hand, because in an age where even the most polluting oil companies pitch themselves as “green” (a practice known as “greenwashing”), it is easy to sound green, even if you have no intention of actually following through. So, expect the Conservatives to greenwash just enough to make it look like they care. And, as the perceived tax-cutters, most people generally think the Conservatives are best placed to keep the economy afloat (even if it is naive to think the federal government really has that much influence). Moreover, the “change” position is split 3, if not 4, ways to Sunday (Liberal, NDP, Green, Bloc). The only progressive party who can realistically form the government — the Liberals (sorry, NDPers) — have no choice but to argue for consolidation of the progressive vote.

This is likely how the campaign plays out. But there is a missing narrative here. The Conservatives have erred in framing environmental responsibility in direct opposition to economic progress. Stephen Harper assumes that “going green” will automatically be harmful to our economy. And how is the average voter to know any different? S/he can’t. Unless, of course, the progressive parties convince voters that the exact opposite is true — that inaction on the environment will seriously harm our economy in a world where even the most egregious companies recognize its bad business not to get on board the green train.

It’s not that it isn’t true — indeed, the evidence from countries that have taken action on the environment is very positive, from flourishing economies to job creation — but it is not an easy sell. It’s going to take more than obtuse statements about “green-collar jobs”, which don’t mean much to the folks who’ve just lost their well-paying factory job and now struggling to pay the bills earning minimum wage.

Most importantly, it means being honest with voters, to treat them with respect by telling them not what they want to hear (such as “we will ensure you will always have cheap gas”) but rather telling voters what they need to hear (that they need to make better choices if they want their children to enjoy the quality of life they enjoy). Government will do its part doing what each of us cannot do on our own, but it is incumbent upon each and every voter to take it upon themselves to go green — and if the experiences elsewhere are any indication, chances are, they’ll even save a little green a long the way.