This is a very safe riding for the NDP. The WASP/Jewish intelligentsia continues to grow and they vote overwhelmingly NDP. The Portuguese population has stabilized or is in decline and they’re big Liberal voters. Things are getting better and better for the NDP here. Easy victory for Rosario.

Rosario has an advantage, regardless of party affiliation, because he’s Rosario - he’s been there for a good long while, and has built up a reservoir of goodwill in Trin-Spad.

That said, I would still call this as “too close to call”. I think there are opportunities for both of the other parties to make gains (though obviously they are starting from different places), or Rosario & the NDP could pull further ahead - again, too soon to tell.

On Wednesday, 11 April, the Ontario PC Party nominated Tyler Currie as the PC candidate. More news to come. From Arnold Kwok, President, Trinity-Spadina Provincial PC Association

too bad the revelation that rosario had an all expenses paid trip to a ski resort to learn as he says “french democracy” seems to show there is a very dark side to this ndp candidate.Its time for a change the NDP have taken advantage of the citizens of trinity spadina.Too bad the citizens of the area never see him in inaction.Its time that the citizens vote in trinity spadina, too many stay home because they are just fed up with the ndp and feel powerless to fight the illegal voter onslaught.

Environmental activist and former Green Party of Canada executive member Kate Holloway is now the Liberal candidate for Trinity-Spadina.

Kate was a major supporter of Elizabeth May and was re-elected to the Green Party of Canada’s Council before she resigned late last year to join the Liberal Party.

For the press release, see

http://section15.blogspot.com/2007/08/kate-holloway-to-run-for-liberals-in.html

Is that the same george sawision who finished second in the city council election for half this riding? I ran and finished third in the same ward. Unfortunatly I have to disagree with him here, I really dont see the NDP has screwed up badly enough. The Liberals would really need to come out swinging to beat the NDP here but going so strong against a party so weak risks gaining the NDP more votes then it loses, as people start to see the NDP as a “real” alternative. Marchese wil hold this rding, which is a shame, as the only two times I tried to get any help from his office I was blown off. I have not decided how I will vote (I live in this riding), but I know it wont be NDP

I like Rosario but I think it is foolish to call Trinity Spadina a safe riding provincially or federally. Rosario won by about 6,000 votes in the last election. In a riding of 80,000 plus voters that isn’t a sure thing. TS fluctuates in population. I think Rosario has a strong chance of keeping the riding because Tyler Currie isn’t strong enough as a candidate, and I think Dan King can cause problems for Kate. The Greens have a good platform, environmental issues are on people’s mind, the Greens are on the right side of the education funding debate, and both conservatives and liberals have terrible track records. (and leaders I might add). I’m Green so I’ll be supporting Dan but Rosario needs to be out there as usual. I saw the Goldhawk show and they all looked uncomfortable out of the gate and Rosario looked tired with nothing fresh to add. This may go against him when Kate and Dan start to pick up steam. I’m one of the organizers of the debate on child poverty on Wednesday the 19th at Factory Theatre (125 Bathurst at Adelaide) at 7:00 pm. and we’ll see how they do when forced to deal with a single issue for two hours.

Rosario will hold this riding easily…the riding is a sea of orange. I’ve only seen two Liberal signs and it looks like the Liberals aren’t putting any resources into no-hope ridings like this one.

Re. This:

“Its time for a change the NDP have taken advantage of the citizens of trinity spadina”

You’d think it was the NDP that was in power at Queen’s Park and therefore to blame for…?

the only things the ndp (today, not the same old “Scary Rae days” rants that i’m sure will follow this comment) can be blamed for is pressuring the McGutless liberals to raise the minimum wage, provide dental coverage to those who can’t afford it, cap property assessments that are hurting seniors, raise social assistance rates, provide autism treatment to those who need it, as well as stable ESL & special education in-class resources, re-vamping the condo act so that it protects condo-owners & not developers, introducing “Right-To-Know” legislation to make clear what chemicals are in the air we breathe and the food we eat, capping or even reducing tuition fees & providing cities with the fiscal tools they need on an ongoing basis, rather than bail-outs, so that the cities don’t have to keep raising property & business taxes & shutting down services.
These are “dark” ideas? If so, i’m turning out the lights & voting NDP. I did think about supporting this Sawision person, just because i think running as an independent takes guts, but after reading that rant, better to stick with the “devil” i know….

Update: Rosario will win by his biggest margin ever. The Liberals are INVISIBLE here. I have been all over the riding and have literally seen about 10 Liberal signs! Whatever the floor of Liberal support is in Trinity-Spadina - around 25% or so I would guess - that is what Kate Holloway will get. It is highly likely Rosario get close to 60% of the vote.

Believe it or not, some people don’t know the difference between levels of government and the responsabilities attached to them. In some parts of Toronto, and in Trinity-Spadina, if the garbage isn’t taken away, cracks in the road aren’t fixed, more than three city crew workers stand around smoking for a few minutes, etc….the blame is laid at the feet of any and every incumbent politician. If people’s property taxes are high or a renovation wasn’t approved, it doesn’t matter if a politician is at the federal, provincial or municipal level..they are all to blame.
And right now the perception is that the city is being run by the NDP and therefore THEY (NDP) are ALL the same and all to blame! So Rosario’s margin may not be that huge because there is a a lot of anger out there (these same people don’t seem to have heard about provincial downloading to the city & what that did to the city’s finances).
If anything, i expect less voter-turn-out.
There are also thousands of new residents in the southern part of the riding that may not know the riding’s history and assume that trinity-spadina is another two-horse race like most of the rest of the province (one choice: Grit or Tory). The upside for the Liberal and Conservative candidates is that they don’t even have to canvass the new residents, all they gotta do put their names on a ballot and automatically get the votes. NDP campaigns always work twice as hard to get half the votes that others get for that reason, so i don’t think Rosario & his team can be complacent. Nor do i think they are. So far i’ve only seen NDP flyers..several times.

Please note this comment is in a series of comments by me. I’m doing a prediction for every riding. For this riding I’m predicting the NDP will win.

I wish Rosario Marchese told everybody that he hasn’t lived in the riding since five years ago.I think it’s important to live in the riding when you want to represent the local issues.

Good luck to Tyler Currie in winning this riding. It’s good to see a young candidate, especially in a riding with so many young consituents - both students and condo dwellers. Marchese has proven that he only rides on the coattails of the NDP in this stronghold and continues to provide no voice for his riding. Holloway will be hurt by moving from the Greens and not knowing her own platform well enough to hold her own during the debates.