Comments for democraticSPACE.com/blog http://democraticSPACE.com/blog DemocraticSPACE is one of North America's leading non-partisan political websites. Sun, 27 Jul 2008 09:17:12 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1.2 Comment on Conservatives Still Lead; Minority Government Likely by Michael http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/conservatives-still-lead-minority-government-likely/#comment-930438 Michael Fri, 25 Jul 2008 22:13:25 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/conservatives-still-lead-minority-government-likely/#comment-930438 You think 32.1 % of the population is strong support ? What is more striking is that in spite of their efforts to seem more middle of the road than they actually are, and their tight control of agenda and news releases, and weak opposition with a perceived weak leader, 68 % of Canadians don't want them and most people are not willing to trust them with a majority. If the liberals can panic people in Ont and BC into strategic voting for them instead of NDP, and some of the green vote migrates to liberals, the Tories might even be out of minority territory. I can't see much changing until an actual campaign starts - then someone might blunder and upset this balance we have had for over 4 years. You think 32.1 % of the population is strong support ?
What is more striking is that in spite of their efforts to seem more middle of the road than they actually are, and their tight control of agenda and news releases, and weak opposition with a perceived weak leader, 68 % of Canadians don’t want them and most people are not willing to trust them with a majority.

If the liberals can panic people in Ont and BC into strategic voting for them instead of NDP, and some of the green vote migrates to liberals, the Tories might even be out of minority territory.

I can’t see much changing until an actual campaign starts - then someone might blunder and upset this balance we have had for over 4 years.

]]> Comment on Obama Leads McCain by Stefan http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/obama-leads-mccain/#comment-925346 Stefan Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:16:07 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/obama-leads-mccain/#comment-925346 I don't understand how a candidate can win the popular vote but not be president. It seems like a broke system to me. I don’t understand how a candidate can win the popular vote but not be president. It seems like a broke system to me.

]]> Comment on Conservatives Still Lead; Minority Government Likely by Stefan http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/conservatives-still-lead-minority-government-likely/#comment-925342 Stefan Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:13:02 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/conservatives-still-lead-minority-government-likely/#comment-925342 People may complain about the Conservatives but it looks like they still have strong support. People may complain about the Conservatives but it looks like they still have strong support.

]]> Comment on Ajax-Pickering by Stefan http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/ontario2007/ajax-pickering/#comment-925340 Stefan Wed, 23 Jul 2008 16:09:58 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/ontario2007/ajax-pickering/#comment-925340 Who will be best for the city Who will be best for the city

]]> Comment on Ontario Election Recap: Very Few Surprises by Raymond Lorenz http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2007/10/ontario-election-recap-very-few-surprises/#comment-915741 Raymond Lorenz Fri, 18 Jul 2008 02:16:01 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2007/10/ontario-election-recap-very-few-surprises/#comment-915741 Post-Referendum Report by Elections Ontario: http://www.elections.on.ca/NR/rdonlyres/75578EAB-10F0-45B5-949D-4C413D2F2712/0/Referendum2007_E.pdf The most significant (unanswered) voter questions seemed to be related to: 1. the cost of MMP, and 2. the nature of the list members. (pgs. VI, 21 & 24) In the BC-STV referendum, the issues were different because the government directed that the electoral design kept the number of MLA's unchanged. All representation was kept regional. Post-Referendum Report by Elections Ontario: http://www.elections.on.ca/NR/rdonlyres/75578EAB-10F0-45B5-949D-4C413D2F2712/0/Referendum2007_E.pdf

The most significant (unanswered) voter questions seemed to be related to: 1. the cost of MMP, and 2. the nature of the list members. (pgs. VI, 21 & 24)

In the BC-STV referendum, the issues were different because the government directed that the electoral design kept the number of MLA’s unchanged. All representation was kept regional.

]]> Comment on Obama Leads McCain by susan http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/obama-leads-mccain/#comment-909066 susan Mon, 14 Jul 2008 18:28:20 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/obama-leads-mccain/#comment-909066 The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn't have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states. The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote -- that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided "battleground" states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election. Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide. The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect. See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com The real issue is not how well Obama or McCain might do in the closely divided battleground states, but that we shouldn’t have battleground states and spectator states in the first place. Every vote in every state should be politically relevant in a presidential election. And, every vote should be equal. We should have a national popular vote for President in which the White House goes to the candidate who gets the most popular votes in all 50 states.

The National Popular Vote bill would guarantee the Presidency to the candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC). The bill would take effect only when enacted, in identical form, by states possessing a majority of the electoral vote — that is, enough electoral votes to elect a President (270 of 538). When the bill comes into effect, all the electoral votes from those states would be awarded to the presidential candidate who receives the most popular votes in all 50 states (and DC).

Because of state-by-state enacted rules for winner-take-all awarding of their electoral votes, recent candidates with limited funds have concentrated their attention on a handful of closely divided “battleground” states. Two-thirds of the visits and money were focused in just six states; 88% on 9 states, and 99% of the money went to just 16 states. Two-thirds of the states and people have been merely spectators to the presidential election.

Another shortcoming of the current system is that a candidate can win the Presidency without winning the most popular votes nationwide.

The National Popular Vote bill has been approved by 20 legislative chambers (one house in Colorado, Arkansas, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina, and Washington, and two houses in Maryland, Illinois, Hawaii, California, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Vermont). It has been enacted into law in Hawaii, Illinois, New Jersey, and Maryland. These states have 50 (19%) of the 270 electoral votes needed to bring this legislation into effect.

See http://www.NationalPopularVote.com

]]> Comment on Obama Leads McCain by democraticspace http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/obama-leads-mccain/#comment-906941 democraticspace Sun, 13 Jul 2008 16:57:45 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/obama-leads-mccain/#comment-906941 There are no adjustments for the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Wilder or Bradley effect</a>, since the phenomenon is inconclusive. There are no adjustments for the Wilder or Bradley effect, since the phenomenon is inconclusive.

]]> Comment on Obama Leads McCain by bigcitylib http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/obama-leads-mccain/#comment-906211 bigcitylib Sat, 12 Jul 2008 22:30:22 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/07/obama-leads-mccain/#comment-906211 Are you adjusting for the Wilder Effect? Are you adjusting for the Wilder Effect?

]]> Comment on Canadian Football Act is Asinine by Ron Raymond http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/06/canadian-football-act-is-asinine/#comment-900542 Ron Raymond Wed, 09 Jul 2008 02:35:35 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/06/canadian-football-act-is-asinine/#comment-900542 The 8 other CFL teams, 9 when Ottawa comes back will be fine, the Argos could be playing second fiddle in hogtown when the Bills take over. That's my only concern. Ron The 8 other CFL teams, 9 when Ottawa comes back will be fine, the Argos could be playing second fiddle in hogtown when the Bills take over. That’s my only concern.

Ron

]]> Comment on Democratic Nomination Delegate Math by Phillip Huggan http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/06/democratic-nomination-delegate-math/#comment-896725 Phillip Huggan Mon, 07 Jul 2008 00:11:26 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/2008/06/democratic-nomination-delegate-math/#comment-896725 Apart from learning about the US political system, one thing I learned from the Democratic Primaries was how momentum works. In March, right around Edwards's endorsement, no Fl and Mi reprimaries, and Hillary's failure to score big wins in Texas and Ohio, a lot of supers bled to Obama. After that it was lights out. Whatever triggered that mental switchover, I think has applications in other elections, finance, geopolitical treaties and trade sanctions, stuff like that. I'd be surprised not to see a few research papers that examine this example of reflexivity. Apart from learning about the US political system, one thing I learned from the Democratic Primaries was how momentum works. In March, right around Edwards’s endorsement, no Fl and Mi reprimaries, and Hillary’s failure to score big wins in Texas and Ohio, a lot of supers bled to Obama. After that it was lights out. Whatever triggered that mental switchover, I think has applications in other elections, finance, geopolitical treaties and trade sanctions, stuff like that. I’d be surprised not to see a few research papers that examine this example of reflexivity.

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