Gerry Phillips will run again and win for the Liberals. With the borders extending east to Midland Ave. and Brimley Rd., the Liberals and NDP might pick up a few extra votes that will have little or no effect on the results. The PC’s will have the most to gain with a closer race and John Tory as leader since he appeals to the kind of moderate conservatives that dominate the voting booths here. Phillips will still win convincingly because of his focus on fiscal issues and the lack of any substantive challengers who might know how to capture the imagination of a disillusioned electorate. With a closer race between the Liberals and PC’s, expect voter turnout to nudge up slightly from 53% to 55% or even 60%.

Prediction: 56%(-5) Lib; 33%(+3) PC; 8%(+2) NDP; 2% GRN; 1% IND/OTH

Now that most candidates have been nominated, it looks like I have to revisit a comment I made a year ago:

“Phillips will still win convincingly because of…the lack of any substantive challengers who might know how to capture the imagination of a disillusioned electorate.”

Gerry Phillips (Liberal) still has the most favourable odds to win; it will still be difficult to inspire the disillusioned electorate to vote for alternatives; but, contrary to tradition in Scarborough–Agincourt, there will be substantive challengers this time around from all three of the major opposition parties.

As the PC candidate, John Del Grande was first elected as TCDSB trustee in the area in 2003. His father and trustee before him, Mike Del Grande, aggressively campaigned to edge out 15-year incumbent Sherene Shaw for the position of city councillor in the same election. While John’s campaign was virtually non-existent next to other challengers, he managed to be elected in 2003, largely because of his father’s name recognition. In spite of a lacklustre entry into politics, John’s few years as a trustee surely helped his re-election in 2006. Now experienced and well-connected, John Del Grande finds himself between two wings of conservatism. If he distances himself from his father’s neo-conservatism as John Tory is trying to distance himself from Mike Harris, then Del Grande might have a good chance of branding himself as the next Gerry Phillips and make significant gains in the years to come. But if the Del Grande plan is to push Harris- and Harper-style neo-conservatism in this Liberal stronghold, he might end up hurting the PC campaign here. His best bet might be to repeat what he did in 2003 — lay low and let daddy (in this case John Tory) do the talking for him.

George Pappas is, at the moment, the only person contesting the Green Party nomination; a nomination he will likely win even if someone else opts to challenge him. Pappas finished a distant second (12.2%) to the 12-year incumbent councillor Norm Kelly’s (79%) landslide re-election in the 2006 municipal contest. Even though the margin of defeat was large, it was still a remarkable achievement considering Pappas was the only one of the four candidates to not have a website; a testament to the power of old-fashioned campaign methods. Pappas also has an extensive resume that lists numerous community organizations he has been associated with. As another centre-right candidate that is now typical of the Ontario Greens, he threatens to chip away at his ideological cousins, Phillips and Del Grande. There’s no doubt that some uncritical progressives will also fall for the Green brand and hurt the NDP. Having said that, momentum is with the federal Greens far more than it is with their provincial counterparts. Pappas should feel satisfied if he can win 3% of the vote here; a feat that hasn’t been achieved by the federal Greens in this riding and would be double the best showing of any Ontario Green candidate here.

Yvette Blackburn will be riding a wave of momentum as the NDP has continued to make modest gains here both federally and provincially over the last few elections. Blackburn will be bringing experience from her provincial bid in 2003 where she came in second with 21% of the vote to Liberal incumbent Sandra Pupatello’s comfortable 62.5% victory in Windsor West. Before Blackburn’s run, Windsor West’s provincial electoral results mirrored those of Scarborough–Agincourt (Liberals way ahead of the PC’s with the NDP trailing in third). Blackburn managed to push the NDP into second, no doubt helped by strong organizing as the federal NDP had just won the riding. Blackburn will be transplanting this kind of strong organizing to Scarborough–Agincourt where the local riding association has seen a resurgence and enough fund-raising to open a campaign office for the first time. A wave of campaign literature was already delivered three months before the election, with the $10-minimum-wage issue having the same kind of resonance it did in other Toronto-area ridings that were recently picked up by the NDP in by-elections. A universal dental care plan is also proving popular in this immigrant-majority riding where many are uninsured. Even though Blackburn is the only visible-minority candidate (and only one with a significant history of minority-rights organizing), she will face challenges in getting her message out to the East-Asian communities that dominate here for reasons that are as varied as these communities themselves (generally, the Liberals and PC’s are better funded to make multiple translations of their materials; many new immigrants tend to vote for the status quo in the Liberals; many old- and new-money immigrants support the PCs; many of the less affluent immigrants who would make up Blackburn’s constituency simply don’t vote or don’t have confidence in the NDP’s “winnability”). These challenges create an uphill battle, but if Blackburn can mobilize a “Get Out the Vote” campaign that has worked so well for the NDP elsewhere, she will certainly have the most growth potential and, if she can leave an impression as she did in Windsor, she might be able to push the crest of NDP momentum over the PC’s for second place.

Gerry Phillips’ experience coupled with the local popularity of the Liberal brand will keep a solid foundation of support intact for the incumbent. But with substantive challengers running against him, it looks like all opposition parties will be making more gains at Phillips’ expense than originally anticipated.

Updated prediction:

Liberal: 51% (-10)
PC: 34% (+4)
NDP: 10% (+4)
Green: 3% (+2)

My last prediction didn’t add up to 100 because I didn’t include independent/minor-party candidates.

It appears Tony Ieraci has committed himself to run again for the Family Coalition Party [FCP].

In the last election, Ieraci only finished 16 votes behind the Green Party candidate here, giving the FCP a virtual tie with the Greens at 1.5%.

There is actually much growth potential for the FCP in Scarborough–Agincourt if Ieraci can tap into the significant and diverse constituency of religious conservatives in the riding. Ieraci’s best bet is to learn from the anti-abortion lobbyists who commandeered the CBC’s “Great Canadian Wish List” on Facebook. Getting those people to vote might be more challenging than getting them to flood a Facebook survey, but the FCP has votes to gain if Del Grande (PC) lays low.

Phillips (Liberal) is not known as an ally to the anti-abortion lobby and could lose a few dozen votes to Ieraci unless FCP-sympathizers associate Phillips with his federal Liberal counterpart, Jim Karygiannis, who is adamantly against abortion and same-sex marriage.

Any gains by the FCP will require active campaigning on behalf of Ieraci in order to clearly distinguish himself from the ambiguity of some Liberals and Greens on “family value” issues.

Having said that, the FCP also stands to lose votes if John Del Grande is, or perceived to be, like his father (local municipal councillor Mike Del Grande) who just recently made two public donations to “pro-life” organizations.

Overall, it still looks like the FCP is set to make a small net gain in October.

Updated prediction:

Liberal: 51% (-10)
PC: 34% (+4)
NDP: 10% (+4)
Green: 3% (+1.5)
FCP: 2% (+0.5)

Looks like the Family Coalition Party [FCP] has changed their list of “committed candidates” — it now looks like Wayne Cook will be the FCP candidate in Scarborough–Agincourt, not Tony Ieraci.

Cook has run several times in this riding for all three levels of government:

• federally in 2000 for the Canadian Action Party [CAP] (5th of 6 with 341 votes / 0.9%);

• provincially in 1999 as an Independent (5th of 6 with 371 votes / 1.01%);

• municipally (Ward 39) in 2006 (3rd of 6 with 660 votes / 5.65%)

Cook does make an effort to put up lawn signs and send out campaign literature, so there’s potential that he could give the FCP some visibility in this riding.

At the same time, Cook is somewhat of an enigma. He tends to describe himself as an entrepreneur and yet he ran for the CAP, a party whose anti-globalization/anti-NAFTA and economic nationalism seems at odds with his libertarian spirit. (Perhaps the CAP’s social credit ties appealed to Cook?) Another oddity is that Cook branded his municipal bid as a progressive “anti-racist” campaign against conservative councillor Mike Del Grande (John’s father). It’s not even a year after that “progressive” campaign and Cook’s now running for a “pro-life” and “pro-family” party.

I guess Cook only risks confusing people if the electorate remember who he is. For his own sake, he better hope he’s not remembered or else he’ll only be hurting himself the next time he runs in a municipal election where he’s had the most success. An FCPer versus a conservative isn’t much of a race.

If he likes the political process so much, he should probably just apply to work for one of the Del Grandes. I’m not sure why his stint at the federal Liberal office of Jim Karygiannis didn’t last long; Karygiannis is almost as conservative as the Del Grandes and just as “pro-life” and homophobic.

George Pappas will not be running for the greens anymore.

Wayne Cook ran on Mayor Mel Lastman’s “Team” in the 1997 MegaCity elections, gaining 5,631 votes (16%) in Scarborough - Agincourt. Previously, he ran in Toronto’s Beaches Woodbine, as a Pro-Life Liberal gaining the party 3,516 votes (14.9%) in the 1981 General Election.

Cook is a divorced father of three and co-organizer of Politically Active Dads.

2007 My Election Predictions

Liberal 59% Gerry Phillips
Conservative 25% Mike del Grande
NDP 9% Yvette Blackburn
Greens 3% George Pappas
FCP 3% Wayne Cook
Other 1% Ind. Candidates

Gerry Phillips will easily win 2 to 1, over John Del Grande. The NDP can’t get 1,500 votes in this north Scarborough riding and have no riding association.

The Green Party of Ontario and the Family Coalition Party will make a showing and are both building for the future, if MMP is enacted.

“The NDP can’t get 1,500 votes in this north Scarborough riding and have no riding association.” (Cy Beria)

The NDP got over 2200 votes in the last provincial election and about 5000 in the last federal election. The riding association can be contacted via the federal and provincial websites of the NDP. Yvette Blackburn (who ran in Windsor West and received about 7400 votes for the NDP in 2003) is also opening a campaign office in Scarborough–Agincourt for the upcoming provincial election.

Revised Predictions

Gerry Phillips (Lib.) 55% (easy win 2 to 1)
John Del Grande (PC) 25%
Yvette Blackburn (NDP) 13%
George Pappas (Green) 4-5%
Wayne Cook (Family Coalition) 1-2%
Ind. Candidates 1%

The NDP will put up a real fight, but will not get 15%, as the Greens get 4-5%. The Greens will bleed votes away from the NDP, just as Cook’s Family Coalition will bleed votes away from Del Grande.

Del Grande is a “red Tory” unlike his Reformer father, Mike Del Grande. FCP will make gains, at the expense of the left wing PC Party, under John Tory.

Overall, Phillips is the real winner!

Cy Beria
cyberia@rogers.com

Concerning predictions, it’s a good place to start from the results of the 2003 election:

Liberal: 23,026 / 61.1% (+10.4)
PC: 11,337 / 30.1% (-13.1)
NDP: 2,209 / 5.9% (+2.3)
Green: 566 / 1.5% (+0.3)
FCP: 550 / 1.5% (N/A)

Factors that will affect change:

Province wide polls show all three major opposition parties have made gains on the Liberals. Even with Gerry Phillips’ strong reputation and years of experience, he will be on the defensive this campaign. [LIB- PC+ NDP+ GRN+]

With John Del Grande’s conservative father (Mike) winning re-election as city councillor and publishing literature more regularly than any other representative in this riding (even more than Jim Karygiannis), we should expect some Liberal votes to bleed to the PCs. Name recognition will continue to help Del Grande, too. [LIB- PC+]

As a re-elected school trustee, John Del Grande is the best connected and most well-known PC candidate to run here in recent history. [LIB- PC+]

With the NDP making continuous and steady gains here, coupled with a strong candidate and a more organized campaign than ever before, they should expect to take some votes from the Liberals and also gain support from others who didn’t vote last time. [LIB- NDP+]

Environmental issues have a higher profile this time around. [LIB+/- PC- NDP+/- GRN+ FCP-]

Wayne Cook is an FCP candidate who will actually put up signs and deliver literature. [PC- FCP+]

Proportionately, the referendum on electoral reform should encourage higher turnout from those who support smaller parties. [NDP+ GRN+ FCP+]

Voter turnout in this riding was only 52.9% last time. A closer provincial race this time around should increase turnout for the major parties. [LIB+ PC+ NDP+/- GRN- FCP-]

Redistricting the riding will take some support away from the Liberals and NDP that’s usually stronger south of the 401, although the western addition comes from a Liberal stronghold and is also the neighbourhood of Yvette Blackburn (NDP) who is a well-known teacher in the area. The addition also includes more of Huntingwood Blvd., which is the most conservative residential area in the riding. [LIB+/- PC+ NDP+/-]

The campaign itself is, of course, one of the biggest unknown variables that could cause a significant and unexpected shift in results.

Party expectations:

Barring something hugely unexpected during the campaign, we can use the factors above to gauge a range of results that would be considered a success or a disappointment for each party:

Liberal
Success: Maintaining anything over 60%
Disappoinment: Dropping below 50%

PC
Success: Breaking 40%
Disappoinment: Dropping below 30%

NDP
Success: Breaking 10%
Disappoinment: Dropping below 6%

Green
Success: Doubling to 3%
Disappoinment: Dropping below 1.5%

FCP
Success: Breaking 2%
Disappoinment: Dropping below 1%

Revised prediction:

Expecting voter turnout to increase to somewhere around 55% (40,000), I would expect the following results if an election were held today, before effects of the campaign are considered:

Liberal: 21,600 / 54% (-7)
PC: 13,200 / 33% (+3)
NDP: 3,600 / 9% (+3)
Green: 1,000 / 2.5% (+1)
FCP: 600 / 1.5% (–)

Shifting from predictions to issues:

The social science of predicting who will win is something that probably gets more attention than it deserves. It tends to reduce politics to a horse race at the expense of the issues that concern most citizens. This is to the detriment of candidates/parties who (whether they win or lose) have the best policies to meet these concerns.

Now that the campaign has officially started, I will be less concerned with what the result will be in this riding (fairly predictable) and more concerned with who has the best policies for all the people of Scarborough–Agincourt (including the 33,000 who don’t vote and the 39,000 who can’t vote). It would be interesting to see what is concerning local residents the most these days.

FCP has a new candidate in Scarborough-Agincourt, unlikely that FCP will do better than 1% (or less). Del Grande has started a mini sign was with Phillips, which is looking like a two-way fight. Phillips may be in for a fight, if the NDP take away votes. Green still a problem for the NDP, as Greens may get 5%.

It is interesting that Karygiannis, who endorsed Mike Del Grande (John’s father) is now helping Gerry Phillips. If John Del Grande wins on October 10th, then Karygiannis will be responsible for the new Del Grande control over Scarborough-Agincourt.

Next year is Karygiannis’ 20th years….time for early retirement?

I think the “sign wars” are a poor (i.e. superficial) indicator of support in this riding. Signs almost always look even between the incumbent and the main challenger. Even with all his signs, John Wong was severely defeated by Mike Del Grande in the municipal election. Same goes for Karygiannis over the Conservatives. It likely won’t be any different with Phillips coming out on top of John Del Grande in this provincial race. A “two-way fight” here would be the PC’s coming within 10 points of the Liberals.

If New Democrats continue to make gains here, they will likely be more successful at building support from new voters that didn’t vote last time (turnout is very low here) than they will be at taking votes away from very partisan Liberals.

Green issues that are receiving a lot of attention across the province do not translate into Green votes as much as they do elsewhere. Being ground zero for SARS in addition to providing few local opportunities for youth and new immigrants make health-care and employment concerns higher priorities. Because Liberal branding makes a lot of constituents think they sincerely care about these issues, a lot of NDP and Green support is absorbed by the Liberals. Of decided voters, the Liberals are a much greater threat to the NDP’s fortunes than are the Greens. The Greens might compete with the NDP for some undecided voters, otherwise they’re more likely to take votes away from “green” Liberals and Conservatives.

Those familiar with Karygiannis’ record are not surprised that he endorsed Mike Del Grande who is even more conservative than his son, John. That’s because Karygiannis is one of the most conservative MPs in the Liberal caucus and risks little damage when party labels are hardly noticeable in municipal politics. Karygiannis is supporting Phillips in the provincial race because the Liberal brand is extremely important in getting re-elected here. Ideologically, Phillips, Karygiannis, and the Del Grandes are not all that far apart. What’s interesting is not the collaboration between them but rather the reasons why constituents think they’re voting for candidates who are far less “progressive” than they make themselves out to be.

FCP update

After rotating between a few potential candidates, it seems the Family Coalition Party has finally settled with Max Wang. If he’s able to get out his message as Wayne Cook would have done, then he stands a good chance at gaining a few dozen extra votes for his party, maybe more. To appeal to a broader electorate, he’s made a wise move to make no mention of the FCP’s anti-access-to-abortion and anti-equal-marriage stances.

Here is Max Wang’s bio from the FCP website:

[Max Wang] immigrated to Canada in 2000 with his wife of 15 years, Isabel. They have two daughters Julia, eight, and Theresa, four.

Max believes that the Family Coalition Party policies and reforms will resonate with other immigrants like himself, who came to Canada to provide their families with greater opportunities and freedoms.

Issues

Wang raises issues concerning:

-immigration
-housing
-economy, employment, freedom, opportunity
-class (labour vs. professional jobs)
-education (recognizing foreign credentials)
-family

Do these issues resonate with anyone else? What other issues are people concerned about? What would you want done in each case? Which candidate most closely shares your vision?

Come on PAPPAS pain the town green. Pappas for president!

Gerry Phillips will win 1.75 votes for every 1 for John Delgrande. Blackburn will only get 10% of the vote cast. Gerry Phillips having the support of Jim Karygiannis will definately sweep the riding.

Race will be a squeaker in any event. 46-45

FINAL CANDIDATE & PARTY ANALYSIS

In ascending order:

5. Max Wang, Family Coalition

Is this guy for real? Read his profile in the Toronto Star to confirm that I’m not making this up. His solution to everything is radical capitalism and rigid social controls. Only men and woman can get married in Wang’s Canada that’s “loyal to God, Family and country.” Add a splash of patriarchy and paternalism to Wang’s hetero-normative and god-fearing society so that women no longer have any say in matters that concern their own reproductive health – such choices are to be made by the state. Sound a little authoritarian? Don’t worry; you can be free if you’re a straight man who trusts the invisible hand of the free market to solve all of society’s problems. Privatize healthcare and education. Deregulate labour standards so that manufacturing jobs can race to the bottom and finally make products as toxically cheap as China. Wang also tries to paint the local population with one brush by saying “many Chinese support the vision of a free enterprise economy.” Undoubtedly some do, but fortunately there are also a great number of progressive residents (Chinese and otherwise) who do not endorse Wang’s socially regressive and economically fundamentalist vision. Sadly, pro-MMP supporters like Wang make great fodder for anti-MMP journalists like Ian Urquhart.

4. John Del Grande, Progressive Conservative

Who is John Del Grande? As the son of a right-wing city councillor in this riding, John is known as Mike-lite. When he’s not reproducing his father’s rhetoric in his campaign literature, he relies on John Tory’s “leadership credibility” to appeal to the electorate. As a school trustee, many expected John to know the system well enough to distance himself from Tory’s proposal to publicly fund private faith-based schools, but he defended his leader instead. Add more private-for-profit healthcare, garbage incinerators, and more nuclear power and you’ve got a PC candidate ready to go against the grain on matters of education, health, the environment and energy. Not exactly a good formula for success. On the bright side for the Del Grandes, John will keep his job as trustee and Mike will still be councillor even if/when Tory loses his own seat and the election.

3. Gerry Phillips, Liberal

After twenty years at this game, Phillips is too predictable. Campaign like you care and then quietly go about your business (for big business) once elected. Endorsements from his federal Liberal counterpart (Jim Karygiannis) help divert attention away from the deterioration of Canada’s largest urban hospital. Laying low and counting on the Tories to self-destruct also keeps attention off the important issues – income disparity, poor part-time jobs, lack of opportunity for youth and new immigrants, increasingly inaccessible postsecondary education, … (insert your issues here).

2. George Pappas, Green

Like his federal Green counterpart (Casey Maple), Pappas is a self-described supporter of the Liberal incumbent; a trend that fits nicely with the Liberal-Green alliance popularized by Dion and May. This cozy relationship works well to keep the NDP at bay, just like in Central Nova, since some disgruntled Liberals and Conservatives will park their vote with Pappas instead of the next most viable challenger. The only significant difference between this Green candidate and the Liberal one is that Pappas is critical of Phillips’ handling of local hospital problems. Beyond that, it’s sad to see eco-capitalism’s triumph over the more democratic and grassroots movement that earlier Greens represented.

1. Yvette Blackburn, NDP

I’ve voted against the NDP before and by no means am a card-carrying member of any party. But now that Bob Rae has finally defected to a party that suits his ideology, the Ontario NDP can get on with a progressive agenda. We’re no longer in a continent-wide recession as we were fifteen years ago; Canadian investors are enjoying prosperous economic times although the prosperity isn’t being invested in the ways most citizens want. The hospital fiasco is but one local example where the voice of the community is being shut out. Some economic democracy is desperately needed. Without a voice in the economy, Ontarians were forced to fundraise half-a-billion dollars last year for school essentials that the province should be paying for. As a teacher in the community, Yvette Blackburn is intimately aware of these issues and knows the school funding formula has to be fixed and hospitals need reinvestment so that skilled professionals can focus on their jobs instead of selling chocolate bars or cancelling surgeries because of unsafe operating rooms. Even the usually Liberal Toronto Star has taken notice and admits “only [the] NDP offers hope for Toronto” (Royson James, October 5, 2007). This time around, Yvette Blackburn and the NDP have earned the support of Scarborough—Agincourt. If residents want to take an active role in local politics, they can count on Blackburn to actually listen and take a stand on issues that have been falling on deaf ears for decades.

FINAL PREDICTION

I originally thought voter turnout was going to be higher because of the referendum and growing momentum against the Liberals. But after the Tories self-destructed on the campaign trail, I’m not so sure anymore. It’s now quite possible that turnout will be about the same as before (52.9%) or even lower. A poor education campaign on electoral reform means MMP will probably lose out to the status quo by a 60-40 ratio, possibly even more in this riding.

I also thought John Del Grande had more growth potential because of his incumbency as a local school trustee and his father’s name recognition. But John Tory’s debacle on the education issue has hurt the chances of his fellow PC candidates. Depending on who goes out to vote, Del Grande could stagnate at 30% or drop even lower. But there’s still a good chance that he can make some gains in what’s become an uphill campaign, albeit not as large as originally anticipated before Tory blew his party’s chances.

Gerry Phillips will take a little knock during this election, but nothing serious. Given the Liberal record, it could be and probably should be a lot worse. By laying low, Phillips and McGuinty have allowed the PCs to make the Liberals look “not-so-bad,” even forgivable to some. With enough PC supporters staying home or even defecting to the Liberals, there’s an outside chance Phillips might even stay above 60%.

George Pappas will be counting on the popularity of Green branding to deliver increased support. Some word-of-mouth endorsements in addition to protest votes might push Pappas above 3% which would more than double Green support from the last election. This would be quite an accomplishment in a riding where the Greens appear to be non-existent.

Max Wang might marginally increase the FCP tally if people take notice of his pro-MMP message. Then again, he could also lose some votes if the socially conservative families who normally support him find out they’re not as extremely right-wing as Wang on economic issues. The difference will probably be negligible in the end.

After greatly improving the NDP’s fortunes in Windsor (2003), Yvette Blackburn has transplanted her organizing skills to Scarborough—Agincourt in what is probably the strongest campaign the NDP has ever run in this riding. Seeing NDP signs in some of the riding’s most conservative neighbourhoods is a testament to her broad and growing appeal. But will a strong candidate running an organized campaign make much difference in a riding where so few actually vote? The NDP’s fortunes depend on getting-out-the-vote (GOTV), and that machine takes more than one campaign to build. If the GOTV machine isn’t up and running, the NDP might not break 10%. On the other hand, if Blackburn is ahead of the game, 10% might be underestimating her.

By the numbers

Rounding to the nearest 500, here’s my final prediction:

Voter turnout: 38,500 / 53%

Referendum: 60-40 against MMP

Liberal: 21,000 / 55% (-6)
PC: 12,000 / 31% (+1)
NDP: 4,000 / 10% (+4)
Green: 1,000 / 2.5% (+1)
FCP: 500 / 1.5% (n/c)

ELECTION RESULTS

By the numbers

Rounding to the nearest half-percentile, here are the unofficial results with all polls reporting:

Voter turnout: 33,636 / 45.5% (-7.5)

Referendum: 19,185-12,881 / 60-40 against MMP

Liberal: 19,447 / 58% (-3)
PC: 8,495 / 25.5% (-4.5)
NDP: 3,589 / 10.5% (+4.5)
Green: 1,533 / 4.5% (+3)
FCP: 572 / 1.5% (n/c)

Post-election analysis

Even though it was predicted that voter turnout would likely be lower, such a significant drop was the most significant surprise.

It looks like some PC voters stayed home because of the media’s focus on John Tory’s proposal to publicly fund private faith-based schools; predictions that such an unpopular proposal would lead to another Liberal majority government probably didn’t motivate Conservatives, either. Core supporters of the Del Grande dynasty couldn’t capitalize on John’s incumbency as a school trustee or make gains based on the name recognition from his father’s position as a local city councillor.

Wanting to protest the Liberals, but unable to park their votes with the PCs, some Conservatives went to other parties, most significantly helping the Greens triple their vote. By retaining other votes that might have gone back to the Liberals, the Greens achieved their best result in Scarborough—Agincourt and are now on the map in the riding and looking to continue to grow in the future.

In spite of taking a little knock from the Greens and NDP, the Liberals survived an assault from all angles, most successfully fending off the Conservatives. Gerry Phillips was comfortably re-elected, albeit with an organized opposition to his right and growing resistance on his left flank.

The NDP’s continued provincial recovery was undoubtedly bolstered by Yvette Blackburn’s strong and organized campaign. New Democrats have now made the biggest and most consistent gains in Scarborough—Agincourt over the last few elections. Breaking the 10% threshold after gaining from the Liberals and holding off losses to the Greens are important accomplishments for the NDP. A solid foundation is now in place in this riding to continue growth on both the provincial and federal levels.

In spite of low voter turnout, the FCP did well to hold on to its core support. Beyond this achievement, the FCP looks like a stagnant force in Scarborough—Agincourt.

As predicted, the referendum for MMP electoral reform lost by a 60-40 margin.

Interestingly, in a parallel student vote, all local schools voted in favour of MMP (53-47). The Liberals (45%) and PCs (16%) fared worse in the student vote while the NDP (21.5%), Greens (14%), and FCP (4%) all fared better than they did in the official election. A more progressive future looks to be on the horizon if Scarborough—Agincourt’s young citizens remain in the riding and keep voting after graduation.

Simon,

Thank you for your references to Social Credit, which deserves an introduction.

Social Credit, economic plan in Canada, based on the theories of Clifford Hugh Douglas. The central idea is that the problems fundamental to economic depression are those of unequal distribution owing to lack of purchasing power.

To solve these difficulties Douglas proposed a system of issuing to every citizen dividends, the amount of which would be determined by an estimate of the nation’s real wealth; the establishment of a just price for all goods would be the result. The program became highly influential in Alberta during the depression years, and the Social Credit party, led by William Aberhart, won a resounding victory in the provincial elections of 1935.

The program included distribution of a social dividend of $25 a month, but it proved impossible to put this scheme into practice. Attempts to tax banks and to enter on currency schemes were declared unconstitutional by the courts.

Nevertheless, the party remained in power in Alberta until defeated in 1971.

In the federal parliament, the party held 30 seats (26 from Quebec and 4 seats from Western Canada) in the 1960’s and retained 6 seats until 1980, when it lost them all; when Socreds acted on principle and brought down the short-lived Joe Clark government. Socreds opposed and 18 cent per gallon gas tax, abstained from a confidence vote, forcing the Clark government to campaign on a platform of tax increases.

The Social Credit party that continues in British Columbia diverged from the doctrines of the original party early on. The B.C. Social Credit Party formed the government in British Columbia, under W.A.C. Bennett and Bill Bennett.

Canada’s first female Prime Minister, The Rt. Hon. Kim Campbell was a Social Credit MLA from British Columbia.

Socreds in Quebec are active in the Michael Journal.

Social Credit Parties exist in Australia, New Zealand and in the U.K.

Wayne Cook
Leader
Social Credit Party of Canada /
Parti Social Credit du Canada