I think John Tory will run in this riding – it’s a wealthy WASP suburban Toronto riding that’s tailor-made for him. The Tory brand is so unappealing in inner-city Toronto that it would be suicidal for Tory to run in his home riding of Rosedale. Kathleen Wynn may be respected but if Tory’s the candidate he’ll easily win.

Hardly suburban. Hardly WASPY excepting Lawrence Park. More Jewish neighbourhoods on the west side and in the north east. Many Asian communities too. Who are you Losh and when’s the last time you’ve been to my neighbourhood? This place is not WASPY at all.

John Tory is running in this riding. He will win

William Demers, my definition of “suburban” may be different than yours. It is suburban in character even if it’s now part of the Megacity. As for it being WASPy, it is certainly not exclusively so but it is much more so than most 416 ridings. It’s a good fit for Tory. I believe he’ll win.

According to the 2001 census, this is the most Muslim riding in Canada. Mostly because of the overstuffed apartment buildings between the CP Rail tracks and the DVP.

Interesting to see if Tory can connect in this immigrant-heavy, multicultural riding.

I was shocked to have John Tory come to my door personally a few weeks ago. He should pick up this riding with ease. The star wrote an article about a week ago saying that John will win the riding but Wynn may run a strong campaign that ties Tory down to the riding. Im not sure if he’ll win Premier, but anyone who comes to my door gets my vote, especially since I have never met Kathleen Wynn before.

While I don’t think anybody in their right mind would call this anything other than a win for Tory, the fact that he’s running against a Liberal incumbent does mean that he’ll have to spend more time in the riding than he would have otherwise, meaning he won’t have as much time to travel around the province being the leader.

As for Gary Malkowski, while it’s great to see him back, I wish he’d picked a different riding.

Gary Malkowski is not the NDP candidate. The NDP candidate has been nominated yet in the riding

Note: someone from the NDP informed me that Gary Malkowski is not the candidate (the nomination meeting has not happened yet). -GM

He will easily win the riding without ease. Any media coverage he receives the voters of Don Valley West will vote for him based on his performance. Its like Don Valley West will be voting directly for their Premier rather than a candidate representing a party or the leader.

So Janice D. What is Kathleen Wynn comes to your door-does she get you vote or is it just the first one to your door. I am not counting out Kathleen Wynn!

That’s an interesting way to decide who to vote for, Janice D. If everyone in the riding felt this way, Kathleen Wynne would win in a landslide.

She knocked on my door two years ago, with no election coming up and no need to campaign. She said she has been canvassing regularly throughout the last four years in order to get feedback from the people she represents and in order to personally meet as many of her constituents as possible. It’s a shame that Tory decided to run here as there are far easier ridings for him.

Kathleen is going to “Wynne”. Tory is toast.

I decided not to run at this time. Mike Kenny has been nominated as NDP candidate for Don Valley West.

The only way John Tory will win this riding to work it everyday until October 10th. You will see Kathleen Wynn gradually pull ahead if he does not.

my sources within the PC Party tell me this riding will be a fight for tory. there will be no “winning with ease” for anyone.

It was risky for Tory to run in this riding. Very risky. Wynne is a horrible Minister but is very good in her riding.

Wynne is a “horrible” minister? Horrible by whose standards exactly? This is the same person that school board chairs (not just teachers’ unions) are calling the “best education minister in a generation”.

Tory just lost my vote with his education proposal. Liberal lies and broken promises prevent me from voting for Wynn. I guess Mike Kenny is the beneficiary.

Wynne knocked my door last time when I did not have my voting right and talked about Tenants Act and Rent issue and Education issues of DV West which she came to know as being the Trustee. Looking back now, she kept her promise. Now when I have my right to vote she is getting without doubt. By the way, from what I have see in the past years she is most active MPP in her constituent as pointed out by LF.

As for McGuinty’s broken promise, I think with reluctance he did the most logical thing, implement Health Tax with a reasonable formula rather than the Ont Gov go Bankrupt because of the publicly concealed $5.8 Billion deficit. Leadership is about responsibility and he did not budge out of it. Now when Ont Gov is financially sound compared to last time, I do not see Tory take this as an opportunity and mention that he will remove the Health Tax, rather he would divert money to Ethnic School (which my Ethnicity is inclusive) when existing education system still requires more investment and proper planning amidst 100+ student increase every year in every school of the cities.

I think John Tory lives in a fool paradise. He is not only going to loose his seat but also his whole career. I think he did not make a wise decision by running against Kathleen as she is the beloved leader in Don Valley West and will easily win in this riding

Hah! So, Tory is not a fool at all, he did mention to take out the Health Tax. Pretty cool. Strategically, he took the lime light by announcing fund for religious schools but slowly and surely its back firing with a concern among people with WHY? AnyWHO, how would he make up the shortfall for taking out Health TAX and shifting of Education fund to religious schools, not clearly pointed out. Hampton’s proposal on the other hand looks enticing, as usual a wonderful NDP plan.

Any comments on the referendum of the MMP, I’de like MMP so that Green Party can get in the Parliament to balance out the mood on the House.

Whatever the outcome, I live in DV West and here Wynne rules.

Libs and Wynne are dreaming in DVW. No way John Tory loses this riding. The PC’s will improve on the disastrous 2003 campaign. No scare factor here so the NDP vote will increase. With regard to religious school funding, only the PC’s and Greens have policies which would end the discrimination. Tory would extend the funding to non-Catholics while de Jong prefers the elimination of the separate boards in favour of a single secular public system. The position of the Libs (and NDP) that the status quo should continue is shameful.

Regardless of whether or not it’s shameful to you, MikeyG, it’s certainly a much more popular position than Tory’s proposal. The riding will be won or lost in swing polls, such as many in Leaside, and these areas have a strong affinity for public education and for what Wynne has done for it, both before and during her term as education minister.

Unless there is a provincial PC meltdown or he does exceptionally badly in the debate, Tory will win, but Wynne is a tough competitor. In the end, it boils down to voters choosing a new Premier or Leader of the Opposition as their MPP and it will be a deciding factor.

Latest Ipsos reid poll shows the following breakdown for 416 ridings:
Libs 39, PC 33, NDP 21, GRN 7
With those numbers on election day, this riding and Willowdale will most certainly go PC. Etobicoke Lakeshore and Etobicoke Centre would also be in play. Outside shot in Don Valley East as well.

Libs / PC aside, if Tory wins from DVW we will not find him here to work for this riding as what has been done all this time by Wynne. Wynne is essential to DVW and her hard work needs to pay off or else loyalty to riding will simply go in vain. I believe the riding is not that much shameless.

That fool and his support for faith based schools will lose the PC’s this riding and probably this election. Seriously where does it end when you start funding these seperate schools, everyone from every religion or any group will now want some funding, how much are they willing to spend on it? I just dont see that support as a good thing.

Yes let’s support public education by not spending millions to give Catholics a free education.

This riding will be very close to call! But I think John Tory will prevail at the end.

There is certainly a lot of rhetoric in this blog but I do agree that the riding will be very close…probably less than 1,000 votes between them, but I am giving it to Tory. His vote will be more easily mobilized than Whynne’s and while both have good organizations you won’t see Whynne on the TV every night as you will Tory.

If you want to send your kid to a religious based school it is your right to do so, but it is not the responisbility of the government or tax payer to pay for it. I don’t even agree with the current structure of the Catholic system, but that is due to our history. Remember, separation of school and state. Tory is a fool to even hint at the fact that the government would fund such a system. I hope he gets crushed in this riding. Remember what the Conservatives did last time. You don’t like the current Liberal government? The previous makes them look like saints.

This issue is showing how RACIST many of you Liberals are.

How dare you compare George Wallace’s policies with bringing in 53,000 students into the system? How dare you compare a policy where 650,000 faith based students are already funded against a policy that lead to the death of many of my ancestors.

Until 1950 blacks were not allowed to be in the same room as whites in Ontario. Yet you are compare funding faith based schools with 3 concrete conditions -as Dalton McGuinty stated while in opposition – to George Wallace.

This proves what many in the black community say about some Liberals – you take our vote for granted and still see us as NIGG@RS!

Disagree with a policy based on fact but NOT on the back of the 622,000 blacks in this province whose Forefathers and Ancestors who fought against segregation here in Ontario and around the world.

All of this talk about Mike harris is a joke. PAUL MARTIN stated this mess. Over $17 Billion in CUTS!!!!

Look at his first 3 budgets and how much he cut in transfer payments. He downloaded on the provinces. How come you Liberals NEVER acknowledge that?

I quote from the Federal Budget documents of 1997 (Finance Minister – PAUL MARTIN LIBERAL)

http://www.fin.gc.ca/budget97/fact/fiscfte.html

By 1998-99, federal program spending will be reduced to $103.5 billion, down from $120 billion in 1993-94; it will be the sixth consecutive year of absolute decline. Measured in relation to the size of the economy, this spending will be down to slightly less than 12 per cent of GDP, compared to almost 20 per cent of GDP just over a decade ago. In fact, it will be at its lowest level in half a century.

Between 1995 to 1998/99 federal Transfer payments to Ontario fell from $7.88 Billion to $4.5 Billion. Source, http://www.fin.gov.on.ca/english/budget/ontariobudgets/1999/99papere.pdf

Yet between that time period, a Progressive Conservative Government increased spending in the following areas:

Health Care
$17.4 Billion to $18.9 Billion during that same time period.

Education
$8.3 Billion to up $13.1 Billion during that time period.

So what is all the hoopla about?

The numbers don’t back up the hype and Liberals need to call out Paul Martin’s downloading on this province. Which lead to the Ontario Government to download some services as well.

Get your facts straight before you distort the facts!

Check this out:

New polling out in DVW:

Tory: 37%
Wynne: 52%

At the outset of this campaign, I remember seeing numbers that showed that Wynne was up by only 2%?

I look at these figures now and see that Tory has to spend some more time in his own riding, which is tough because it will take him off the campaign trail right at the exact moment when he is trying to re-start his campaign.

At first, I thought that Tory would win the battle, but lose the war (beat win, but lose to McGuinty) but now I think he’ll lose both.

This issue is showing how RACIST many of you Liberals are.
That comment just goes to prove how you Tories are such whiners.
Ok, so a comparison of George Wallace and John Tory is not exactly apt, but the issue of segregation of our school system is.
Muslim kids go to muslim schools.
Jewish kids go to jewish schools.
Christian kids go to Christian school.
Hindu kids go to hindu schools.
John Tory is segregating our children and dividing the province along religious and ethnic lines.
I got $10 that says ‘Think’ is a paid Tory. Nobody would take a comment like that six times around the dancefloor if they weren’t partisan.

Tory essentially just backtracked on his main platform promise with a week left. Can somebody say flip-flop? How’s that for leadership and integrity? He was personally more popular than McGuinty, but i doubt thats the case now.
Wynne wins and it will be more than a squeaker. 1500-2000 votes, if not more.

The flip-flop probably kills him here. It’s not like he had much of a lead to blow, if he ever really had one. Toast.

A quick about face and that’s all she wrote folks.

Tory will lose this seat for sure now. The only think keeping him alive was the faith based issue in this riding.

Let’s face it folks, the flip flop was a reaction to the DVW poll which shows John Tory behind. For three weeks Tory says we are firm; there will be no free vote. He beats up and calls his candidates names for asking for a free vote, because they are feeling the heat. Too bad says John, tough it out. But when HIS riding is on the line, well time for some quick adjustments. You can just hear the PC candidates around Ontario all saying now they really don’t like it and they would vote against it. You know what really hits home here: the 50,000 or so students and parents who the PCs said should be brought into the tent; the ones the PCs cared so much about. The deep fellings the PCs had for them — well the PC’s are leaving them behind faster than you can say -john-in-the-box. Now that John Tory’s seat may be in question, these 50,0000 kids don’t even get mentioned any more by John Tory. It seems these students and their parents were just props for the PC election campaign. You what folks, McGuinty made a tough decision to save health care and education from the Tory debt left behind after the last election. It was unpopular, but he has defended it time and time again as the right thing to do. This guy has more principles and integrity than John Tory will ever have.

Mr. Tory:

Alabama George Wallace’s Motto will not get you anywhere except down:

He stood on the steps of Alabama University and declared “SEGREGATION FOR EVER” and that took him down.

You have lost your credibility in many ethnic communities.

Check out these new polling numbers for DVW. Tory is done!

http://www.compas.ca/data/071001-DonValleyWestToryVsWynne-EP.pdf

It is with the greatest regret that we are forced to remove all comments by Malik, Naim_Malik, albert_chang, sue_sung, jackkie, josh_siato, John Lee, Josephine, Mark, Robert, and Chester_Rochard in the comments sections of the ridings of Thornhill, Richmond Hill, Willowdale, and Don Valley West. These are all from the same person. Likewise of Yates, Shawn, Mike L, Ancasterian, and Mike Thick. We consider this a blatant attempt to subvert genuine debate by fabricating multiple identities in an attempt to amplify their voice and creating the impression of consensus. We are committed to free speech, but such abuse will not be tolerated on DemocraticSPACE. We hope our readers will understand our position.

I am changing my prediction here to a PC loss after Tory’s about face. I also think this will result in a catastrophe for the PC provincewide. My prediction is that they will now be virtually shut out of Toronto (even Willowdale is now TCTC) and lose some marginal seats that they should have won (Barrie, Oakville, several Peel ridings, Oshawa,Peterborough and Niagara Falls)!

It is a sad state of affairs for Tory who had one of the easiest paths to victory facing a lucklustre McGuinty, but faltered. I also expect him to step down as PC leader right after the election.

Why did he fail? First he ran with an unpopular initiative ignoring the polls telling him it is a loser. More importantly when it came time to explain to voters why he was doing it he failed. Instead of pushing the fairness and inclusivity factor and accusing McGuinty of bias and special interest since he went to a Catholic school, he fumbled and allowed the Liberals to paint him as a cross between Mike Harris and Bin Laden. Finally, when it mattered, he gave up on the Faith based schools, making a mockery of his main theme “Leadership Matters”!

Like most of you, I thought Tory’s sort of about face on the Faith Based Funding issue would finish him – I even emailed John and told him so (he’s an old friend) – but a few interesting things have happened since his announcement – I watched him defend his change of position on TVO and was amazed at how well he explained his change of heart – when the recent polls came out showing the PC’s basically 10 points behind the Liberals, it made me realize that he had nothing to lose, and maybe something to gain by trying the new approach on this issue – in other words, if sticking to his original hardline on this issue meant certain defeat and continuing loss of support, then why not take a different softer approach on the faith based schools issue – I then saw Robin Sears on CBC ralking about how impressed he was at seeing Tory defend his decision, and that he might surprise a few people on election night – only time will tell if his change of position has an even worse effect on PC fortunes, or whether it has no effect, or helps him recover some of the support he once had – but I’m beginning to think the latter – and the Star Poll today seems to confirm it – over 70% of respondents viewed his decision favourably – and those favouring faith based schools still seem supportive – I guess he’s still their only hope – and finally, I attended an All Candidates Meeting tonight – and instead of that issue being the focus, voters were more interested in hammering the Liberal Candidate over broken promises and the Health Care tax – the PC candidate received a strong applause! INTERESTING ELECTION LOLOL! JMHO – JACK!

Ottawa Citizen Poll puts Kathleen Wynne at 52% and John Tory at 37% with the GP at 6% and the NDP at 5%. I think its game over for John Tory in DVW

I think it’s a mistake to underestimate the strength of any major party leader in the riding he/she decides to run in – polls reflect committed residents only – some don’t vote in an election – and then there’s the undecided vote, and some of them will vote in the election – and the undecided vote is still very high in this province………and very volatile – I’d be more interested in the final polls before election day – they’ll give a better picture of the final tallies, especially since Tory’s revised platform on faith based funding – remember when Charest was being counted out in Quebec……….and then there’s always Truman holding the newspaper LOLOL! I see McGuinty was caught with a faux pas this morning! JACK

I think you’re dead wrong on this prediction – whatever the recent polls say, electoral history dictates quite clearly that the party leader never loses their seat if the party is not crashing and burning. The PC’s may be 10 points behind, but they would need to be at least another 10 points behind for Tory to lose this outright. This is fairly comfortable PC country by Toronto standards, and Tory should win this riding, though perhaps by the slimmest of margins. As for the Citizen poll – keep in mind the margin of error (almost 6%), the fact that he has essentially reversed himself on faith-based schools, and the fact that the only poll that matters is on election day.

Do not count John Tory out until the fat lady sings, he’s a veteran political operative and if you’re counting him out this early in the game my personal prediction is you’re going to have egg on your face come October 11th.

If it does happen, it will be a truly remarkable outcome. To my knowledge, no leader of the opposition in Ontario has lost his or her seat in living memory.

It’s tough to unseat an opposition leader because he or she gets so much more airtime than a local MP or MPP. Even if that coverage is mixed or negative, it still seems to play out in the Leader’s favour, witness John Turner’s win in Vancouver Quadra in ‘84 when the Liberal Party was getting killed across the country.

Federal NDP Leader David Lewis lost his seat to Ursula Appolloni in ‘74 and there have been shut outs before in both New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. Opposition leaders whose parties were in the course of winning an election have been defeated, including Clyde Wells and Robert Bourassa but I don’t think it has happened in Ontario provincially.

Ryan/klitter — the Compas poll showed Wynne at 52 and Tory at 37 with a MOE of 5.4 (it said 5.6 but 333 samples is 5.4). so best case scenario for Tory: is Wynne 46.6, Tory 42.6, still trailing. remember, Tory isn’t losing his incumbent seat, he’s running in a riding that the Libearals easily won last time, with a popular cabinet minister, on the very issue over which Tory has been racked over the coals. potential voters could easily think to themselves, will Tory survive as leader if the Libs win a majority? if not, there’s no advantage to voting for the leader this time… so the particular circumstances are very different than most party leaders face.

Let me get this straight: you’re basing your prediction that the party leader, who almost won the mayorlty in Toronto and is still highly respected wihtin the city, is not going to win a riding that has been traditionally represented by members of his party on only the most recent polls that put the PCs 10 points behind provincewide and one poll putting him behind in the riding specifically? For goodness sake, this riding only went to Wynne by 6,000 votes last time, Turnbull, who is no John Tory, put up a valiant fight and a great showing even given the clobbering of the party province-wide.

It would have been much more prudent, given the state of electoral history, to have waited at least for a poll to come out seeing the effect of dropping the faith-based schools proposal. As it is, you’re out on a limb and I truly believe you’re going to be proven wrong come e-day.

Ryan, klitter,

If your comments are directed at me, rest assured that I changed my prediction only after the flip flop. The issue is not so much faith based schools – I wasn’t too crazy about that initiative to begin with. However Tory tried to take a principled stand and I admired him for it. His last move is an attempt to cater to the polls and save embattled provincial PC candidates but will not save him since it disintegrates his main slogan “leadership matters”. Kathleen Wynne is no McGuinty and is well known and popular. As for the fence sitters, now that it is 99 percent certain that Liberals will be reelected (the solitary 1 percent since McGuinty could still blow it), the opportunistic voter will take an Education Minister as their MPP over the Leader of the Opposition any day!

Its not just one poll that has Tory trailing in this riding. According to the current projection on this site, KATHLEEN WYNNE has a lead of 5+ points in this riding. And that is the biggest lead she has had the entire campaign. Its a tight race but she has the momentum. And with less than a week to go it doesn’t look good for Tory here or province wide.

I agree with Ryan – we haven’t seen a poll yet indicating what effect the revised faith based policy might have – the change in policy has been widely favoured by most voters – final polls should reflect this – best to wait till next Monday before calling this one……….and several others! JACK!

I talked to some Liberal insiders and they’re convinced that the COMPAS poll numbers are inaccurate. In fact, they believe there might even be an ulterior motive. COMPAS is well known to be Tory-friendly and is equally well known to be unreliable. I’ve spoken to the heads of two polling firms in the past who basically said that COMPAS is a joke.

The feeling is that the numbers were manipulated (perhaps by calling only Liberal-friendly polls in the riding) to make Liberal supporters complacent and to give a wake up call to Conservatives. The same Liberal insiders believe that the race is actually still very tight, with Wynne possibly a couple of percentage points ahead.

The print press in Ontario seems to think that Tory’s flip-flop on funding for religious schools will actually hurt him. He has broken the most talked about promise of his campaign. How can voters trust him now? Also, he still plans to have a free vote on the issue. Opponents of funding for religious schools cannot be certain of how PC MPPs will vote on the issue. So the only way to ensure funding for religious schools never passes is to vote for the Liberals and keep Tory out of power.

A friend corrected me yesterday on my assertion that Ontario’s official opposition leaders have not been defeated in their seats. Ron Kanter defeated Larry Grossman in David Peterson’s 1987 sweep.

And John Wintermeyer, the Liberal Leader of the Opposition, was defeated during the Robart years! JACK!

Ryan,

The projections that Greg has up only reflect his most recent rolling average of polls. His official prediction about what will happen election night will be the last projection that he does.

The point, VRC, is that it the riding should still be TCTC and not in the Liberal column as there is insufficient evidence to state otherwise at this point.

According to a latest COMPAS poll, Wynne leads Tory by a 52-31% margin! I have this theory that John Tory would rather lose his riding because the job of Leader of the Opposition is not very interesting for him, since he likes to make decisions and he can’t really do that in Opposition.

JT is a popular guy who can be seen in the TV every day. On the other hand Wynne is a person who cannot be seen on the TV everyday for sure but who is more popular in DVW because of her hardwork, not only among Liberals, also PCs. On top of that, she has made herself available in every single public gatherings for her exposure and in every public debate and QA times in DVW. JT only made one debate presence.

Now, considering the statics of the riding people here are more into facts than face and fame, more into results. Wynne has done that for this place even before becoming MPP.

Before anyone even considers Wynne a loser / winner I believe you must consider what it is looking from the ground in DVW rather than what reports are saying.

I am a DVW resident and from what it seems that it will be a tough call no doubt, Wynne team has not taken this election for granted and Wynne will win.

Precisely SHANE, and that is why both Tory’s and Wynne’s camps should be out there, canvassing, and leaving no stone unturned until election day – DVW is still too close to call! JACK!

The Liberals are the real greens. If you are thinking of voting for the environment vote for Kathleen Wynne. She has shown real leadership in adopting all of the recommendations in “Shaping our Schools shaping our future” a report by the curriculum council’s panel to examine how our kids learn about the environment headed by former Canadian astronaut Dr. Roberta Bondar. Environmental education to help kids learn how to become stewards of this province and to learn to live sustainably will be back in Ontario’s classrooms under Kathleen’s guidance.

The Tories by contrast make little reference to the environment and scored 8 to the Liberals 34 in a Toronto Star survey of the environmental platforms of the parties.

I’m not sure why Jack is so passionate that this riding should not be called. It’s a fair point to say that it is close, but as Election Day is nearly here, a prediction must be made at some point.

Since Tory has yet to break into a lead in a poll, that gives the advantage to Wynn and is an indicator that it is leading more her way than his mathematically.

Even Tory insiders are admitting now that it will be difficult for Tory to win this seat, so I would call it for the Liberals. New article from today says:

“One frustrated Conservative member said it will take a “miracle” for Tory — who also has to worry about a difficult battle against Education Minister Kathleen Wynne in his hand-picked riding of Don Valley West — to win his seat, let alone become premier.”

http://www.ctv.ca/servlet/ArticleNews/story/CTVNews/20071005/ontario_pcinsiders_071005/20071005?hub=Politics

Ryan,

Actually, that’s not the point and based on your responses you seem to be missing the point of this website altogether. If this is the first election you’ve been following on DS, then I can understand that viewpoint.

However, this is how Greg does things; he updates his projections frequently based on what the current polls are saying and that allows people interested in how seat projections change over time to follow those changes and how they relate to popular support in a consistent model.

It does not need to be TCTC because it is not a prediction; it is a projection of what might happen were the election held today. He usually posts his final “predictions” a couple of days before the actual election, so you’ll be able to see what they are well in advance of the actual day.

That having been said, I agree with you at the moment that this race is far from over. Any number of things can happen between now and Wednesday and indeed I’ve talked to friends of mine working for both Wynne and Tory who are all-but-convinced that they are going to be winning that seat come election day.

There’s kind of no point to vote for John Tory in this riding it seems. Even if he manages to win, his party is not doing well and will probaby want a new leader when they do poorly in the election overall. In that case Kathleen would be easiy re-elected in the next election running against some generic PC candidate, when John Tory leaves politics. (At least provincially, maybe he’ll try his luck with federal next)

And…I’m a little annoyed by what someone had posted earlier.
“This issue is showing how RACIST many of you Liberals are.”
I am Jewish and I don’t support extending funding to faith-based Jewish schools. I am not racist. Don’t label people in such a cruel way. Calling someone racist is a pretty big statement.

WELL the Angus Reid poll shows things tightening up again – only 6 points between the Liberals and Tories – 40% to 34% – could be interesting! JACK!

The Angus Reid poll does not show things tightening up again, because you can only compare it to the previous Angus Reid poll. Pollsters have different methodologies and ask different questions. In fact, this Angus Reid result shows a larger spread than the previous Angus Reid poll, just as the new Ipsos-Reid, Decima, and SES polls show larger spreads than the previous polls done by those firms.

It shows roughly the same result as it did on September 25th before the PC’S really took a dive – to me, it means the PC’s have recovered what they lost during this period – it doesn;t mean they’ll win, but the margin won’t be a runaway majority, and now there’s no doubt John Tory will win in Don Valley West – my projection at least 3,000 votes – and Angus Reid have a great deal more experience and credability as pollsters than most! JACK!

Say what you want Jack. The reality is that the PC’s have been steadily trending downward for all of the polling firms. You can make up your own interpretations – that won’t help Tory win. There’s a chance that Angus Reid is closer to reality, but given that Decime, Ipsos, and SES all say otherwise, I would tend to believe that Angus is the outlier.

tory is history. pathetic campaign and faith based school funding was stupid. these faith school students can go to our public and separate schools.mcguinty is uploading from cities. i voted liberal for the 1st time in my life as i do not believe john tory.his advisors are amateurs and policies are jokes.

In spite of Jack’s valiant efforts, you can not save a disaster (credit to HH who is himself somewhat of a disaster-the other Jack please intervene:)), which is what Tory’s campaign degenerated to. In addition to my earlier comments, the key concerns would be his inconsistency and, strangely for an experienced businessman, lack of judgement.

Tory obviously did not realize that backing away from an initiative that he himself raised in stature, would call his leadership and principles into question. With the economy doing well and having 2 “unprincipled” leaders to choose from, the public will in 99 percent of the cases go for the incumbent!

McGuinty is plain lucky – first Eves and now Tory!

Liberals will most certainly win the election, most likely with a majority or bare majority – I believe the NDP is gaining a bit of strength though, and this will cut into Liberal margins in most Toronto seats, and may even help to upset the PC’s in Oshawa – I think Tory’s change of position has helped him to get back to the 35% level – so in summary, I see the liberal vote declining by about 5 to 6% from last time, the PC’s about the same or only marginally higher than last time, and the NDP likely up about 5 or 6% – I do believe all major Party Leaders will win their seats – in DVW, the increase in NDP support in the less affluent part of the Riding will cut into Wynne’s vote – I also see the PC’s narrowly winning in Willowdale in Toronto – my final prediction: LIBERALS 54 – PC’s 38 – NDP – 15! JACK!

VRC, you’re either just a complete idiot masquerading as somebody who has a legitimate basis for being condescending or you’re simply illiterate, one or the other. It doesn’t matter whether this is what is going to happen on election day or whether this is only what would happen today based on the most recent polls, either way there was insufficient evidence to make that kind of call at that point. Now, it’s a bit different, but then, it was certainly the case that DS was out on a limb back when I originally posted. Don’t you dare accuse me or anyone else here of following an election on here for the first time because they happen to disagree with you – I have followed several and I would put my political creds up against yours any day.

I would suggest that you learn how to read properly before making condescending and ignorant statements like the one that you just made.

Ryan,

I was in no way being condescending to you or your opinion and if you actually read the entirety of my post you will notice in the last paragraph I agreed with your opinion in the riding. If it came across as being condescending, then I apologize.

I also think it’s a bit laughable that your criticism of me is that my post is condescending and in the same sentence you happen to call me an idiot or an illiterate person; not exactly an intelligent way of debating.

You probably do have more political cred than I do; I’m a young student with little-to-no political experience and I will admit that freely. However, if this “political cred” of yours is where you got the notion that it is somehow intelligent for you to insult people that disagree with you, then I would question how useful it is to have it.

The problem, which you would have understood had you taken the time to read my previous post, is not one of politics, but rather one of statistical analysis and in particular the type of statistical analysis that Greg has been doing on here for quite some time.

The rolling average of polls that he uses for his projections showed enough space in the CIs of Wynne and Tory that he projected the riding in favour of Wynne; perfectly in keeping with the methodology that he’s established over a long period of time on this website. Therefore, projecting the riding as TCTC (as per your suggestion) wouldn’t make sense in the particular projection we’re discussing because once again it would be different from the method he uses for making his projections.

He usually, from what I can remember, does not even deviate from that when he makes his final predictions for each election, so I don’t see why he would need to do it for a projection, which is basically just a prediction of what might happen if the election were held that day.

You disagree with that, which is perfectly fine. I certainly don’t expect everyone to agree with me. However, your inability to do so without insulting me (and I’m a person who agreed with your main point about the riding race being far from over) shows a lot more about you than any of your insults do about me.

I would suggest that in the future you take your own advice about learning to read properly before insulting people who for the most part agree with your opinions.

This article from today mentions that since John Tory is spending time in his own riding in the final days of the campaign, he must face a tough competition there:

LINK

Please note this comment is in a series of comments by me. I’m doing a prediction for every riding. For this riding I’m predicting the winner will be the Libs

Here’s something i just read:
You know how people call the Liberal leader Fibber Mcguinty? Tory earned himself a new nickname: ‘Flipper’.

Minister Wynn is the hardest working candidate here. It should be an easy victory Wednesday. As for Flipper Tory, his whole campaign was to attack attack attack poor leadership and broken promises. Now, he reverses his decision on faith based funding because halve of his OWN party does not support him. Very poorly executed game plan, i’m guessing Tory loves being the opposition leader. Leadership matters, absolutely right, and that’s why we will be getting a Liberal majority Wednesday. “Four more years, four more years!!!”

Decima Poll does show Tory winning by about 3,000 votes in DVW – adios Wynne! JACK

Jack, do you mean the Decima poll showing the Liberals at 42% and the Conservatives at 31%? That one? That’s the one that says Tory will win by 3000 votes? Please enlighten us as to what poll you are referring to, or you will lose whatever credibility you have left here.

LF – I never have credibility with Liberals LOLOL – that’s why my predictions are always right on – yeah……………same poll, Liberal Majority, but 2 seats in Toronto, DVW and Willowdale! JACK!

Yeah, while the Liberals are going to win big province wide, I’m still hesitant about saying that this riding would be an easy win for anyone. If forced to make a prediction (since TCTC in my opinion is a bit of a cop out), I guess I would go with Wynne, but the truth is I’m too much of a whimp to really predict anything in this riding ;) I still think it’s too close.

In any case, we’ll find out soon enough.

While this comment may be premature, I want to get it in before the election!

It is hard to believe but it seems almost certain that Liberals will be returned in a landslide. Of all the predictions I would never have guessed this even a few weeks ago!

John Tory has done irreparable damage to the PC party and to the province. His demise is likely to give rise to a more radical PC leader (Tim Hudak please stand up), further polarizing the electorate, and make the Liberal machine into the “natural governing party”, much like Japan’s LDP.

I am sure that Tory is an honourable man but his lack of common sense judgement and lacklustre performance has failed all of us and I fear we will be paying the price for years to come.

Hi,
a word from the barricades:

I’ve just come home from scrutineering and it must be said the Wynne supporters are out in full force. Very few people out there yet from the PC – and the one I talked too was very depressed about the negative (and/or absent) reception he’s getting.

Wynne’s supporters, on the other hand, were out in full force: not only voting early, but in significant numbers too. She’ll need a lot of people to come out, of course, since she’s running against a party leader, but she may be able to hold on to her seat.

Just for the fun of, let’s get ahead of ourselves: if she does manage to keep Tory out of Parliament, can McGuinty do anything else less than reward her with somethin like ‘depute leader’ or something like that?

PS and before Liberals start congratulating themselves too much: let’s hope they show some (a lot) of humility and even some regret if they win tonight. Because contrary to all the campaign spin they are not winning because the voters think they’ve done a good job – at all. If they show themselves too exuberant and self-congratulatory, they’re only going to piss off even more people – including some of those who voted for them while holding their proverbial noses.
So it’s up to them start performing for real – for example, lets try and fullfill some of the earlier promises that were broken…