NORTH VANCOUVER

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PREDICTED WINNER Don Bell

NORTH VANCOUVER
2004 RESULTS

Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share
Don H. Bell 22619 40.03%
Ted White 20548 36.36%
John Nelson 8967 15.87%
Peggy Stortz 4114 7.28%
Andres Esteban Barker 181 0.32%
Michael Hill 77 0.14%

2006 CANDIDATES
Cindy Silver
Jim Stephenson
Don Bell (Incumbent)
Sherry Shaghaghi
Michael Hill

2006 VOTE PROJECTION


38 Comments/commentaires
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I still doubt the Liberals will hold this one. This riding has a history of downing “name” Liberal candidates (Ray Perrault, Gordon Gibson, Iona Campagnolo, Mobena Jaffer). It had a 25 year term of Conservative-Reform MPs (Chuck Cook and Ted White), neither of whom were all that “moderate”. My sense is that unless the Liberals do very well in BC, this riding will return to the Conservatives.

Comment/commentaire by RDH 12.30.05 @ 9:55 am

The demography of this riding has changed. More liberal-minded immigrants live here now. So liberals have a good chance to win this riding.

Comment/commentaire by FGH 01.13.06 @ 8:53 pm

Don Bell has a lot of cache here, as aformer Mayor
(although he’s darkly implicated in the housing landslide catastrophy originating in 1979-80 when he was Mayor); trotting out Ken Dryden etc. recently, but having done nothing in Ottawa except vote with the gov’t against the polling results/wishes of his own constituants.
Cindy Silver is bright, tireless, speaks for the underdog and can handle the mudslinging against her. She is in tough but has the momentum and is cabinet material for North Van.

Comment/commentaire by Ren 01.15.06 @ 12:22 am

Don Bell is done here in North Van. Cindy Silver has values that reflect the people of the area and Don just has his past, a past that reflects the corruption of the Liberal Party… Ted White in his last term in office as a Conservative member let it be known he was going to retire after the last federal election even if he did win… this anouncement hurt his campaign enough to get him voted out. Cindy is positive and has a real understanding of the wants and needs of the people that live in North Van. Don’s just too old school and old boys club… we need some new young blood in Ottawa.

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.15.06 @ 8:41 am

…not to mention well over half the Liberal signs have been either taken down by home owners embarised to display them and major places of display in public area’s where all candidates signs are on display, Don’s signs have been the focus of the largest amount of vandalism.

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.15.06 @ 8:46 am

this was said… “The demography of this riding has changed. More liberal-minded immigrants live here now. So liberals have a good chance to win this riding. ”

um… new immigrants are most likely to vote Conservative. A fact our party has had difficulties with for years.
I hope liberals win, but Conservatives are on the roll…

Comment/commentaire by John 01.17.06 @ 12:09 am

Prediction is a Conservative win. Most new immigrants don’t vote, but those that do tend to vote Conservative or NDP (except for european immigrants, who tend to vote green…)

Comment/commentaire by Wendel 01.17.06 @ 12:11 am

“(except for european immigrants, who tend to vote green…)”

What is your source? And how many european immigrants have actually moved to North Vancouver to be influential anyways? New citizens in this riding are likely to vote liberals or NDP but conservatives have lost this riding as it was proven in the 2004 election when liberals were still under attack but won this riding for the first time.

Comment/commentaire by FGH 01.17.06 @ 4:49 am

“Prediction is a Conservative win. Most new immigrants don’t vote…”
Prediction is right in front of you on this page. As of the time of this writing, liberals are leading in this riding.

Comment/commentaire by FGH 01.17.06 @ 4:56 am

um…last time I checked with Elections Canada Immigrants that are not Canadian citizens are not legally ellegable to vote.

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.17.06 @ 9:57 am

and as the rain continues now for more then a month now, more and more people are becoming aware of the fact Don was involved with the whole scandal around the homes being built in mud slide areas. Worked great at the time as a way to grab more tax dollars. Not so great in that it was done without regard for the dangers he may be placing those people in who built on unsafe lots…

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.17.06 @ 10:02 am

MrEd wrote: “Don’s just too old school and old boys club… we need some new young blood in Ottawa.”

New young blood! Isn’t it that conservatism is all about that OLD TRADITIONAL blood?

MrEd wrote:”last time I checked with Elections Canada Immigrants that are not Canadian citizens are not legally ellegable to vote”

Of course new immigrants can’t vote. They vote when they become citizens. And all data both in US and Canada shows they vote for more left and center parties than right wing parties. The last US presidential election results show all minority groups (racially and religion wise) voted for democrats. The stronghold of liberals and NDP in all multi-ethnical ridings in Canada also show what minorities support.

Mr.Ed wrote: “Don’s signs have been the focus of the largest amount of vandalism.”
Should this be true, this is another sign that conservative supporters do not respect law and order and freedom of speech.

Comment/commentaire by FGH 01.17.06 @ 10:11 am

HI, again. Curently I believe the status of this riding is to close to call, however the momentum is deffinately Con. hence I’m predicting a con win by 5% or so. However I don’t take my opinions to serriously, and am not going to be shocked if they aren’t true. Immigrants (or new canadians if you prefer) are less likely to vote than others (see this pg)http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes/analysiscommentary/newcanadians.html
those that do vote tentd to be conservative by nature, specifically as far as morals go . The following is a quote from the above pg

“many groups are uncomfortable with certain social issues, including same-sex marriage. ”

One of the largest blocks of imigrant voters are the Muslems, whose views tend to be much more conservative (adultsesses are executed, etc, as comanded by the Quran, the Hadith and the Ijima, which are the Islamic holy book, book of living, and Shiria council. check this web page for a moderate view of Ismal http://www.canadianislamiccongress.com

this is a website for islamic law

http://muslim-canada.org/darulqadanews.html

remember to that it was the Liberal party who first raised the current taxes on immigrants

the following is an asian web-news pg. intresting browsing here
http://www.asianpacificpost.com/news/

the following is a chinese site dedicated to the NDP
http://www.ccnc.ca/election/ndp.html#redress

the following sight has a intresting one on the liberal tax on imigrants on March 1 1995 at 2 pm
http://www.parl.gc.ca/english/hansard/previous/162_95-03-01/162SM1E.html
I quote:

“Mr. Richard Bélisle (La Prairie, BQ): Mr. Speaker, in a move of extraordinary cynicism, the Liberal government has decided to impose what amounts to an immigration tax …. In addition to the basic $500, an adult immigrant will have to pay a tax of $975 to have his application considered. ”

The liberals brought in the immigration tax in 1995, and now are trying to win by saying “we’ll remove it” (kind of like the Con’s removing the GST lol :))

and this one is really intresting. this was done in 2004, when the liberals where higher than they are now
http://noncogent.blogspot.com/2004/05/children-of-immigrants-most-likely-to.html

here’s a quote from the pg:
“Friday, May 21, 2004
Children of Immigrants Most Likely to Vote Conservative…..
In what I found as a startling statistic, despite what is traditionally assumed about immigrant families being Liberal,… the Conservative find a very strong base among first-born Canadians….
Among first-born Canadians, the Conservative party has 43% support vs. 31% for the Liberals and 22% for the NDP….”

I’d love your feedback. :)

Comment/commentaire by Wendel 01.17.06 @ 5:47 pm

MrEd

Yes, you are right, non-Canadians may not vote, as is true in any country I’ve heard of. However I was refering to new canadians. I apologise for the Confusion. However my intent was to say “new Canadian.
My Grandfather was Lebenese, my grandmother English/ Scotish
My other Grandfather Russian/ German/ Irish/ Swedish, my Grandmother German/Romanian

I was botm in Germany, my sisters in Austria
one sister married a Chinese man, another a man from Zimbawe, I have a foster sister, 2 foster brothers and my parents in Germany, A sister in Yellowknife, one in Vancouver, one in Ottawa, and one in Alberta.

So I’m a typical average Canatian
(it’s real hard doing famly geneo-grams in College lol)
:)

Comment/commentaire by Wendel 01.17.06 @ 6:29 pm

Hi, FGH

actually ion this pg the graph as of 4 days ago, which is the most recent update, shows a Liberal- Conservative ty… the dots are on each other.

love the feedback

:)

Comment/commentaire by Wendel 01.17.06 @ 6:32 pm

to FGH
you are right, there haven’t been that many immigrants from europe in this riding. that was just a side note though

Comment/commentaire by Wendel 01.17.06 @ 6:34 pm

cool wendal… My grand parents came over from Scotland and Switzerland and settled in Northern Ontario. I’m the black sheep and decided to go west while those left in Ontario have congrigated to Barrie… we get about as much rain here as they do snow but ya don’t need to shuvel rain

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.17.06 @ 6:34 pm

TCTC Lib-CPC fight

Comment/commentaire by Nick Boragina 01.18.06 @ 1:20 am

Don Bell made a fool of himself when he started screaming in the House that North Vancouver is full of bigots when some Sikh kid was allegedly ‘racially harassed’. It turned out the kid made the whole thing up and was charged with mischief. Bell’s performance was a joke.
Cindy Silver would be an asset to North Van. Don Bell would be an embarassment. What’s next Don? Burning crosses on lawns as we speak? Oh yeah. That story has already been taken.

Comment/commentaire by david gates 01.19.06 @ 5:50 am

Wendel wrote: “One of the largest blocks of immigrant voters are the Muslems, whose views tend to be much more conservative ”

What is your source again that the largest blocks of immigrant voters are musilms?Muslims are quite outnumbered by other minority groups in Canada and they are quite spread out in the country to be influential in one riding or another. However if you are particularly referring to the North Vancouver riding because of the large Iranian/Persian community, it’s a dire mistake to think whoever comes from a Muslim country is necessarily a muslim. This is stereotyping. I believe the majority of Iranian community in North Vancouver are secular. And again the example is not too far: Sherry Shaghaghi, the NDP candidate for North Vancouver which proves 1) new Canadians participate in politics and 2) someone from a muslim country does not necessarily support that ideology and does not necessarily act like a conservative.

I believe we need left, right and center economical points of view in a healthy parliament. They all have valid points. I understand a wealthy canadian should vote for conservatives but I consider it hypocrisy when the conservative politicians (both in Canada and US) try to steal the votes of low-income families by repeatedly bringing up these side issues (abortion, same-sex marriage, etc.). How many times should we go over these issues? One should also ask if these issues are really at the heart of what Mr. Harper and conservatives believe why then their party platform has changed so much from the 2004 election from a true conservative party platform to a rather liberal party type of platform on moral issues. Is it not exactly the same game that George Bush played in 2000 US election when conservatism had lost it appeals and they had to use new tactics to rule again?

Comment/commentaire by FGH 01.19.06 @ 10:37 am

What bothers me the most about Cindy Silver is not only that she’s built her career working for anti-gay causes (in this riding, famed for Doug Collins and Ted White, that might gain her votes, although not from me) – no, the thing that bothers me is her spinelessness in trying to distance herself from it. She lacks the spine to come clean on her own background and beliefs. As much as I despair about the Liberals and am unenthusiastic about Don Bell, I find her totally unacceptable as a representative.

Comment/commentaire by ERB 01.19.06 @ 6:09 pm

“there haven’t been that many immigrants from europe in this riding”

I was born and raised in this riding, and frequently go back to visit as the rest of my family still lives there. Lots of kids my age had one or both parents from Europe, and statistics bear that out: at least 12% of North Vancouverites were born in Europe according to 1996 census data, the latest I could find. Sure, most of them immigrated decades ago, but they’re still around.

As for Iranians: Iranian immigrants are surely more than the 3% they were in 1996, but I don’t know how many are Muslims; all the Iranians I knew here were either Bahai or Zoroastrian or Jewish.

Comment/commentaire by WCD 01.20.06 @ 2:21 am

umm…. in 2004 the New Conservative party had only just formed as a party and had not had time to form a party charter or vote on their constitution… hence Mr Dithers called the election before they could radify anything and he took advantage of the now famous “hidden agenda” BS arguement.

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.20.06 @ 7:31 am

Lib win, by 439 votes, Cindy is too lightweight, and has no backbone.People are fed up with the party’s bashing of miniorities.Re: issue of how Immigrants vote, well let me tell you from an immigrant’s point of view. I have found the Tory party to be against immigrants, and you will see that sponsoring anyone will become nigh on impossible. The gates to Canada will be shut, and all you rednecks Tory supporters will cheer. Rememer that Canada was built on the backs of the Immigrants.

Comment/commentaire by Mike 01.20.06 @ 8:08 am

There is no doubt thatSilver is not being honest about her social agenda. She pretty much blew her top when confronted on the gay marriage issue at my kid’s grade school assembly and also accused Don Bell of being bribed to vote in favour of gay marriage! She doesn’t like gays, favours the death penalty and is strongly anti-abortion-you’ve been warned.

Comment/commentaire by PW 01.20.06 @ 11:27 am

so those voting Liberal are simply agreeing with the theft of their tax dollars for use by the gov’t for whatever they want to use them on as long as they can hide it better next time….with no rules of accountability what so ever, and that things like the Income Trust, Gomorey’s Adscam, and the whole “entitled to entitlements” aditude in Ottawa is totally forgivable and acceptable behaviour in our gov’t today??? What messages are you sending to your family’s??? It’s okay to lie? Go ahead and steel? Cheat people but don’t get caught? It’ll be very interesting on Tuesday morning if Martin somehow manages to win a minority gov’t again…he’ll be lucky according to polls to win his own seat…that being said…how effective will Don Bell be sitting in opposition on getting anything addressed for North Vancouverits interests….oh wait, he did so much last time he was there, voting with the party on everything like a good little backbencher, and never coming back to North Van to ask how the people here felt about anything….I’m not saying Cindy will have a cabinet post, but I think with the work shes done with comunities, the energy she projects, and the manor in which she’s conducted herself this campaign, she will and through her we will be heard.

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.21.06 @ 8:13 am

The thing is you gotta vote for someone. Do you vote for Cindy Silver, whose only public record is gay-hating intolerance, and whose party, in the Molroney days, was thrown out for corruption — or Don Bell, a relatively ineffective member of a morally compromised party, that nonetheless brought Canada back from a staggering deficit?

It’s really tough. I’m glad the Conservatives have become a national party –the country really needs one. But I’ll vote against intolerance any day.

Comment/commentaire by ERB 01.21.06 @ 11:27 am

I know Cindy well. She has clearly explained her position on gay rights. She stands for equal rights for all Canadians regardless of sexual orientation, not for intolerance. She is not in favor of defining a union of gays or lesbians as marriage. Pick another word.

Comment/commentaire by Mr A 01.21.06 @ 3:51 pm

Conservative Win. Final Answer.

Comment/commentaire by Nick Boragina 01.21.06 @ 6:52 pm

Cindy has this wrapped up, a win by at least 5000 votes. This is a Reform Consevative riding and there aren’t that many new residents since 2000 when Ted White received over half the vote with Stock Day as Leader.

Comment/commentaire by George 01.22.06 @ 4:33 am

1. WCD wrote: “As for Iranians: Iranian immigrants are surely more than the 3% they were in 1996, but I don’t know how many are Muslims; all the Iranians I knew here were either Bahai or Zoroastrian or Jewish.”

As an Iranian, let me tell you this is not completely true either. Iran is a country with 98% muslim population. Majority of Iranians who live in North Vancouver are coming from muslim family. This does not mean they practice their religion. It just means they come from families who have been traditionally muslim. In fact, many of them have become secular or only parctice a ghost of their religion only in a spritual way. They didn’t feel well with the extreme ideas of their government and that’s one of the main reasons they left their country.

2. I think it is really good that Canada might have another minority government. Modern history has taught us extreme ideas, should it be right or left, cause more damage than benefits and this was somehow reflected in Canadian politics for several years by having a centrist party in power. The problem, however, is that when there is a party ruling for many years, accountability decreases and corruption rises so they should be challenged every once a while and this is what we see now. It is actually in this kind of situations that politicians may actually
deliver their promises. What I don’t understand though is why Canada should lean more towards the right in this situation. Isn’t it that NDP who in similar circumastances brought the universal health care for which even Steven Harper takes pride and distinguishes himself from Americans?

3. Wendel wrote: “One of the largest blocks of imigrant voters are the Muslems, whose views tend to be much more conservative (adultsesses are executed, etc, as ”
If this is ture, it is an irony that the conservative party has appeals for fundamentalists but at the same time, it is the very same party which wants to go after those fundamentalists (or at least they wanted to do so back in 2004).

Comment/commentaire by FGH 01.22.06 @ 8:06 am

One final comment on the economy that people seem to forget… The Liberals won in 1993 because they said they were going to “Axe da Tax!” They didn’t…in fact they increased taxes. They also said they disagreed on free trade…but we have it today under their following through on Mr Mulroney’s beginnings… so,… we have a strong economy today under a Liberal gov’t…how much of the money that was used to pay down the debt is a direct result of these conservative strategy’s and implementations Mr Martin and Mr Cretien are on record for violently opposing… How much of that money came from the cutting of transfer payments, instigated by the Liberal Gov’t was used to pay down debt, How much of the debit was paid down by raiding public trusts and programs like UI or i mean EI which was cut back by Mr Martin’s Liberal Gov’t? and finally, in running surplus after surplus after surplus budget from increased taxes, how much has your personal take home income gone up??? How long are hospital waiting lists? What is the state of education in Canada? Where were we in 1993 and where are we today? How many scandals will it take before people wake up? Vote Conservative, Vote NDP, Vote Green, get out and vote…don’t vote Liberal and allow this entitlement culture to continue

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.22.06 @ 11:05 am

the other things people forget about the economy is our dollar is measured against the American dollar… The American economy is in a terible state today under Bush. He’s screwed them up majorly with his own agenda on oil…guess who the USA’s largest oil supplier is…Canada! So Mr Martin has been making truck loads of money off oil to feed the USA. Increased world prices on Oil, Copper(up 200%), Coal, Iron, and a relative strengthened dollar because the USA dollar is in the world toilet is a more likely reason our economy is doing comparatively well… but working in the tech sector I can tell you not to kid yourself…high tech jobs are going to China for cheaper labour, From having being in the hospitals over the last 7 years with aging parents and grandparents the Infrastructure jobs like doctors and nurses are leaving Canada for the states because they have to go where the money is and with transfer payment cut backs under the Liberals we’re seeing an increasing number of provinces having to make the hard choice of where the dwindling money from Ottawa gets spent. And it’s the absolute height of hypocracy to claim only voting Liberal, for a party plagued with coruption, scandal, and a culture of entitlements is the only way to save Canada when it’s precicly because of Liberal Policy, Scandals, and coruption that Canada is on the verge of flying apart

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 01.22.06 @ 11:30 am

I can’t see how anyone van vote liberal this election. They all need to be kicked out. Let Harper start his investigations and charge and jail everyone involved for all the scams. The leftovers can restart the party and try again in 4 years.

Comment/commentaire by Scott M 01.22.06 @ 3:16 pm

How appropriate that Harper’s candidate in North Vancouver is Cindy Silver, a religious nut who’s against womens’ right to choose and who wants to take legislated rights away from gays and lesbians.

But why is this not surprising? Harper voted against bill C-250, the legislation which added gay bashing to hate crimes legislation. In Harper’s warped little mind, killing someone merely because they’re gay is not a hate crime.

Comment/commentaire by norman 01.23.06 @ 2:38 am

Your high pitched rhetoric is “extermely” unattractive. Give it up Liberal-at-the-trough.
For our sake please read the platforms. Your not reading the policies. It is definately not what you say above. Read. Read Read. Foreign concept to you. C’mon read. Educate yourself. And then go out a vote Conservative.

Comment/commentaire by Ren 01.23.06 @ 9:24 am

The election is over and it looks like the people of North Vancouver did educate themselves on the sordid history of Harper’s voting pattern. Harper did indeed vote against bill C-250 as anyone who has read about this issue will discover.

How refreshing that the people of North Vancouver did indeed read and educate themselves and discover that Cindy Silver was an anti-abortionist and anti-gay religious nut who makes even Stephen Harper appear moderate.

It appears that all the socially intolerant religious fanatics running for Harper in BC went down to defeat, i.e., Cindy Silver in North Vancouver, John Weston in West Vancouver and Darrel Reid in Richmond. But this is to be expected when you run religious nuts in ridings where the voters are reasonably well educated and well read.

Comment/commentaire by norman 01.23.06 @ 11:40 pm

Norman, Norman, Norman…. you talk about others being intolerant and in the same sentence throw it around like it’s going outta style. Did you look to see why Harper voted against it or just that he voted against C-250? If you don’t understand why, there’s no point in discussing it further. Cindy Silver was legal council for Focus on the Family…a group that believes in the sancity of life and she disagrees with abortion as do many others, and she believes in the traditional definition of mariage (as 70% of Canadians do if the option of Civil Union is on the same question.) i.e. the method in which the British Parliment addressed this topic by offering Civil Union to have all Rights, privlages, and responsibilities that are defined in the traditional terms of a Mariage available to gays. I’m Maried… when the Liberal/NDP/and Bloc Parliment forced their belief system on all Canadians without asking all Canadians in a national Reforendum, they stepped on my rights and the rights of the Majority for the minority. I know many Gays and they actually don’t care what it’s called…thy just want the Rights, privlages, and responsibilities that are defined in the traditional terms of a Mariage. The Liberals could have avoided that issue entirely if they’d taken a page from the Brit’s. On the abortion issue… 250,000 abortions are paid for by tax payers every year in Canada… I don’t think that in a civilized country where birth control is readily available that it is being properly explained as to why some people are so against it… I know when our child first started kicking at 18 weeks there was no one on the planet that could have harmed my wife and our unborn child with me anywhere near and walk away alive. Once you have children of your own and are married Norman I’d be interested in engaging you in an educated converstion on the topic…

Comment/commentaire by MrEd 02.01.06 @ 1:03 pm



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