Clearly a Conservative stronghold. The other parties should just take a pass and avoid the embarrassment.

Bruce Grey Owen Sound could be a nail-biter.
Historically likes its MPP feisty (think Agnes McPhail).
But the very public switchers to Jolley from Murdoch
suggests the riding public no longer wants Murdoch to be the public image that other Ontarians evoke to describe the residents of the riding.

Potentially interesting race… poll of the riding:

Murdoch (PC) 36.7%
Jolley (GPO) 27.5%
Hicks (Lib) 21.1%
Johnstone (NDP) 12.8%
Devries (FCP) 0.9%
Cook (Ref) 0.9%

Yes, that is Shane Jolley in a close second.

This poll says “Progressive” voices make up 60 per cent of the vote here. Interesting.

It also says Jolley gets his support from Libs and Tories, since NDP is up 3 per cent.

Considering the results of this poll, I came here hoping for more lively discussion. Ah well.

I’d be interested to know how the NDP and Liberal supporters in this riding feel about “strategic voting”, now that it would imply that their supporters should vote for Jolley to keep Murcoch from winning?

I’d love to see Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound make history again.

I don’t how progressive the Green vote is here. It seems more like the drop in Tory support and rise in Green support has to do with the school issue, and a rather racist backlash against the policy (religious conservatives surely have no problem with religious schools, it is the fact that many of those schools are Muslim they don’t like) from the right of the PC party is killing Murdoch (hence his squeamishness).

MJL, Shane Jolley did manage the best Green result nationwide in 2006 in this same (more or less) riding, so certainly a good part of it is his personal popularity rather than backlash.

Anyway, it doesn’t bother me if the voters are racists as long as the candidate is not (and isn’t baiting), and I don’t think that should bother Liberal and Green tactical voters.

Strategic voting and more NDP/Liberal/Conservative voters switching over to the Greens will see a Green victory here in Bruce-Grey-Owen Sound
Prediction:

Shane 34.5%
Bill 31.0%
Selwyn 20.5%
Paul 12.5%
Other 1.5%

Jolley has more % points then May did in LNC at this time during that campaign, and more importantly, he lives in the riding and is a very popular politician garnering over 12% in 2006 running a much weaker campaign and his FIRST campaign.
BGOS will see Green on Wednesday night

Sorry, meant Liberal or NDP tactical voters.

Party Favours

Shane Jolley could win over Murdoch, not necessarily for any Party reasons, but just because people know him and like him better than the other candidates, and because he would represent his constituents well in Parliament.

People understand that the “Party” is only one half of the equation when voting. Our system is also based on local representation, and if people feel that Shane Jolley cares about the needs of his riding, and would represent those needs well in Government, they will make him their MPP.

This area is still loyal to Bill Murdoch, he might have lost a few votes to other parties because of the faith-based issue, but hardly enough to lose. Just take a look around at the lawn signs (and not just in Owen Sound), most of his are on private property. The other signs are mostly on public property, placed there by campaign volunteers - not voters. I tend to put more stock in what the voters actually say and do, rather than believe in fairytale polls paid for by the green party. Murdoch will definitely be here for another term.

Are you kidding me? Especially in Owen Sound Shane Jolley has more signs up on both public AND private property. I visit Hanover very often, and even there there are ATLEAST 10% more signs up.

No, I’m not kidding! What I say about sign placement stands, there’s more Murdoch signs on private property than other candidates. This riding is not just about the larger centres, there’s mighty big territory surrounding them with rural residents that will always vote for Bill Murdoch.

Please note this comment is in a series of comments by me. I’m doing a prediction for every riding. For this riding I’m predicting the winner will be the PCs

if they bother to vote, do you know how low rural voter turnout is compared to urban?

Uh- much higher actually if you bother to look at past poll numbers rather than your Green crystal ball.
Calling Liberal 3rd here is going to create an ooopsie.

Tonight history will be made, after all these years it finally happened. Congratulations Jolley, you’ll certainly be jolly tonight. Done and DONE.

Guess the Green vote was quite a bit higher than expected and its a legitimate target for the next election. This seat is possibly winnable for the Greens in a byelection if Murdoch retires and in the future. Hes almost 63 and it cant be long now.