Seat Projections | DemocraticSPACE

WANT TO ADVERTISE HERE? INFO | CONTACT US
<br />

HOW IT WORKS
The unique DemocraticSPACE regional projection model makes estimates of support based on aggregate poll data, making it the most detailed projection available. While the model has averaged a 94% accuracy in allocating votes, it is important to recognize that many ridings are too close for projection models to accurately project. For a detailed explanation of how the model works, please click HERE (146kb PDF).

BASED ON ROLLING 5-POLL AVERAGE

DATE ¹
FINAL		65	29	13	0
4 OCT 07		64	31	12	0
30 SEP 07		63	32	12	0
27 SEP 07		60	35	12	0
24 SEP 07		59	36	12	0
23 SEP 07		56	39	12	0
18 SEP 07		55	40	12	0
16 SEP 07		56	39	12	0
14 SEP 07		56	39	12	0
10 SEP 07		58	37	12	0
9 SEP 07		57	38	12	0
8 SEP 07		55	40	12	0
1 SEP 07 ²		54	42	11	0
26 AUG 07 ²		54	42	11	0
16 AUG 07 ²		51	45	11	0
14 AUG 07 ²		50	46	11	0
30 JUN 07 ²		44	52	11	0
28 JUN 07 ²		45	50	12	0
10 JUN 07 ²		45	50	12	0
15 MAY 07 ²		45	50	12	0
3 APR 07 ²		46	49	12	0
15 FEB 07 ²		53	42	12	0
12 OCT 06 ²		54	42	11	0
23 JUL 06 ²		51	46	10	0
23 JUN 06 ²		44	53	10	0
2 JUN 06 ²		50	47	10	0
2 OCT 03	2003 ELECTION	72	24	7	0

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several weeks until their release date.
² These updates are “straight-line” projections, not accounting for regional variation or candidates. Readers should use caution when interpreting these results.