VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH

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PREDICTED WINNER John Duncan

VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH
2004 RESULTS

Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share
John Duncan 18733 35.41%
Catherine Bell 18250 34.5%
Noor Ahmed 11352 21.46%
Pam Munroe 4456 8.42%
Jack East 111 0.21%

2006 CANDIDATES
John Duncan (Incumbent)
Michael Mascall
Jim Mitchell
Catherine Bell
James Neufeld

2006 VOTE PROJECTION


27 Comments/commentaires
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Catherine Bell is going to take this riding for the NDP in 2006. I am not saying that it won’t be close but this is not a right-wing riding. Enough Liberal and Green support will go to Bell this time to defeat Duncan.

Comment/commentaire by Ken Adams 01.08.06 @ 4:43 am

This race seems to be back to square one,but,with a small 2-3% swing in the Liberal vote towards the N.D.P.,Catherine Bell may just be able to pull off a win in this riding for the New Democrats.

Comment/commentaire by Kevin Mac Donald 01.09.06 @ 11:13 am

Bell will be taking this riding; I can feel it at the doorstep.

Comment/commentaire by Sandy McL 01.10.06 @ 2:47 am

Bell should win. NDP resources are all over this large riding.

Comment/commentaire by Mark R. 01.13.06 @ 9:54 am

NDP!

Comment/commentaire by Chris 01.15.06 @ 8:49 am

John Duncan will win hands down.

Comment/commentaire by Maureen 01.16.06 @ 6:24 am

no one will be a clear win, or hands down. the winner is the one who will get out and get their suporters voting. To close to call. perhaps within 100 votes… to close to call. I guess we’ll see ;)

Comment/commentaire by Wendel 01.17.06 @ 12:15 am

Conservative win. the NDP is down provincewide and the tories up.

Comment/commentaire by Nick Boragina 01.18.06 @ 1:31 am

John Duncan has been a very ineffective politician for the North Island. In my experience he has been unapproachable, and only represents the people who voted for him. Catherine Bell will be a much stronger, inclusive voice for this riding. Bell should win this rematch.

Comment/commentaire by Norm Eisler 01.18.06 @ 1:49 pm

John Duncan will take this riding for a 5th term. Voters realize that we will get better representation from an experienced MP, who will likely be given a cabinet post, over a rookie backbencher in a party that will never win even official opposition status. There has been an influx of over 4000 people to the Comox Valley in the past year. These are mostly retiring “baby boomers” that have money and will not cherish the socialist values.

Comment/commentaire by Richard 01.19.06 @ 3:06 pm

This time around, the Duncan campaign is making sure they get the vote out.. and disenchanted Liberals are moving to the Tories big time. Stick a fork in it folks, this one is done like dinner. Duncan will take it by more than a thousand votes this time.

Comment/commentaire by Larry R 01.20.06 @ 12:55 pm

Give Alberta more support, Vote NDP! If Bell won, she would sit in opposition. There is no chance the Conservatives would form coalition with them. So a vote for Bell means, less support for North Island hospitals, less support for North Island College, and less support for North Island union workers.

North Islanders understand the difference between the Provincial and the Federal NDP.

NDP support may be strong, but the only thing changed since last election is the Conservatives percentages surging across Canada.

Comment/commentaire by Andy N 01.20.06 @ 8:19 pm

TO any one in this riding voting conservative.. If you want George W. Vote conservative. If you want Canada vote NDP

Comment/commentaire by Tony Bocale 01.20.06 @ 9:18 pm

Terry has a right to his opinion.. and he has obviously never let the truth get in the way of his phobias.. just as the Liberals have never let truth stand in the way of their addiction to power, privilege and entitlement. Thankfully, we are sending Terry’s lying Liberal buddies a message on Monday that this kind of fear mongering just doesn’t work any more.

Comment/commentaire by Larry R 01.21.06 @ 8:16 am

I’m sick of all this strategic voting stuff. Unfortunately it is all down to the failure of democracy in Canada. We should all vote for our favourite candidate (not party). Unfortunately this is not possible until we get PR. To get that we must have a minority government dependant on NDP support. The NDP must hold to their promise. Then all will see the light.

As to the real vote. It will be very close. The answer is blowing in the wind.

Comment/commentaire by Andrew Fyson 01.21.06 @ 1:52 pm

As much as I want to see Bell in there, this seat has a Duncan repeat feel. If you support the NDP, don’t forget to set your alarm Monday morning!

Comment/commentaire by Dave 01.21.06 @ 5:15 pm

John Duncan is a nice guy who would win with no matter what party he ran with. The Vancouver Islan North riding is not a Conservative riding, it is a John riding. I think John will take it, it was close before and it will be close again, but he is experienced, and people have been able to see what he can do.

Comment/commentaire by Tiffany 01.21.06 @ 6:36 pm

Actually Green support is up by about 3 or 4%. Greens don’t seem to be broken up by Toronto Jack’s threats and begging. Harper is like an Amway salesman on steroids. Besides, what party would expect to be taken seriously when the common theme in their ads is xylophone music?

Comment/commentaire by Andy N 01.22.06 @ 1:20 am

It would be a foolish thing to vote in Bell. John Duncan is assured a job looking after one of the federal portfolios. He could do very well for us in this riding. He also has political experience that will get things done. He has worked very hard for us in the past, why throw it all away. All Bell has experience in is flipping burgers. A vote for her is a vote for the socialists. Vote wisely. Stand up for Canada and Vote Duncan.

Comment/commentaire by Rick 01.22.06 @ 1:35 pm

I think Bell will take this one in a very close election, possibly within 100 votes. Soft Liberals are switching to NDP at the last minute in the NDP-Conservative races in BC, and the Green Party is a little less visible here this time.

Comment/commentaire by Ben 01.22.06 @ 3:42 pm

The conservatives under harper & Duncan ,
ner stood up for canada last fall, either did the liberals.
If you think they are standing for Canada after 3month ago NO. give your head a shake,
John duncan voted for scabs to do our job while we on strike. John Duncan said no when Martin & Harper gave the workers money if their jobs lost too bankrupty. and you figure john duncan is the workers answer> thank god I’m retired.
joe skrlac port mcneill

Comment/commentaire by Joe Skrlac 01.22.06 @ 7:03 pm

Well, if “soft” liberals are bailing for the NDP then “hard” liberals, people that enjoy fiscal prudence, should veer from the socialists who will only raise taxes and costs pandering to the unions…and vote Con to save the economy. Same logic. Since most voters are white and Christian is this the rise of a Christian Republican sweep of our culture? Its not like Canada doesn’t have enough rednecks to fuel a surge of that sort. Tough on crime anti gay etc goes a long way in North America. I say look out, this could go South…literally.

Comment/commentaire by David 01.22.06 @ 7:26 pm

I think John’s going to take it because people realize he’s got a long history in this riding and he is poised to be a Cabinet Minister, not an Oppositon backbencher as Bell would be. The overwhelming majority of people in the country want a change, and the smart money is on John and the Tories. I don’t think the Liberal’s smear against the military is playing too well in Courtenay/Comox — and for good reason.

And I agree with David’s comment above, Liberal voters will split off in at least 2 different directions, since they are (usually) central on issues between the Tories and the Dippers.

If John loses, I will be greatly disappointed in this riding’s lack of foresight.

But wow…it’s going to be a close one.

Comment/commentaire by Ripplerock 01.23.06 @ 3:25 am

A good showing by the Greens will ensure that environmental concerns are well-addressed, since the Green pary has the ability to become a spoiler in any future contest

Comment/commentaire by Nevin 01.23.06 @ 6:13 am

No doubt, Greens working hand in hand with Cons to take this riding from NDP. Not surprising when the Green leader is a former Tory and makes his name (and dough) by cozying up to big corporate interests. Duncan in a very close one. (Make sure to send a thank you card to Mascall and the “Greens”.)

Comment/commentaire by g ingraham 01.23.06 @ 11:12 am

People forget fast, and put head in sand.

I ask YOU. DID JOHN Duncan & the conservatives stand up for Canada last fall??. NO!!!!
DID our Liberal Go.t???
WHY in heaven’s s name would they stand up, now 3 months later.
DO NOT forget: North island voters…
without NDP we would never had:
old age pension, UIC for the unemployed, Medicare, and Canada Pension Plan.
can you do with out the above FOUR plans.
NO you can’t, every one must consider how lucky we are..
GIVE your self a good cuff aside of the head for voting any right wing party who will descimate our social values and structure here in canada.

Comment/commentaire by Joe Skrlac 01.23.06 @ 2:15 pm

Looks like Island NDP are referring to our soldiers as terrorists. Catherine’s recommendation re: softwood is to not allow any exports. That will really help union workers, it will help them access EI earlier is all. The only party scared of a Spring Election is the NDP. Vote Liberal, or anything but NDP.

Comment/commentaire by Mike Smyth 12.16.06 @ 4:07 pm



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