This riding is very safe for Michael Bryant. Given that “star candidate” Peter Kent got only 25% of the vote in 2006 (just behind Paul Summerville who got more votes than any other New Democrat to run in the riding), I think the Liberals are unbeatable here. And David Miller beat John Tory in St. Paul’s by a very comfortable margin in 2003.

There is a large Jewish community in St. Paul’s and it is more progressive than their counterparts further north. Given that Jewish Canadians tend to be very much small-l politically I just can’t see it going Tory. The claims that the Liberals aren’t sufficiently pro-Israel (federally) or the call for funding for religious schools didn’t reasonate among most Jews, esp. in St. Paul’s.

I think someone needs to tell the Lillyann Goldstein team that ’size doesn’t matter’. Those giant lawnsigns of her’s are an eyesore.

Please note this comment is in a series of comments by me. I’m doing a prediction for every riding. For this riding I’m predicting the Liberals will win.

I have Jewish friends and family in this riding and they aren’t about to throw all of their political beliefs away just for a chance to get faith-based funding (especially since the chance is now zero). This will stay Liberal 100%. Especially when you look at that Bryant is supported by Dr. Carolyn Bennett - who dominated her own election in St. Paul’s federally, while the PC candidate is supported by Peter Kent who as a “star candidate” did poorly in the riding.

LTJ is right. And it seems a lot of lawns that had small Goldstein signs had them replaced with large ones. One house on my street actually got two giant PC signs and strategically place them boxed around a small Liberal sign on their neighbours’ lawn to block its view from approaching cars. It’s pretty funny.

I haven’t been everywhere in the riding, but it looks to me that Goldstein has a small lead in terms of signs in Forest Hill and Julian Heller has got quite a few sign sign up in the western portion of the riding. But Hellyer is virtually invisible in Forest Hill and Goldstein has only a few signs in the poorer Western part of the riding. Bryant has lawn signs everywhere. I think he’ll get the win again.

Certainly most of the non-signed houses (the vast majority) were hidden Liberal voters. Obviously Tories and Dippers alike tend to be more enthusiastic about their choice.

Andrew is right about the silliness of the idea of Jews voting as a bloc over religious schools. Bryant won this riding handily as the St. Paul Jewish community is outside of the “Asper Tory” orbit. It is really the Orthodox Jews who are a small minority of the Jews in Toronto and is heavily concentrated in a few areas that are most enthusiastic about it - and they’re in Eglinton-Lawrence (where the Libs won) and Thornhill (which Peter Shurman narrowly took). Willowdale also has a big Jewish vote (but few Orthodox) but the Tories actually lost ground there.