FREDERICTON

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PREDICTED WINNER Andy Scott

FREDERICTON
2004 RESULTS

Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share
Andy Scott 19819 46.78%
Kent Fox 14193 33.5%
John Carty 7360 17.25%
Daron Letts 997 2.35%

2006 CANDIDATES
Pat Lynch
Philip Duchastel
Andy Scott (Incumbent)
John Carty
David Raymond Amos

2006 VOTE PROJECTION


21 Comments/commentaires
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I would not be so sure about calling this one for the grits. If the tories continue to clmb in the polls they can pull off a win here. But for now, I am predicting a Liberal win.

Comment/commentaire by Nick Boragina 01.11.06 @ 5:16 pm

Definitely TCTC. Today’s SC poll has the Tories with a slight lead in Atlantic Canada. That means seats like this one are in play.

Comment/commentaire by gorman 01.11.06 @ 11:40 pm

AndyScott has done a great job for this riding but it wont be enough for him to withstand the the blue toronado building in Ontario. Undecided will go to the perceived winners and elect Lynch.

Comment/commentaire by nathaniel gee 01.12.06 @ 9:18 am

BONJOUR. LA VILLE DE FREDERICTION DEMONTRE QUE LES CONSERVATEURS ON MONTER ,SERAIT -IL POSSIBLE DE FAIRE LE GRAPHQUE ! MERCI DE LORN

Comment/commentaire by lorn 01.14.06 @ 9:23 pm

How can anyone say that Andy Scott has done a good job for the Liberals-first he got caught talking too much and then the fiasco with the Indians. Time for a change! I would predict that Pat Lynch will take this seat.

Comment/commentaire by Carolyn Gunter 01.15.06 @ 7:05 pm

Your candidate is probably too far behind and you may have waited too long to get out the correct message. Here is the message so get at it:

Voters of Fredericton forget liberal promises for this election. They are never going to happen because the liberals are going to get crushed throughout Candada. Students forget about that foolish made on the run promise of free education in your 1st and 4th year. All you would get of that (even if they kept their promise) is the bill. What you need to decide this week is: do you want to elect someone who will be inside the government representing the needs of NB or do you want to elect someone who will be sitting with his tail between his legs for the next 4 years. It looks like the later is true not only for Fredericton but the rest of Atlantic Canada. Once again we will be out of step with the rest of Canada.
Quebec is smart enough to know on what side their toast is buttered. They are leaving the BQ in droves…we will sit here wondering what happened.
You better get that message out…it might not be too late. GET ON THE RADIO

Comment/commentaire by Gordon Moffitt 01.15.06 @ 7:07 pm

The Problem is that Alantic Canada will set the Tide for the rest of the Country on Election Night .That is why i believe ridings like Tobique and Saint John will be Blue by the End of the Night and Frederictons Large undecided will put Lynch over the top.

Comment/commentaire by kevin 01.15.06 @ 10:30 pm

Last election Liberals won the election on effective negative ads which help put ridings like Scott over the top, this time fingers point back with 20/20 hindsight, people are not going to buy into out of context ads. Mr. Flip Flop will be looking for new work.

Comment/commentaire by mark 01.15.06 @ 11:03 pm

This one will be a squeaker till the end. With the potential of the Lord/Harper relationship for
Fredericton and NB the Tory’s should pull it off with the NDP’s cutting into the Liberal vote. (barring a major flub up by Harper)

Comment/commentaire by Don 01.16.06 @ 1:26 am

Hang in there, like the rest of the numbers Lynch will contiue to grow as well and will pull it out by 700 votes on Election night.

Comment/commentaire by kevin 01.16.06 @ 9:52 am

Hang in there, like the rest of the numbers Lynch will contiue to grow as well and will pull it out by 700 votes on Election night.

Comment/commentaire by kevin 01.16.06 @ 9:52 am

Blue skies up above relax Kevin your message came thru the first time.

Comment/commentaire by nathaniel gee 01.17.06 @ 8:59 pm

I just tuned into the candidate debate on Rogers Cable – very interesting discussions, debates.

Most interesting however was that after the “show” ended, the candidates for the Conservative, NDP and Green parties shook hands with each other and appeared to wish each other a good evening. the Liberal candidate however, bypassed them and shook the hands of only the media representatives.

Kinda says alot about one’s character…

Comment/commentaire by Paticia 01.17.06 @ 5:04 pm

moving this to TCTC for me. The tories have had a major upswing, but its questionable weather or not that’s reached the maritimes.

Comment/commentaire by Nick Boragina 01.17.06 @ 10:53 pm

Just to disagree with Patricia’s comment about the Rogers debate and the Liberal candidate not shaking hands with anyone at its conclusion. Having been in the audience at the debate Mr. Scott clearly shook hands with all candidates before walking over to thank the panel. Having met Mr. Scott on numerous occassions I feel very comfortable with the fact that he would demonstrate nothing but respect for the democratic process as well as all of the other candidates.

Comment/commentaire by Jay 01.20.06 @ 10:35 am

Pat is correct and Jay is wrong , Jay were you dreaming or asleep at the debate . Andy Scott did not and i repeat did not shake hand with the other candidates………. kevin.

Comment/commentaire by kevin 01.20.06 @ 9:26 pm

I disagree. Chipman, Minto Northside and area and disgruntled red pc’s on the south side will turn the tide. But a nailbiter for sure. Tory’s take it by a hair.

Comment/commentaire by Don 01.21.06 @ 2:57 pm

Andy Scott won by 5500 votes last time. If the voter turnout is about the same as last election, all that is necessary for a Pat Lynch win is for 1/2 plus 1 to switch sides: i.e., 2750 +1. That amounts to about 15 votes per poll. So if 15 votes per poll changes sides, Pat wins. Given the national political climate this time around, it appears to be a no-brainer to call a Conservative win in Fredericton.

Besides, it is far better for a riding to have it’s MP part of government that in opposition. Stephen Harper will form the government this time, if the polls can be believed, and Frederictonians will see their bread buttered on the Conservative side this time.

Comment/commentaire by Russ 01.21.06 @ 8:41 pm

It seems that every election, Andy Scott is on the bubble, but somehow squeaks back in after a number of Conservative gaffes. Those have not materialized this time and I think it puts Andy at risk. I predict the Tories will take this riding by 300 votes.

Comment/commentaire by Norma 01.22.06 @ 8:35 am

it appears that once again, the people of fredericton have chosen a face they know, over one they don’t. despite mr. scott’s repeated political mishaps, and clear incompetence in his office, he has been allowed to continue stand in the way of fredericton’s progress. when will this city learn that actual results are more than simply attending BBQs every weekend.

Comment/commentaire by jonathan 01.25.06 @ 6:27 pm

We always get the governments we deserve and then men like me must deal with the corrupt bastards on our own while you just bitch about things as if you really cared.
Veritas Vincit
David Raymond Amos

Comment/commentaire by David Raymond Amos 05.21.06 @ 2:12 pm



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