10:05am
Not much going on here this morning. There are speeches for the executive positions for the Liberal Party. Mostly boring stuff. Actually, most of the early events until mid-afternoon aren’t very exciting. The excitement starts at 3pm, when the first round voting starts — there should really be no surprises here, unless one camp has seen a disproportionate number of no-shows. I am hearing that as of yesterday, there were a lot of Kennedy no-shows. So that could allow Dion to by-pass Kennedy.
Since there is a lull here, let’s do a round-up of what we know:
1. Brison held a party last night where candidates were invited to talk to Brison delegates. Ignatieff and Rae attended. Kennedy and Dion did not, although Kennedy sent Justin Trudeau, who might bring some of Brison’s youth candidates to Kennedy. Not really a surprise — Brison is most aligned with Ignatieff, and I would be shocked if Brison didn’t back him. I think most of Brison’s delegates will go to Ignatieff even if Brison backs someone else. But since Brison underperformed in the delegate selections, Ignatieff isn’t getting as big a boost as he would like.
2. The Dion-Kennedy pact is set to go into effect after the second ballot — that is, after Martha Hall Findlay is knocked off the ballot (but with Volpe, Dryden and Brison still in play, unless they drop out earlier). Word is that Dryden will stick around through the second ballot, presumably to maximize his influence (and who said that Dryden did know how to play the politics game?). I would be surprised in Brison didn’t go to Ignatieff early and Volpe to Rae early. It is rumored that Dryden will go to Dion or Rae, not Kennedy, even though I know that the husband of one of Kennedy’s organizers is a senior Dryden organizer.
3. Dartmouth-Cole Harbour MP Mike Savage appears poised to go to Rae (courtesy Maxwell’s House).
4. Kennedy had a big breakfast rally this morning — huge crowd, especially for a 7:30am event (too early for me)! He talked about engaging with Canadians everyday, not only at election time (courtesey Politics, as Chiefly Seen from Toronto)
5. Some questions about Rae’s signs — are they orange or red? Frankly, I didn’t notice. They didn’t seem orange to me, but maybe not a vigrant Liberal red. Yeah, I think that’s going to do Rae in, for sure! (ah, no…)
6. Some reaction to rejecting one member-one vote. I agree with Red Tory on this one. It’s hard to saw you are for renewal when you defend a system that prevents all members from ranking their choices. The argument for rejecting one member-one vote stems from the misrepresentation that one member-one vote means the end of conventions, which is patently untrue. Another argument? It’s entertaining and exciting. Now there’s a good reason to deny 98% of members the chance to make their voices fully heard! Pathetic… let’s be honest. The delegates at the convention have power. Why would they vote to give everyone that power? It’s self interest, mixed with a misrepresented arguments and clinging to tradition that rejected one member-one vote. And it sends Canadians a clear signal that the Liberal party is not ready for the kind of openness that is necessary going forward.
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