The Tories have nominated a wonderful candidate in Pina Martino. This lady embodies integrity, accountability, and decency. She is an excellent candidate. Unlike previous PC candidates, this lady is out talking to people and dealing with issues. I have had the chance to meet her and am thoroughly impressed. She has my vote. Listen up Dalton… we are tired of your string of broken promises and your arrogance.

This is way too close to call, it is NDP right now after the by-election and the NDP might keep it, but the Liberals are also strong here too. With all that said the PC’s might tip the balance. This will be a close three-way race.

I almost fell out of my chair when someone said the PC’s have a chance here. They must be dreaming. Since it is the same candidate as the by-election, i cant see the PC’s doing too much better. Ill say (Optimistically) they will probably win a similar share to 03, or maybe a bit bigger but still, a distant 3rd. The PC’s will pull the votes away from the Liberals, ensuring a more comfortable Paul Ferreira victory, cause im pretty sure hes going to win this anyways by about 2500 votes.

I expect that Ferreira will be able to hold on to this one. If the PC’s gain a little traction it;ll be at the expense of the Liberals, allowing the Dippers to increase their margin to 1000 votes or so. Still close, but Ferreira should pull it off.

Ferreira has the incumbent advantage now. NDP will hold.

Paul’s long standing relationship with the community organization ACORN will definitely work in his favour. ACORN’s membership is known in the community as hard workers around progressive issues.

Does anyone know of any upcoming candidate debates?

Thanks!

Laura Albanese is my choice. I think the community will rally around her this time. Paul at the NDP is like a broken record… Lanny, there is a candidates debate tomorrow nite Mon. Oct. 1st at Chaminade School

There are five debates in the riding. Albanese has already skipped one on education. She is skipping three more this week: Tuesday at 720 Trethewey on housing issues; Wednesday at Mount Dennis Legion; Thursday at St. John the Evangelist School in Weston. Her campaign refused to attend these. What’s she hiding from? I think Ferreira will be re-elected.

Maybe its because these debates are a waste of time actually. Each party brings their own people, and there is never any public at large to convince. There are no votes to be had there, the communities don’t seem to go and care. I was at last night’s meeting and there was only two undecided voters at the beginning of the debate.

Good point about the debates. Attended the one last night. I recall the The NDP candidate, to make a point, i guess, about the importance of debates asked: how many undecided voters are in the room? Your right, TWO people put up their hands! i thought to myself the candidates should draw straws for the two votes and then get their butts out to meet voters where they live! I spoke to one local resident who didn’t even stay for the whole debate. He put it like this: the camps just fill up the room with supporters who are not even from the area. They either line up at the mic or try to get on the question list first — most he said are supporters who don’t even live in the riding. He said look around: I see maybe a handful who even have kids that attend the school. He said it’s all about oneupmanship. BTW, I thought the Liberal candidate said it well: she wants to meet people at the door and on their streets and let voters talk one to one with candidates. In the time that debate took, a candidate could cover almost 10 blocks i will bet and talk to many voters — especially seniors, single moms and dads, who can’t make all candidates debates. From a strategic standpoint, candidates will get to more voters while the others spend his time talking to basically their own campaign supporters. A friend who lives in Leaside said she attended the Wynne -Tory debate on Sunday. She said the entire audience was pretty much campaign supporters from all sides. The residents, many who did not arrive unitl a few minutes before the debate, had to stand at the back of the room. However, I did learn one thing last night. Apparently all the NDP MPPs are taking the pay raise. I understand they had the option of not taking it, but they did. Apparenlty they are giving it to charity? Ok, so public money is being used to influence local groups, which is not that far from buying votes. But either way they are benefiting. Bit of a surpirse. Also, the Liberal candidate said something about Howard Hampton getting a retirment bonous of around $500,000???!!! I googled it this morning. Toronto Star story says he got it a few years back as part of some kind of pension adjustment. Nice, if you can get it! No wonder that did not make it into the NDP ads. Good research by the LIberals. Maybe the big winner last night was the PC candidate who did not show up. Now she was smart: she was out getting votes and no doubt telling voters that she now is NOT in favour of funding for private, relgious schools, since here leader has “released” the candidates from this policy position with “free vote”. So much for the education needs of the 50,000 kids and parents, which was the point of the the PC policy in the first place. The “free vote” is October 10th.

The PC Candidate is a no show not only at the debates but in the riding as a whole. Don’t know of anyone that has met her, don’t think she even has a campaign office set up in our riding. Seems like a phantom candidate.

Well it looks like I got the message a little late.

I for one value the opportunity to witness a candidate debate (that’s why I asked). I don’t necessarily care how many undecided voters are there or not there. If other potential voters choose not to go, that’s of no difference to me.

I have to say that it is pretty disappointing to hear that Mrs. Albanese has decided not to make herself available at other debates. It does suggest that she is avoiding something. And although I appreciate a visit at my door, I am really hearing only one side of the issue. I want to see how the candidates stack up to each other, and it seems like I’ve missed my opportunity to see Laura compete.

Let’s not downplay the value of a debate gentlemen. Strike one against the liberals in my book.

As for the pay raise issue Sandford, it’s awefully cynical to suggest that the only purpose for donating their portion of the pay raise to charities was to influence local groups. I for one remember that the NDP was the only party that did NOT vote for the pay raise.

As for Mr. Hampton’s bonus that you mentioned, I would appreciate a link to that story. Since I missed the debate, its something that I’d like to know more about. I also googled this, but the only Toronto Star article on the subject was simply quoting Liberal campaign manager Ben Chin. He’s not exactly the most unbiased voice on the issue. I hope that’s not the story you were referring to. It was actually an article on campaign attack ads, which isn’t the way you presented it.

Still undecided…
Lanny

Sure here is some links and a bit of good old fashion research, because you got me interested in the topic of Hampton’s pension payout.

* http://www.ontla.on.ca/house-proceedings/transcripts/files_pdf/2006-12-14_pdfL137.pdf
* http://www.thestar.com/printArticle/160677
* http://www.torontosun.com/News/Columnists/Blizzard_Christina/2006/12/17/2841441-sun.html

The House proceedings link has a rather interesting exchange between George Smitherman and Howard Hampton on the pay increase issue in 2006. Here is Smitherman’s statement. Take a look at the link (page 6971 of Hansard) and notice there is no Hampton rebuttal or point of privilege, objection , etc in response to the following statement.

“The honourable member started his question by saying, “I have received.” Oh yes, indeed he has received. Let’s go back to the story about what he received: “Pensions All in the Family.
“‘It was a very rich buyout,’ Hampton, MPP for Rainy River, said at Queen’s Park yesterday….
“Hampton confirmed receiving $500,000, before tax, as his share of the $109-million bill to abolish the gold-plated … pension plan.”
The member beside him to his right received $200,000. In relatively the same period of time in this Legislature, the member for Niagara Centre received a payout of $200,000. In the same period of service, relatively speaking, I have received for my pensionable time $39,000.
This is the kind of outrage that comes manufactured on their basis. I encourage them to stand in their place today and make the firm commitment that they seem to be suggesting, which is that they will opt out, if that is the principle upon which they’re prepared to stand.”

Now, good researchers will track that media story and find it was written by the Jeff Harder, Toronto Sun, 1997. I have the PDF file. If you want a copy of the media clipping, send me your email coordinates and I will send you the PDF file. Back then the Harris government (surprise, surprise) dissolved the “gold plated” MPP pension program in favour of a less generous one. Long standing members got a one time payout. The media story with headline: “NDP leader, wife got $1million total: Pensions all in the family” details how Hampton and his wife Shelley (there’s a new fact) received a million dollar payout. In that story, Hampton is quoted; “It was a very rich buyout.” He goes on to say “I thought that the pension issue could have been dealt with without such a rich buyout.” Yes, well I am sure ignorance is bliss.

A cool million for Hampton and his wife! This is more than most people make in a life time! No wonder Howard can put the other NDP MPPs into this situation. He doesn’t need the cash.

Cynical about how the NDP MPPs use the pay increase they are all taking? Why take the pay increase at all? Surely that’s the point. They had an option not to take it. But they did. Some say they are giving parts of it to charity. All of them? Is there a list? For all of them? Did they get tax receipts? How did and will they decide which groups get it and which don’t? Mark my words, the day will come when the NDP MPPs will make a deal to change the rules so they can take can pocket it all and forget this so called charity thing. Either the Liberals and PC’s will let them off the hook, just like the Liberals did when they changed the rules to give the NDP official party status after they failed to win enough seats in the 2003 election. Let’s face it, the only reason the NDP they are saying they will roll back the increase is because there is no chance they will form a government.

Hi Sandford.

Thanks for the research. I really appreciate it.

Do you know of any list that spells out all MPP’s that received the pension buy-out and how much they would have earned? I can’t imagine that the NDP members would have been the only ones to benefit from this.

Also, are you afiliated with any party in this election?

Thanks!

Oh I am sure lots of others did too, PC’s Liberals and NDP. As I said, the pension payout was given to long standing MPPs at the time. But we were talking about Howard Hampton. You will have to do your own research if you want to know about the others. I believe the Bill that enacted the pension legislation at the time was Bill 27. Suggest Legislative Assembly of Ontario website and followed it to Hansard and start from there. Affiliated??? Not sure what that means. Have I ever been or am I now a member of the communist party? Just kidding. Card carrying member of a political party? No. You?

So back to the election ’cause got some new commentary today. Another flyer today from Howard Hampton. If it were not for the lawn signs I would swear he is running for the NDP in YSW. This is his second flyer. But not a word about anything to do with YSW and its community issues. What about transit, safety, jobs and seniors’ issues in my community? I get the broken promise stuff, but to be fair, I remember all to well the NDP when they were in government and Howard was a senior Cabinet Minister in that government and, well, the broken promise on public auto insurance was a pretty serious let down for us working stiffs and then he unilaterally and undemocratically changed my collective agreement and that cost me about 15 percent in lost wages (no exactly helpful when times were tough for the family) and, well, let’s call the broken promise stuff a draw. Not a thing from the PC candidate. Got one early flyer from Paul Ferreira with just one issue in it – the pay raise. I am supposed to vote for him because the Liberal and PCs took a pay raise, that he and his caucus MPPs are taking too but apparently are giving to charity or “community groups” but no one knows for sure? I don’t think this is going to cut it. Did get three flyers from Laura Albanses so far. An Open letter, a 3 fold pamphlet with a mix of local and provincial platform issues and a flyer on strengthening community safety. Thus far, her materials are more engaging and tell me a little bit about herself – how long she has lived in the riding, her family and so on. I don’t think it’s a vote decider, but it helps to know that a candidate is coping with the realities many voters are coping with – raising a family, putting kids through school, building a career, holding a job. Maybe Albanese has stronger campaign workers in my area or I am in a… wait for it … a “swing area.” Wonder if being in a “swing area” increases property values?

On materials, Albanese gets the better marks. On strike against Ferreira — mostly central party stuff, lacking any local issues and ideas and negative. Sometimes you need something to vote for, not against. I really don’t think the PCs are trying. In the bi-election, the PC’s put up a spirited campaign and candidate. Looks like a Liberal-NDP race. But that’s just the way I see it.

Hi Sandford,

No party affiliation here either. You just sound like a pro. I was concerned you may doing some work for another party and pushing some sort of agenda. Well, you are. You don’t like Howard Hampton and the NDP, but there’s nothing wrong with that.

I feel the NDP is on the right side of alot of issues such as the minimum wage (which is a big one in our riding). I also am thrilled with the Liberal transit plan that would have an Eglinton LRT line as a priority (although I believe the NDP ar proposing the same thing).

I’ve read alot about the positve reviews that Paul Ferreira is getting. He seems to have been a very vocal MPP in his short time representing YSW, and he continues to fight Blue22.

I witnessed one of the by-election debates, and Laura was just not strong at all. She seemed to have very little in depth knowledge of the issues. I couldn’t get past the feeling that the liberals were just trying to cash in on her name recognition with the Italian community in the riding.

I was hoping that that I would have the opportunity to see Laura in action again, in the hopes that she would have cleaned up her act. But to find out that she’s backed out of 4 of the 5 debates is just troubling to me.

I agree that this is another close one. Maybe some of the by-election protest vote goes back to the Liberals. But I think NDP sneaks (and I mean really sneaks) this one out again on the strength of the candidate.

Thanks for the discourse Sandford.
(I love this site!)

Pro? Well hardly, but do take an active interest in politics and a bit of accountability watch for politicians that live in glass houses. Got to the advance polls just in time before heading out and Albanese gets the nod. Not a fan of the gotcha politics. As I said, the pay raise for politicians does not cut it, especially when the NDP MPPs took the raise. That is pure hypocrisy – vote against it and then take it — and I think voters generally see through this. It will not be and quite frankly should not be a ballot issue in this election provincially and locally in YSW. If it were, the NDP would be no better than the PCs at clouding the election with private faith school funding.

I go with Albanese because from the get go she has focused on the things that matter to me and are upper most on my mind:: education for my kids and grand children and improvements and adequate funding for our health care system and that’s where Ferreira falls short of the mark. I want to know that my MPP is going to focus on these matters because education and health care are pretty core to our quality of life as a household and as a community, not to mention the importance to a sound economic strategy – highly skilled and health society. As for Howard, well he and his caucus decided to make the pay raise an issue. Look at his material – look at Paul’s – it is screaming to us to focus on this issue. Ok, so I did, at least for moment or two. The NDP MPPs are pocketing the pay raise too. So much for the issue.

Soooo, back to fundamentals and the things that really do matter. I did consider the minimum wage issue and your right this is very important. Albanese and the Liberals will increase gradually in a set time frame. Ferreira and the NDP say do it now. Having lived through the pretty reckless manner in which the NDP government managed our finances and economy when they were in government, I find it incredible that the NDP still don’t have a grasp on the importance of an economic strategy. The party’s mantra on minimum wage and a few other things illustrates this point. The party’s argument that an immediate jump in minimum wage will help small business because it will mean people will spend more money in their local community, is, well, shallow, and I am being charitable here. I think there are a few other considerations. I do however commend them for their conviction and for pushing this to the forefront over the last couple of years. I also agree with Howard Hampton’s recent observation that the NDP have been a far more effective Opposition party than the PCs. The role and function of Opposition in government is extremely critical. I have been most unimpressed with the PC’s. Perhaps they are still getting over their defeat in 2003. I don’t think the PCs can turn this around, but this election has been so strange, perhaps we are still in for a few surprises before next Wed. You know what they say about a week in politics.

That Ferreira has run for so many levels of government in the past likely does, over time, make him appear more confident in debates than first timers, but that does not mean he has been or will be an effective MPP or that he has a better grasp of the issues. I think Albanese has got a better sense of the human condition that will help her serve us well. Going forward, her priorities, on education and health care improvements stand head and shoulders above what we pay our MPPs and from what I am seen at my door from Ferreira, this seems to be his issue. After a month, I would have expected more and if there is more, well its a bit late in the game for me. But time to head off for some weekend R&R. Enjoyed blog’en with you and others. I think it could be a tight one too. I bet the campaign faithful are finding this weather a big relief compared to last February. They are the heart of every campaign! Your right, this has been a great site. Glad to see the moderators tagged a few idiots. Have a great and safe Thanksgiving weekend. Good luck to all the candidates in YSW.

Regarding the $10 min. wage pay raise: Won’t all the people making $10 now want $12? Won’t the people making $12 want $14? And so on and so on. It needs to be phased in, it cannot be “pronto”, there it is, $10 for everyone because I know that i would be pretty pissed off if I worked my way up to $10 from the bottom and now a new hire makes the same right off the bat. No one is talking about that effect.

The fact is that once the raise was passed by the Liberals and the Tories, the NDP did not get the option of keeping said raise off their paycheque. They do not get a say in how payroll at Queen’s Park is run. Furthermore, if someone did not want the raise, like Paul Ferreira, the only option they have is to give it away, back to the public, where it belongs in the first place.

Paul Ferreira has given away the portion of his paycheque every month that represents the raise. The teleprompter queen, Laura Albanese, was actually present during one of these occassions this past Canada Day.

To that end, her daughter proudly told me last February during a debate, that her mother was already taking a paycut, stepping down from Omni to become an MPP. Even with the MPP raise she would still be making less. Does this sound like someone who could possibly stand for the things that matter to you most? She is out of touch with reality. I encourage you to read this week’s York Guardian, where Paul has been endorsed.

As an NDP supporter I am concerned about this riding. According to the current projection on this site its a dead heat. And with the Liberals surging in the province, PAUL FERREIRA may be wishing he had kept that pay raise on election day.

All kidding aside, you don’t want to be in a tie when your opponent has the momentum. It usually doesn’t bode well for your chances.

csquared — I think it is Ferreira who has the momentum. He was endorsed by the York Guardian this weekend, which is key. And Albanese has received negative local press for her debate no-show act. In what might be a close race, I think this might have torpedoed Albanese’s chances. I’m predicting Ferreira wins by 5 to 10 points. And, frankly, he deserves it.

Will the NDP’s Paul Ferreira, who won a tight by-election, hold York South-Weston? - No. Liberals.

Returning early this morning from a couple of days seeing Ontario’s trees turning red, it’s a morning chuckle to see the NDP party faithful squirm as they try to defend their hypocritical position on the pay increase.

Normally I find the Guardian “news” paper quite suitable for the bottom of the bird cage. Really. It’s a perfect size. I generally find free newspapers are often free of other things as well such as reasonable standards of journalism, fact checking and a separation between ads and editorial. But on forcing me to actually read it, I find that at least one NDP party faithful is relying on; no, wait, promoting; an endorsement from a “newspaper” that is endorsing the PCs and urging “readers” to elect a PC government for Ontario. And your point is? Enough said about this and back to the bird cage you go!

This site is now predicting that the Libs will take York South-Weston. Its within the margin of error, but sadly it appears that my prediction will be proven right.

I’ve noticed that “klittler” has posted the exact same word for word Liberal spin in a whole series of ridings where the NDP is in contention I guess he/she must be on the Liberal payroll.

Does anyone know if this projection is being based of the results of the last general election or the by-election?

A little reality check here: The Liberals are down from 46+% to about 42% this time. The Dippers are up to near 19% from 14.5. We are talking about an 8%swing, favour of the dippers. Close LIB/NDP races favour the Dippers based on the numbers.

DL,

I am not on the Liberal payroll as you suggest but am volunteering for e-day for Laura Albanese. As far as I know, there’s no preclusion against campaign volunteers writing on this site. If there were, I suspect that there would be far fewer comments posted.

My observations were appropriate to both this riding and Kenora, as they spoke to NDP leadership and its likely local impact. I did mistakenly post it in one other riding but unfortunately there’s no “recall” button and as you will see, the reference is to YSW.

Also, my comments on Kenora-Rainy River and York South-Weston were slightly different, in keeping with my views on Howard’s leadership and the prospects in York South-Weston.

I have posted comments on four or five other ridings but none were re Howard or the NDP. With a quarter century’s experience as a campaign volunteer, I have lived and worked in a number of ridings and think that I might have something of value to add.

NDP win easily! JACK

Paul Ferreira keeps getting underestimated. He has worked this riding for the past four years and steadily built up support from one election to the next. His support extends far beyond the traditional NDP base here. He will be re-elected. I’m glad to see Democratic Space has revised its prediction. DemSpace got it wrong in the by-election; it will get it right tomorrow.

I guess the lesson is to never second guess your predictions.

I had a bad feeling this would happen.

But lets give Laura a chance. At least she’s not a conservative.