Comments on: First Ballot Recap http://democraticSPACE.com/blog DemocraticSPACE is one of North America's leading non-partisan political websites. Tue, 19 Aug 2008 21:41:29 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.1.2 By: John Olson http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25703 John Olson Sat, 02 Dec 2006 15:42:46 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25703 This captures what I saw very well. I thought the Ignatieff speach quite mechanical with the forced call and response. Rae's was pure theatre. Just me and my microphone. Charming really. Dryden was worries his last sentence about Canada did not come across but it did loud and clear. A great rallying cry for the liberals!! This captures what I saw very well. I thought the Ignatieff speach quite mechanical with the forced call and response. Rae’s was pure theatre. Just me and my microphone. Charming really. Dryden was worries his last sentence about Canada did not come across but it did loud and clear. A great rallying cry for the liberals!!

]]> By: Paul http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25704 Paul Sat, 02 Dec 2006 16:11:05 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25704 Greg, as always, great analysis. If we take the latest Ekos poll of Liberal delegates' second choice and assume that 50% will go with who their first choice supports and the remaining 50% will go with their predetermined second-choice (which can also be who their first choice supported), I get the following numbers for the second ballot: Iggy: 30% Rae: 26% Dion: 21% Kennedy: 18% Dryden: 5% Does anybody know how credible rumours of a Kennedy-Dion pact are? Because if their true, then it looks like Dion's the man to beat. Greg, as always, great analysis. If we take the latest Ekos poll of Liberal delegates’ second choice and assume that 50% will go with who their first choice supports and the remaining 50% will go with their predetermined second-choice (which can also be who their first choice supported), I get the following numbers for the second ballot:

Iggy: 30%
Rae: 26%
Dion: 21%
Kennedy: 18%
Dryden: 5%

Does anybody know how credible rumours of a Kennedy-Dion pact are? Because if their true, then it looks like Dion’s the man to beat.

]]> By: Abrawang http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25705 Abrawang Sat, 02 Dec 2006 18:06:38 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25705 Hey Paul. By now you know those rumours are true and that Dion must surely pass Rae on the 3rd ballot. It's also hard to see how Rae could pass Iggy, ergo the final ballot should be Iggy losing to Dion. CBC has been peddling the rumour that the Iggy forces may be trying to find a way of moving support to rae. This is plausible but logistically very difficult. What could they do? Tell their own supporters to vote for rae on Ballot 3? How could they do that without word quickly getting out? Hey Paul. By now you know those rumours are true and that Dion must surely pass Rae on the 3rd ballot.

It’s also hard to see how Rae could pass Iggy, ergo the final ballot should be Iggy losing to Dion.

CBC has been peddling the rumour that the Iggy forces may be trying to find a way of moving support to rae. This is plausible but logistically very difficult. What could they do? Tell their own supporters to vote for rae on Ballot 3? How could they do that without word quickly getting out?

]]> By: Abrawang http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25707 Abrawang Sat, 02 Dec 2006 20:16:53 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25707 3rd ballot went much as expected except that Dion was a bit stronger and Rae weaker than I thought. I reckon that more of Rae's delegates will go to Dion thus putting him over the top. Had i been at the convention, I would now be conflicted. I'd have been backing Rae but have been a bit closer on our current two big issues - the environment and the fiscal imbalance, to Dion. However, I suspect that the Libs have a better chance on beating Harper under Igy than under Dion. 3rd ballot went much as expected except that Dion was a bit stronger and Rae weaker than I thought.

I reckon that more of Rae’s delegates will go to Dion thus putting him over the top.

Had i been at the convention, I would now be conflicted. I’d have been backing Rae but have been a bit closer on our current two big issues - the environment and the fiscal imbalance, to Dion.

However, I suspect that the Libs have a better chance on beating Harper under Igy than under Dion.

]]> By: eeid http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25709 eeid Sun, 03 Dec 2006 00:50:30 +0000 http://democraticSPACE.com/blog/liberal2006/first-ballot-recap/#comment-25709 Had trouble sleeping last night with the rumours of Hall Findlay going to Rae. Going to Dion was the logical thing to do given her increasing reputation in the Liberal party circle. Her role in the renewal of the Liberals will be enormous. Had trouble sleeping last night with the rumours of Hall Findlay going to Rae. Going to Dion was the logical thing to do given her increasing reputation in the Liberal party circle. Her role in the renewal of the Liberals will be enormous.

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