Aileen Carroll is some piece of work. Do the Liberals ever give up? We throw her to the curb during the 06 election, so she runs over to the provincial Liberals trying to get elected.

Give it up, the Liberals are going nowhere but down

Here we go again the conservatives saying nothing but bad mouthing the liberal candicate. the liberals and conservatives need to look up and see the NDP, they are runing a politician this time that nows how to run a campaign and get on tv he has been on tv 3 times since the election was called. The conservatives are so afraid to debate Larry Taylor that they are preventing him from joining the all candiates debate at the rotary club on thursday 13 sept. wake up Barrie the NDP is on the move.

Almost a 10,000 vote spread in 2003. Tory will do better than Eves. Aileen ‘Comeback’ Carroll should have asked to be a parachute candidate in a safe Toronto seat. Save some trees Joe and don’t go crazy with the signage. Easy PC hold.

I was involved intensly in the 2006 federal election campaign and during that period realized this: The liberals ran a good candidate (Carroll) However the only reason she was ever elected was simply because the right wing vote was split and Brown was the candidate 04′ and 06′, ran somebody else and they would’ve had er in 04′.

The Greens are once again running the same VERY STRONG candidate Erich Jacoby-Hawkins, and i’m very positive that any impact some think Taylor will make will be shut down by the Greens. Here is my early prediction:

CON- 47%
LIB- 35%
NDP- 9%
GRN- 7%
OTH- 2%

Other candidates could drop depending on how weak the campaign is, that 1% I would give to GRN/NDP/PC equally.

This will be a close race. Aileen Carroll is a big name in Barrie. If it wasn’t for the popularity of the current MP in Barrie Patrick Brown then should still be in the House of Commons. He ran a massive campaign against her that included lots of funds, 300 volunteers, and heavy voter ID. She barely lost. It was really a battle of the two strongest politicians in Barrie and she barely lost. Never has Barrie ever seen that many signs, literature and funds utilized in a race. Carroll losing to Brown in a close race is no blemish on her record. He was a formidable opponent. I suspect you will see him win the next federal election in a landslide partly because she is no longer on the ballot and partly because he has had a very high visibility since being elected.

She has targeted Joe because she sees his organization as weak. The provincial pc party here which I belong to only has 55 members and little to no volunteers. The federal association doesn’t seem to be involved which is a major break for Aileen. The Federal Conservative’s have not forgiven Joe for not helping out in the 2000, 2004 and 2006 federal elections. There also appears to be a backlash in the old Reform association towards John Tory’s school funding formula.

The PC’s should win this seat by 20 points based on the historic voting trends in Barrie but because of Aileen’s strength and Joe’s weakness; I suspect this race will be within 2 to 5 percentage points. I predict a small victory for Tascona.

As for the previous comments about Jacoby Hawkins, I don’t know what the previous writer is smoking as Jacoby Hawkins ran municipally and finished near dead last in a race for city council. He is not exactly a strong candidate.

Larry Taylor appears to be a stronger NDP candidate than normal. He is a former Mississauga Councillor and seems to have a good organizational game. The NDP are usually a distant third in Barrie but I predict they will do slightly better than the last election.

I give these comments in an objective fashion. I would love to see a Tory landslide here but it is going to be tight. Aileen is more popular than the Liberal brand.

Conservative 42 %
Liberal 39 %
NDP 12 %
Green 7 %

Very Odd. There appears to be only a few hundred PC signs in the City and no literature. Federally the City was covered in Conservative signs.

The Conservative MPP Joe Tascona here seems to have no organization or team. This should be an easy John Tory seat but I suggest it will be close.

Aileen has faired very poorly in debates but her team is making up for her lack of knowledge on provincial issues by outworking Tascona.

PC - 41 %
Liberal - 40 %
NDP - 12 %
Green -7 %

Reversal on faith based funding could be a big boost to Tascona. It might save his political skin. Watch out for polls in coming days.

Tascona’s big ad the day after Tory’s flip-flop is laughable. He’ll likely keep his seat anyway, but a front-page ad denouncing your own party’s major electoral plank says all you need to know about the Conservatives’s fitness to govern.

Please note this comment is in a series of comments by me. I’m doing a prediction for every riding. For this riding I’m predicting the winner will be the PCs

Joe Tascona may think he has it made, because he has been the incumbent for the last 12 years. He is smug and has increasingly become complacent. He has virtually done nothing for Barrie during his entire time in office. Enter Aileen Carroll, experienced, articulate and backed by a huge volunteer cast, the Liberals have been visible for months now, with signage everywhere, the city of Barrie is a sea of red and white. It’s going to be a close one here but i’m taking Aileen Carroll by 2000 votes. Joe Tascona, continue working full time at your law firm, because Barrie is sick and tired of having a part time MPP.

Election Prediction Project is calling this riding for Carroll:

http://www.electionprediction.org/2007_on/riding/004.php

I’m not from Barrie and perhaps not in a position to comment on this riding, but it looks like this one could be very close and may go red.

Check out some of the comments on the EPP site, they’re very interesting.

OH YEAH - Aileen Carroll who the voters turfed out of federal office in 2006 in the same area - talk about smug - she’ll finally be put out to pasture dor good by Tascona where she belongs! JACK

I’m glad Tascona is out. He has proven to be so homophobic in his opposition to equal marriage and of course he doesn’t appear to give a hoot about constituants who aren’t rich.
The only good Tory is a suppository!

Oooops…. Guess y’all were wrong, because Ailen did it, and gives Barrie a REAL MP for the first time in a long time….

I think both Tascona and Carroll shouldn’t of won, if anyone watched the debates it was clear the Erich Jacoby-Hawkins was the clear winner.

Hey all!!! Just a word of caution to our friend’ liberals in Barrie…It has been observed by some that will be a new political horizon to the conservatives ahead of us. New conservatives figures appear to be surging to rev. our ride association. Figures as Alex Nuttal, our Maverick Peter Silveira, and many others
Stay Tune.