9:50am
I was hit with a flu bug last night (probably because it’s been so damp and rainy here, which I’m not used to in L.A.), so I apologize for not blogging the results as they came in; I went to bed instead. Still feeling crappy, but I’ll try to keep you up to date.

Well, Ignatieff did poorly on the first ballot. It’s not really surprising, actually. I thought he came off as sightly snobby in his speech — waving to his supporters and displaying his ever-so-slight condescending banter. I was shocked that literally two-thirds of the convention hall did not clap, illustrating his polarizing effect. I thought Gerard Kennedy gave a solid speech — if short on details and long on emotion. His supporters did well to line the middle of the hall, which gave the impression from everywhere that he had huge support. Stephane Dion’s speech was OK, although I found it far too geared towards Harper-bashing. Dryden gave a passionate speech — he obviously deserves a better fate. I think he is a throw-back politician and would have done well in the pre-sound bit era. Volpe’s speech was pretty bad — it was just a tribute to himself. Brison was solid, laying out a specific plan for the environment, which makes his backing of Rae slightly odd; given he lost confidence in Ignatieff, I would have thought he would go to Dion. Martha Hall Findlay was also OK, and her going to Dion is not a surprise.

Just to recap, here are the first ballot results:

IGNATIEFF — 1412 (29.3%)
RAE –977 (20.3%)
DION — 856 (17.8%)
KENNEDY — 854 (17.7%)
DRYDEN — 238 (4.9%)
BRISON — 192 (4.0%)
VOLPE — 156 (3.2%)
HALL-FINDLAY — 130 (2.7%)

I think this makes it difficult if not downright impossible for Ignatieff to win. Brison has gone to Rae, although some of his supporters will probably go to Ignatieff. Volpe has gone to Rae - no surprise there. Hall-Findlay has gone to Dion — no surprise there. That leaves Dryden, who has said he will stick around through the second ballot. I think Kennedy is probably out of the running, because Ignatieff, Rae and Dion will go up in the second ballot. Kennedy probably won’t. Then why would Dryden back Kennedy at that point? He won’t. So, at this point, it look like either Rae or Dion will win.