OSHAWA

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PREDICTED WINNER Colin Carrie

OSHAWA
2004 RESULTS

Candidate Party Vote Count Vote Share
Colin Carrie 15815 33.21%
Sid Ryan 15352 32.24%
Louise V. Parkes 14510 30.49%
Liisa Whalley 1850 3.39%
Tim Sullivan 91 0.19%

2006 CANDIDATES
Colin Carrie (Incumbent)
Adam Jobse
Louise Parkes
Sid Ryan

2006 VOTE PROJECTION


32 Comments/commentaires
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After the close call in 2004, voters in Oshawa won’t be fooled by last minutes calls for strategic voting. If the NDP hits 20% in Ontario, this seat will go NDP, unless of course the Tories manage to take over 35% of the Ontario vote.

Comment/commentaire by dude 12.28.05 @ 6:00 am

What happens across the province with the NDP cannot be said to be the same with Oshawa. Oshawa is unusual in that it is a city with a strong unionist tradition but one where the line worker’s salary is comfortably middle class. Taxes, smaller government, justice, and even morality come into play here. Oshawa has one of the highest levels of religious observance in the province and it is not usual for NDP voters to shift to the Conservatives from one election to the other. Liberal victories in the 90’s here were merely an abiration, as the right was split between the Reform/Alliance and PC’s. In every election, 93, 97 and 2000 the combined right-winged vote wins. Carrie won a nailbiter in 2004. He will keep all those votes and then some as the tide for change becomes too strong and more and more NDP supporters vote Tory.

Comment/commentaire by red bandit 01.01.06 @ 4:00 am

The people of this riding do not want a conservative MP. The Tory only one because of vote splitting between the Liberals and the NDP, where people voted Liberal to keep the Tory out. This time Oshawa voters will vote for the candidate and party that they really support and the NDP will take it!

Comment/commentaire by Ken Adams 01.05.06 @ 11:10 pm

Mr. Adams, you provide no basis to suggest why the NDP will win in Oshawa. The truth is that the NDP have not held the riding since the days of ED Broadbent and much has changed since then. The Oshawa voter is very sophisticated and well- to-do. The NDP does not speak for the rank and file union guy any more than Buzz Hargrove. I’ll eat my shirt if the NDP wins in Oshawa.

Comment/commentaire by red bandit 01.06.06 @ 1:14 am

Collin Carrie has a much better chance of winning this riding than he did in 2004. 18 months ago voters were weary of the new CPC amalgamate, namely that it wouldn’t allow for Union friendly people like Carrie to speak their mind. However, in parliament, carrie did vote with the NDP, Bloc, and left-Liberals to ban strike replacement workers (right-Liberals and most CPC-MPs prevented its passage), along with 12 other union friendly CPC-ers. In 2004, it was the least of three evils - Sid Ryan’s rhetoric still scares people across the country. People who voted liberal last time around were most likely doing so out of disgust for Ryan and the Reform minded CPC-ers. Carrie’s position as a moderate/populist in the CPC should only solidify his standing in this riding.

Comment/commentaire by Andrew G. 01.08.06 @ 2:41 am

red bandit, Jack Layton is a very capable leader and would be best fitted for the PM position out of all the other party leaders. He’s entusiastic, charismatic, and the only one with some sense of humor. And as for your last comment; bon appetite!

P.S. what kind of name is red bandit? grow up

Comment/commentaire by Chris 01.15.06 @ 10:02 am

Lets hope the Libs in this riding vote strategically and usher in Sid Ryan. This is one seat the Tories do not deserve to keep.

Comment/commentaire by Phil 01.15.06 @ 11:38 pm

Colin will win this riding. The NDP pig will be defeated/ Vote Harper.

Comment/commentaire by alison dumffys 01.16.06 @ 12:46 am

After reading all the above comments, I can make one prediction for this riding….the Liberals have no chance of winning! As a unionized worker for over twenty years I am finding myself voting against my union leadership again. My parents emigrated from a socialist state and for those of eastern european background they understand you can never vote for a socialist party in this country. We do not want to go down that road. While the NDP have great ideas on paper as do their close cousins the communists(left wing), their ideas are unfeasable and the hell if I am gonna leave my kids with more debt than we inherited. I urge all constituents to think strongly and vote accordingly. Look at past records because actions always speak louder than words!

Comment/commentaire by Alec 01.16.06 @ 1:04 am

Phil,

Your comments make no sense at all. Why do the Tories not deserve to keep Oshawa? Why should Oshawa be denied the opporunity to play a constructive role in shaping government? Why religate Oshawa to the political bacwaters by voting NDP? That is such a lousy argument. The CPC has many good things to offer all of Canada and Oshawa. Colin Carrie is a man of honest, integrity and decency. He deserves to be re-elected and Oshawa deserves to be at the government caucus table.

PS. BTW Chris if you knew anything about political theory you would know that the word “Tory” is a gaelic derivite of the word bandit. I am a red tory, hence the nom de plum of red bandit.

Comment/commentaire by red bandit 01.16.06 @ 1:54 am

bandit, you can’t really blame me for not knowing political theory. I’m younger than you might think but the point is, the Conservatives don’t really have much to offer. Behind their razzle and dazzle promises, you can tell that they’re going to lead Canada into a bigger defecit than the NDP could. The Conservatives are even spending more. That’s a first. And the 2% GST cut seems like a vote buying promise to me. Did you know that it’s actually 1% and then maybe another 1% in 5 years? I’m surprised how anyone can be shallow enought to like the PCPs. Half of their promised spending is on the GST cut. Surely theres a much better way to invest the money.

Comment/commentaire by Chris 01.16.06 @ 3:16 am

Chris, I can’t think of a better way to invest the money than by giving it back to the people that earned it in the first place. The GST cut is a good idea.

Comment/commentaire by MDT 01.16.06 @ 8:53 am

Dear friends,

I will start by saying, my Grandfather was born in Oshawa, my father was born in Oshawa, I was born in Oshawa, my 4 girls were born in Oshawa, I work in oshawa! However I no longer live in Oshawa! After seeing what a NDP mayor, a NDP MPP and a NDP MP did for Oshawa I moved my family out of there! I had 3 cars stolen in 1 year! got bothered by crack heads in the park behind my house! and the downtown core was the worst in the Durham Region! Colin Carrie and the CPC will bring Oshawa back to the glory days of Mike Starr! Go Colin Go!! I know this man to be very honest! unlike Sid or Louise!

I drove a total of 5 hours this weekend Just to help colin in this race! I wish more people in the city of Oshawa felt like I do about Colin and his stand for Oshawa. I know on Jan. 23 the people of Oshawa will choose Colin as the best for the job of Leading Oshawa in the days ahead!

Comment/commentaire by scottie 01.16.06 @ 12:23 pm

MDT,
I can think of a better way to spend that money. How about public health care? Quality education for our kids? Combating homelessness? Helping the enviroment? Reducing child poverty? How will a GST cut help the poor when the rich saves the most money?

Comment/commentaire by Chris 01.17.06 @ 6:46 am

Why do you have Sid Ryan winning Oshawa? He ran last time and lost it and tories are way up in eastern ontario. In general the auto towns Oshawa and Windsor are really shifting away from the NDP.

Comment/commentaire by andy m 01.17.06 @ 6:57 am

Chris, you said

“How about public health care?”

- I’m all for public health care, but I think we can learn a lot about delivery and efficiency from private health care. Besides, both Martin and Layton have confirmed that they have used services at private clinics.

“Quality education for our kids?”

- Fine with me. But before you slam the Tories, it was Liberal cuts to provincial transfers in the 90’s that tightened the screws to provincial coffers.

“Combating homelessness?”

- Can’t disagree again. And the Tories have agreed to offer financial incentives to builders if they build not-for-profit housing. Although working in the charitable sector myself I have found it interesting that so many of those who want public housing don’t want it in their neighbourhoods.

“Helping the enviroment?”

Good point. Tell me what is the Liberal and NDP environment policy?… I see!

“Reducing child poverty?”

Let’s put emphasis on work-place training, good education and fair taxation. If kids are living in poverty it’s because their parents are in poverty. Let’s give’em a hand up not a hand out.

“How will a GST cut help the poor when the rich saves the most money”

This is patently false. A cut in the lowest marginal tax rate has no impact on pensioners, those on disability assistance or the unemployed. A reduction on the GST is very progressive as it impacts everyone when purchases are made.

Here’s the funny thing… 15 years ago the Tories were crucified for bringing in the GST, now people want to keep it.

My vote is with Carrie - if that wasn’t already obvious.

Comment/commentaire by red bandit 01.17.06 @ 8:58 am

This race may be as close as last time, so to all you Liberals out there that tell NDP suuporters to vote strategically, it is time for you guys to support the NDP when they are in a close race with the Conservatives. Hopefully I don’t even need to say this and people will just realize on their own that more than 66% of the riding voted for someone other than the Conservative in 2004, so with the Liberals in 3rd last time and down in the polls, to get rid of the Conservative just put your support behind Sid Ryan and the NDP. 500 more votes are all that are needed to get rid of the useless Conservative.

Comment/commentaire by Ken Adams 01.18.06 @ 10:20 am

Wow! after reading people’s post on this site, I can safely say that People are Idiots … let’s see, we are willing to try something in 2006 that was attempted unsuccessfully by Mike Harris in the 90s, correct me if I’m wrong but didn’t Harris put tax breaks for builders who build affordable housing .. how many units were built? And everyone that’s is worried about socialism and economics, I would be more worried about the sustainability of the environment because after all if the physical resources aren’t there than we have no economy! and no tax cuts. Everyone talks about crime, how bad things are … by the way every academic agrees that mandatory sentences does nothing. Oh just in case anyone’s wondering, I’ve been disappointed with everyone campaign… I grudgingly voted!!

Comment/commentaire by derik 01.18.06 @ 3:07 pm

Time for those left leaning Liberals to strategically vote NDP. Come on guys, turn about is fair play!!

Comment/commentaire by PJ 01.19.06 @ 10:41 am

Hey Derik, at one time all the academics agreed the world was flat….Think about your comments! If a family member of yours was violated sexually, wouldn’t you want him to serve his full sentence? At least the conservatives are willing to give that a try while the liberals let loose on the streets the child molesters and rapists. I have kids so that is the most important issue to me! Put the criminals where they belong!!!!

Comment/commentaire by Alec 01.19.06 @ 11:44 am

Its obvious the Conservatives are going to form the next Federal Government. The question is whether it will be a majority or a minority. Either way, don’t we all want an MP from Oshawa on the winning side? We may benefit more from an MP on the winning side. Makes common sense!

Comment/commentaire by Steve 01.19.06 @ 5:34 pm

Colin Carrie is the best for the job at hand! Oshawa had the NDP for more than a decade, then the Liberals for more than a decade! I strongly feel that Colin deserves a chance to do more for Oshawa! Although only in office for 18 months he has done more than the Liberals did in the 12 years before him and will be able to do more after January 23 with the Conservatives forming the Government! The NDP are a waste of time! and have no chance of doing anything for Oshawa, because Jack Layton will never be Prime Minister! Oshawa only has one choice and that is to vote for Colin Carrie on Monday, January 23!!

Scotie

Comment/commentaire by scottie 01.21.06 @ 9:00 am

Sid, You’ll just never stop. How many times can someone get rejected and still keep running. We should have a law. You must love being at the trough. Get a real job.

Comment/commentaire by domenic 01.21.06 @ 12:08 pm

Sid Ryan is the Tories secret weapon. Sid is like the bad luck charm in Vegas Casino. Guaranteed to lose.

Sid, even in a Union riding you continue to Lose.
How sad.

Comment/commentaire by domenic 01.21.06 @ 12:12 pm

Oda stands up for Auto Industry
Ms. Oda clearly states the Conservative record and their plans to support the automotive and allied industries in the future.

A Conservative government will:

Enable better cross-border trade through the Windsor-Detroit corridor by investing in transportation infrastructure and dedicate a Senior Cabinet Minister;
Ensure that the Canadian automotive industry gets a fair trade deal in our international trade relationships with countries like Korea and Japan;
Offer research tax credits and consumer incentives for buying lower emission vehicles;
Work toward harmonizing regulations with the U.S. to reduce the regulatory burden placed on the industry;
Create training partnerships and apprenticeship programs;
Encourage investment in the Canadian automotive industry by promoting our skilled labour force and educational and health care advantages;
Lower taxes for auto workers and their families, lower the cost of buying a Canadian car by reducing the GST to 5% and, eliminate the capital tax.

Ms. Oda has personally stood up in the House of Commons, on several occasions, to demand that the government provide safety and stability to the auto workers of Durham.

Ms. Oda has also played an integral role in developing the auto policies of the Conservative Party, as a member of the Conservative Automotive Caucus.

“The current Liberal government has had 13 years to make good on its promises to the Canadian automotive industry and they have failed miserably”, says Oda. “Conversely, the Conservative Party of Canada has a strong auto strategy, we have the political will to work for Canadian industry and our constituents - to whom we are accountable, and we will continue to make this pillar of Canadian industry a top priority, long after this election campaign is over.”

Comment/commentaire by kent 01.22.06 @ 1:00 am

Colin Carrie is a member of the Canadian church they have over 15 conservative candidates running this election that we have been able to identify.

This is a faciest organisation. He is seen in a photo with Barry Devolin in Haliburton county in Ontario last year at a Christian church that believes that only white English speaking Canadians are Canadian and is basically a cult with its claws established in business from Northern Ontario to Northern BC

Do your research yourself only Anti Racist Action has any decent info on this well hidden organisation that we have been able to find online.

We are targeting only three of these candidates including your candidate because the conservatives have the others in the bag.

Please vote to defeat Colin Carrie .

Comment/commentaire by Drew 01.22.06 @ 12:02 pm

Earlier today CBC Radio’s “Sunday Morning” called Oshawa Riding “Canada’s closest race.”

I’ll ignore the partisan sniping and simply remind readers and voters that Oshawa is listed above as “too close to call”. Below are some comments aimed at those who are confused by strategic voting.

Canadian Autoworkers (CAW) President Buzz Hargrove’s conditional support for a minority Liberal government has doubtless confused many Oshawa-area voters.

Hargrove has asked that Canadians to vote for whichever NDP or Liberal candidate stands the best chance of victory on a riding-by-riding basis.

Some have denounced this form of strategic voting. They claim that denying a vote to the candidate whose ideology most closely matches your own is a denial of your political conscience.

So what’s an Oshawa voter to do?

One way to assess your upcoming vote is to take a look at what happened in Oshawa during the June 2004 election. On Election Day 2004 the CBC conducted a poll of Oshawa riding’s voters and what they discovered will be a surprise to many.

The poll, conducted for CBC and Radio Canada by the Environics Research Group, surveyed Canadians in five ridings across the country on their views of how the political system is working.

The survey results showed that 30 percent of Oshawa riding respondents – representing almost one-third of voters – selected their candidate because they “want to make sure that some other party doesn’t win.” This is a near-perfect illustration of the ‘strategic’ voting that Buzz Hargrove supports.

More surprising was the fact that 34 percent of those responding to the survey described themselves as “someone who seriously considered voting New Democrat but are now voting Liberal” because they are “concerned that the Conservatives might form a government” and they “want to try to stop that from happening.”

This means over a third of Oshawa electors switched their vote from NDP to Liberal only to block the Conservatives from a possible win. But what actually happened was the anti-Conservative vote was divided between the NDP candidate and the third-place Liberal.

This divided ‘anti-Conservative’ vote had the effect of catapulting the Conservatives to victory by a mere .8 percent of the total vote – 463 out of a total of 47,527 votes.

The 34 percent of voters who went from NDP to Liberal witnessed the very event they were trying to prevent – a Conservative victory in their riding.

So here we have a model of the absurdity of strategic voting: its consequences are unpredictable, and in some cases the opposite outcome occurs.

The lesson here is voters should ignore the pundits, weigh their options and choose the party and candidate they really support. Strategic voting rarely works out as planned.

Comment/commentaire by RNR 01.22.06 @ 2:42 pm

I feel Colin Carrie has represented me well and I’m voting to re-elect him. As for the Conservative party, I really liked their policy- a-day campaign. Other parties tried to elict my vote based on an emotional response to manipulate me to vote against the Conservatives. But they never took the time to tell me why I should vote for their party.

Comment/commentaire by Lonny 01.22.06 @ 3:27 pm

I don’t know why there is a post about Bev Oda on this page… she’s not running in Oshawa. I was an undecided voter until I listened to the Sunday Edition this morning on the CBC. I was leaning towards voting for Colin, but he sounded so plastic, not answering the questions and talking like a partisan robot hack. Furthermore, the more he explained the Tory tax platform the more obvious it became that it was extremely favourable towards the rich instead of the poor. I really liked Sid Ryan, he answered the questions and demonstrated the accomplishments that 19 NDP MPs had did in the last Parliament, which was much more than what the 99 CPC MPs did.

Comment/commentaire by Mary 01.22.06 @ 6:26 pm

I’m utterly disgusted with that pathetic union leader. Congrats to the Conservatives I suppose, but that ass needs to keep his mouth somewhere where he won’t be tempted to use it!

Comment/commentaire by A. Voter 01.23.06 @ 10:03 pm

Interesting to read…even though the election is over (and ran just as I expected!).

Most of Ontario that see themselves as “right wing” are, in reality, best described as “neo-populists!” They dislike the poor (we’re lazy, slovenly and keeping us is too expensive!) but also feel the same way about the rich (greedy, abuse the working class, cheat them on gasoline prices and waste their (”our!”) money on expensive toys.

They are regular readers of the Toronto Sun (the male contingent mainly because of the Sunshine Girls…) vaguely racist until they have a few beers, when “vaguely” suddenly changes to “solidly” after their thin veneer of political correctness melts away…and are all for “law and order” (unless the police start enforcing laws that might apply to them, like the HTA!). They are also solidly anti-intellectual (”them colleges are full of REDS!”) and dream of going back to the days of “Leave It To Beaver,” when gas was cheap, h*m*s*x**ls stayed in the closet where they belonged, and a man’s neighbours were probably the same race HE was and thus could be trusted!

They want low taxes (”Waddya want to waste money on transit for…I got my Chev in my garage!”), the return of the death penalty (”Serve them d*mn n****rs right!”) and a curfew for “young” people (meaning about twenty years younger than THEY are!)…among other things. What they would like to see, in fact (if they knew enough history) would be Indentured Servitude for all “welfare bums,” “cripples” and “dried-up old f**ts” that live off THEIR taxes! Oddly enough, most of them are either union members or were before they retired…but they’re universally against “Them
$%$#%@! unions!” (theirs, of course, doesn’t count!)

And they haven’t figured out yet that “conservative” politicians hang out with the rich folks they hate, and then pass laws for the benefit of “Bay Street,” not “The rest of the guys at the plant!”

What they actually want is a successful Holodeck…

Steven C. Barr
Oshawa, Ont’o.

Comment/commentaire by Steven C. Barr 10.11.06 @ 8:19 pm

PM Collin Carrie sent pamplets out to people in Oshawa to speak to him or a visit to one’s home. I had to go away, and to my surprise he called me.I was shocked and very happy,I even phoned NFLD and told my sister.My greatest moment of my life was ruined shortly afterwards as a major tropical storm hit the island and the prime minster made an effort to stop and see the damage it had caused. I was laughing at Williams he so insulted,but that is not what I wanted to say. I was and still am as I thought Mr. Harper was differant from the rest of the phonies in our goverament I thought he would help my people get back a little of what they had instead a few days later I read NFLD was screwed again.I see now that what we were told from the day I was born that politicans are all liars.By the way I was born on the day NFLD joined the mainland and now I know why my father hated them all. Liars all of you, none of your polos have done any thing but steal from us and you will always do the oppasite of what you promise. I will say no more as I know from history pass what you people are capable of. Rita

Comment/commentaire by Rita Risby 08.16.07 @ 10:22 am



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