The NDP Candidate, Paul Dewar, should squeak past Richard Mahoney in this riding, for several reasons.

One, the NDP incumbent, Ed Broadbent, has coattails even though he is not running again, and Paul Dewar has a strong political machine backing him, arguably stronger and certainly more polished than the sincere EdHeads that came before.

Two, the stink of being a Martin crony is devestating to Richard Mahoney.

Three, Conservatives are parking their votes with the NDP candidate to defeat the Liberal, the NDP campaign makes this choice tolerable to urban conservatives. Keith Fountain is a decent candidate and a good person, but he’s cannon fodder.

Four, the Greens are imploding as the ethics of their leader, a neocon who took over the party in order to win federal funding, becomes clear.

There was a strong NDP presence here long before Broadbent ever vied for this constituency, and the present poisoned atmosphere in the Liberal party will compensate the New Democrats with left-leaning Liberals, at least for this vote. The diminished visibility of the CAP, Communists, and ML’s will also be of some assistance to them here.

The fact that the NDP proved surprisingly effective in a minority government scenerio will help them here and elsewhere this time around.

From the Ottawa Citizen editorial board Jan.8: “If lawn signs are any indication, Mr Mahoney may well be on his way to his second defeat in Ottawa to a New Democrat.”

The Conservative party has not been cannon fodder but has run a surprisingly strong and visible campaign even if they are destined for a comfortable third place trailing. New polls have the NDP also has been getting positive movement in Ontario. Both can only serve to hurt the Liberals in this riding by shaving off support on both sides.

Paul Dewar should benifit to a large degree from the continuing scandles that seem to be hounding the Liberal Party at every turn of the road.This tired,old and stale party is finally paying for all it’s misdeeds in the past and it should cost yhem dearly in this riding.

Richard Mahoney loses if he wins, wins if he loses. He wins the election, he’s in the back benches behind his chum, Paul Martin - a convenient location to view the inevitable Liberal knives to be plunged into Mr. Martin. He loses, well he goes back being a well-paid developer-friendly lawyer and won’t have to deal with the slaughter-to-be.

I went to the candidate debate on Wednesday. Wow

Dewar looks like a winner. He’s smooth and articulate and he even gives tough answers, including about a local issue, the placement of a parole office near a downtown school. It’s tough to say “you’re wrong” to a bunch of yuppie parents, and do it in a way that they can accept, tough to do, especially in a campaign but he did it. That impressed me. This guy may well be a future NDP leader.

Mahoney, on the other hand, was begging for his job, promising to “work really hard”, because “I’ve wanted to be your MP for a long time now”.
Uh, yeah. And I want a pony.

In fact, his waffleous reasons for wanting to be an MP smacked entirely of power for power’s sake, and is exactly the same as that of Paul Martin. His body language is the same. And he was regularly bood by the crowd, despite the best efforts of the Liberal cheering section, which for some reason all were fratboy-looking white men. Even the Conservatives had some women in their group, while the NDP supporters, scattered in the crowd, was mostly female and young.

Conservative supporters, vote NDP. Michael makes a very good point. Dewar seems like a great person and I’d be proud to have him as a MP. So put your vote for the NDP and stop the Liberals. We should focus on the common enemy.

It’s unfortunate that one of the Green party’s best candidates is running in this riding. Chernushenko would have had a chance in some ridings with weaker candidates. It would be nice to see some Greens in the house, and Chernushenko would be a good place to start. I’m surprised that Mahoney still has so much support. It’s not that he’s a bad guy, but let’s be honest for a moment, Liberals need to go and Paul Martin’s friends need to go with him.

If Mahoney holds on to his vote from the last election he will take this race in a squeaker.

The sign war bewteen the two front runners is relatively even and the Liberals have manged to maintain their momentum in this riding despite sagging national numbers.

This riding has become a three way race with the conservative running on the national campaigns coat tails and the Green candidate likely to get 10% of the votes in election. Cherneshenko is a serious candidate with even more name recognition than the NDP candidate and has made inroads in NDP strongholds in the riding. Traditional Tory areas (re 1999 provincial election)will return to the Tories

Any thoughts of a Tories for the NDP in this election are out the window with numbers where they are and I suspect voter turnout will drop to the traditional 68% this time around without the presence of Saint Ed in the race. Who that helps is anybody’s guess.

Early in this campaign, I would have predicted a return to the Liberals (boo).

Happily, the NDP’s fortunes have been greatly improving in Ontario, giving the ironically-named Dewar a chance to proudly continue the glorious Ed Broadbent legacy.

The all candidates meeting at the Glebe Community Centre showed three trends within this riding:
1) Mahoney and Fountain were too pre-occupied sniping at each other to answer the questions within the 90 seconds allowed, the two losers of the meeting,
2) Dewar came into the meeting with big crowd support and retained it throughout with his “hometown boy” sincerity, held his own,
3) Chrenushenko had little support at the beginning but built a following on sensible and thorough responses on all of the issues raised. At the end ot the meeting the Greens had as much applause as the NDP! The winner of the main party candidates.

The most surprising addition to this riding is that of the Marijuana Party candidate John Akpata. Charismatic, articulate, speak-from-the-heart responses without any worries about losing supporters, he won the day. If he were to run as an independant, he’d be a serious contender.

We could be surprised with Chernushenko coming out the winner… He really has gained alot of support in the last bit of this campain. In addition, he was the most visable candidate on Carleton Campus (which falls in the Ottawa Centre riding) and may be picking up some support here.

If your goal is to stop the Tories, vote Green. If it is to stop the Liberals vote Green. Because we have a real chance to make history here.

We would be surprised with Cheruschenko if he did better than a fourth place finish! He is a strong candidate as far as the Green party goes but he is in a riding of strong candidates for stronger parties. The Greens have alot of signs out, but when it comes to election day their support is going to drift to other parties with the results somewhat competitive between the other parties a protest vote is less valuable.

NDP hold.

The cheerleaders for the NDP aside, this will be a tight three way race come election night. Expect Mahoney’s ground organization and name recognition to give him the edge on election day.

Numbers indicate an NDP slide, particularly in Eastern and Northern Ontario, and while the NDP organization in Ottawa Centre is strong, no one is immune to national trends except maybe Ed, and Paul Dewar is no Ed.

Even advance poll numbers in Ottawa Centre are down, despite national trends upward, a very bad sign for Dewar. As well, don’t expect Green numbers to drop this time, Cherneshenko will do very well, especially after the Citizen’s second endorsment in a row for the deputy leader of the Greens.

A poor call at the moment to say this riding will definitely go NDP. Must be all those e-mails from the teachers union convincing people (re. today’s citizen on the front page).

Liberal pick-up, one of the few this time around.

Mr. Dewar seems like a fine representative for Ottawa Centre. In addition, even if the Liberals regain their power after a Conservative minority government, it will be a Liberal party distanced from the Martinites and the Mahoneys.

At least a riding so interested in federal politics will get a tight race Monday night!

This will be Liberal.

A Liberal Party distanced from the Mahoneys?

Check out the following link:
http://richardmahoney.ca/en/

Cheers
Graydon

I’d really like to see Chernushenko win this riding. The Citizen has endorsed him for the second election in a row. They endorsed him over BROADBENT. He’s just the most qualified and deserves a chance.

If the NDP is Mahonio’s main threat, I think it is, why did he put on his donkey ears and stick in his donkey teeth and bray like a jackass about Harper stating the obvious that if the Senate, the Courts and the bureacrats have all been stackedby Liberals dor the past 13 years, they will be Liberal?
Mahoney made a jackass out of himself when screenshots showed his website being administered by a government employee. Give this jackass a carot or something. NDP hold.

I have to say I’m amazed by the sinage the Greens have this time. I can’t tell if it’s new support or it they just have money for signs, but in some areas of the Glebe, Old Ottawa South and Centretown, the Greens have more signs than any other party. That said, the best they’ll likely do is third. But, they could play spoiler. I know Broadbent supporters going Green this time, while it may be an attractive option to disenchanted Liberals or old PCs. I pick Mahoney to win, but Dewar to come close. Fountain will be an also-ran.

Dewar (aka Junior) is no Ed Broadbent. Mahoney by a nose.

Please let sanity prevail and lets have Keith Fountain take this riding. NDP offers a socialist agenda that could bankrupt the country, the Liberals offer scandal and while the Green has some interesting ideas I’m sorry I’m not willing to sacrifice my quality of life. Conservatives give the individual an option how their money is spent and that’s what we all should want. I’m sick and tired of finding the government’s hand in my wallet anytime I reach for it.