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HOW IT WORKS
The unique DemocraticSPACE regional projection model makes estimates of support based on aggregate poll data, making it the most detailed projection available. While the model has averaged a 94% accuracy in allocating votes, it is important to recognize that many ridings are too close for projection models to accurately project. For a detailed explanation of how the model works, please click HERE (146kb PDF).
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DATE 1
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| FINAL | 65 | 29 | 13 | 0 | |
| 4 OCT 07 | 64 | 31 | 12 | 0 | |
| 30 SEP 07 | 63 | 32 | 12 | 0 | |
| 27 SEP 07 | 60 | 35 | 12 | 0 | |
| 24 SEP 07 | 59 | 36 | 12 | 0 | |
| 23 SEP 07 | 56 | 39 | 12 | 0 | |
| 18 SEP 07 | 55 | 40 | 12 | 0 | |
| 16 SEP 07 | 56 | 39 | 12 | 0 | |
| 14 SEP 07 | 56 | 39 | 12 | 0 | |
| 10 SEP 07 | 58 | 37 | 12 | 0 | |
| 9 SEP 07 | 57 | 38 | 12 | 0 | |
| 8 SEP 07 | 55 | 40 | 12 | 0 | |
| 1 SEP 07 2 | 54 | 42 | 11 | 0 | |
| 26 AUG 07 2 | 54 | 42 | 11 | 0 | |
| 16 AUG 07 2 | 51 | 45 | 11 | 0 | |
| 14 AUG 07 2 | 50 | 46 | 11 | 0 | |
| 30 JUN 07 2 | 44 | 52 | 11 | 0 | |
| 28 JUN 07 2 | 45 | 50 | 12 | 0 | |
| 10 JUN 07 2 | 45 | 50 | 12 | 0 | |
| 15 MAY 07 2 | 45 | 50 | 12 | 0 | |
| 3 APR 07 2 | 46 | 49 | 12 | 0 | |
| 15 FEB 07 2 | 53 | 42 | 12 | 0 | |
| 12 OCT 06 2 | 54 | 42 | 11 | 0 | |
| 23 JUL 06 2 | 51 | 46 | 10 | 0 | |
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44
|
53
|
10
|
0
|
||
|
2 JUN 06 2
|
50
|
47
|
10
|
0
|
|
| 2003 ELECTION |
72
|
24
|
7
|
0
|

NOTES
1 Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several weeks until their release date.
2 These updates are “straight-line” projections, not accounting for regional variation or candidates. Readers should use caution when interpreting these results.
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