St. Catharines is going to be an interesting race on election night. We have incumbent Walt Lastewka running against two-term former city councillor and mayoral candidate Rick Dykstra. Lastewka has declined to campaign before January 2, so the only candidate active in this riding is the CPC’s Dykstra. Lastewka is not a very high-profile or popular MP, but Dykstra is favourably remembered from his time on city council. It will be a close race, probably down to a few hundred votes… Dykstra seems to have the momentum right now.

Ted Mouradian, the NDP’s candidate from 2004 has publicly endorsed Lastewka… and it was front page news. He is basically arguing that Burch can’t win, so voters should cast ballots strategically to stop Dykstra. Ironically, one of the reasons Mouradian ran for the NDP in 2004 was because Lastewka opposed same-sex marriage. Apparently, Lastewka and Mouradian have made a deal that Lastewka won’t support re-opening the debate should he be sent back to Ottawa. Originally, I figured Dykstra was the odds on favourite, but Mouradian’s intervention may just be enough to save Lastewka.

Walt Lastewka is one of the best constituency MP’s in the country, he isn’t well known in Ottawa but is very well known and quite popular on a personal level in St. Catharines. The real campaign hasn’t started yet and Dykstra & the Conservatives have peaked here. Give this one to Lastewka & the Liberals.

If Leo L truly believes that Walt Lastewka is one of the best MP’s in the country… he must be related. (Ooops! the cat’s out of the bag). After being the MP for so many years the best that Walt has ever been is “lap dog” to Scott Brison. In regards to committee work, Walt is the the most ineffective member of the Public Accounts Committee, unless of course you count the fact that he is Brison’s yes man. Funny how the only sponsorship money that came to the Niagara region was via Lastewka.

If Paul has any relevent comments or predictions to make about this riding I will be more than happy to hear them. Walt IS one of the best constituency MP’s in the country. An MP who has and will work for St. Catharines and has a record to prove it.

“Apparently, Lastewka and Mouradian have made a deal that Lastewka won’t support re-opening the debate should he be sent back to Ottawa”

dude, I would be interested to know where you heard this.

Leo L: You seem to have just gone to every Niagara-area riding and predicted a Liberal win. I find that highly unlikely, unless you know something the rest of us do not that indicates tha Conservatives are going to massively crash in Ontario. Furthermore, all of your analysis seems to be based on opinions about whether Lib or CPC incumbants are “good” or “bad” MPs. (notably, in your opinion all the Libs are good and all the Conservatives are bad).
Your predictions are simply out of touch.

This will be the closest of the 4 Niagara ridings. However, I don’t see Lastewka losing here. It’s basically a 2 horse race and unless the Liberals tank in Ontario (which isn’t totally out of the question) The Liberals will take St. Catharines.

It looks like Lasterwka is gaining momentum here. Dykstra was out and about before the holidays but now Lasterwka is out and about too. I haven’t seen the NDP out at all. Lasterwka is going to hang on here.

Lastewka doesn’t have enough momentum to get out of the parking lot, let alone win an election. Meanwhile, Dykstra is out almost every day with increasingly large volunteer teams and his hard work is starting to pay off - the undecided vote is moving towards him. Even some Liberal sign locations have been won over…

im proud to say i see plenty of blue up around st. catharines
what does lastewka have over dykstra other than being a dormant incumbent? nothing.
let’s ride the blue wave st. catharines

I’v started to see some more lastewka signs up around town, looks like they finally have their [stuff] together. Dykstra hasn’t wowed everybody that much yet. And unless he pulls a rabit out of his hat. I see the liberals holding on by a hair.

St. Catharines is about as bellwhether at the federal level as any riding can get. Here is a simple way to determine who will win St. Catharines on election night - if the Conservatives win nationally, they will win St. Catharines. If the Liberals (somehow magically, at this point) win nationally, they will win St. Catharines. St. Catharines will not be electing an opposition MP.

I went to a debate here the other night - and walt Lastewka was freaking out - He has lost his composure - He is clearly worried this time- BAsed on the current National and Provincial numbers - Dykstra will win - this is one of the top 10 Pick UPS for the Tories in Ontario

(edited) St.Catharines is a Liberal hangover and it will be tough to unseat Mr. Lastewka. Ironically, fellow citizens like Ted M., are good examples of the pragmatic conservatives they despise, with his display a “me first” voting, rather then sticking with and working for Mr. Burch, not to mention being Mr. Lastewka’s new best friend, and therefore making Mr. Lastewka’s, moderate and religious Liberal supporters wonder. (Another reason to for me to beware of any liberal “promise”.) If the last few lines confuse you then you too are trying to figure out the left in St.catharines. Things that make you say HUH??

Mr. Dykstra is really the only opportunity for a fresh start in St.Catharines for all of us except those of the extreme left. I will support him and hold him accountable for his work. I urge others to as well. It is time for a new way in Ottawa, starting in St.Catharines.

The partisan comments from the Conservatives are hilarious. I would guess that none of these individuals have ever actually met Lastewka in person or have talked at lengths with the man. Lastewka, probably much like the rest of the candidates, is a hard working and has done his best for St. Catharines. Undecided voters will seriously consider this, and likely not the obvious slanted and bias attacks from Conservative campaigners on this site.

(edited) Rick Dykstra claims about “Bringing integrity & federal money back to St. Catharines” are ridiculous. Lastewka is a good man and one of the few honest Liberals out there.

St.Catharines has a history of continually electing the same old tired MP’s or MPP’s (Jim Bradley) What has good ol Walt or even the Libs done for this city. The only gov’t to really do anything for the city was the NDP of Bob Rae. He moved the MTO to downtown st.Catharines. So tell me what is good ol Walt going to do in opposition. I intend to vote Conservative and sent Walt packing. Im sick of voting Liberal and getting nothing to show for it. For all those that wish to vote NDP but are scared to remember this. Each vote a party gets, gives them Federal money to spend to support their cause. Why do you think the green party got a million dollars for this election. No members in parliament, but 5% of the popular vote is money to their party, thus their causes.

Watched the debate at Brock University today and aside from Jim Fannon, Walt Lastewka looked the best.

I beleive in the opportunity for change not just for our nation but mostly for our city. Why have cities and communities around us flourished under a Liberal rule but St. Catharines become stagnant and even in a decline under the “watchful” eye of this “great” mp Lastewka? I believe the time has come to let someone who is eager to campaign for this city’s needs in Ottawa and not try to be a yes man for “thought to be some bodies”. I don’t care what happens to cities around me I care for what happens in the city I live. I will be voting for Rick Dykstra on the 23rd and so should you.

I have met Walt. Visited his office to discuss issues on several occasions, have corresponded many times as well. I know him to be a genuine man and respect him as such.

I also know that when the subject of raising the age of consent from 14 to 16 to protect our children, the answer was no.

When the subject of taxes was discussed, he believes that Ottawa know’s better how to spend our money then we do. (except I guess for sponserhip, gun control, etc)

When same sex marriage was discussed Walt was against it, for which I was thankful, but did not think it would lead to more maritial confusion, like polygamy….again wrong.

Liberal values are not Canadian values, whipped votes, liberal judiciary, making changes through means aside from parliament on the tough issues, that is not democracy or the Canadian way, it is the easy way to push “values” on people that they son’t want and feel powerless to change, breeding apathy. Talk about intolerance and marginalizing people. If all of us who don’t vote or think like a Liberal aren’t Canadian where will that leave us after the election if the conservatives win the hearts and votes of Canadians. To equate liberalism with being Canadian is one of the greatest offenses the Liberal party has committed, what an insult to all conservative Canadians.

Re, being partisan, of course we are partisan….why the name calling, is it wrong to speak of for our ideas?

I don’t see people saying Walt hasn’t worked hard. I think he has, but the only reasonable way to judge is by the results of the work. Saying he has done his best is also reasonable, but that doens’t put bread on the table, results do.

Is St.Catharines, better off then it was 12 years ago? In general I think not.
GM, Walt’s a place Walt was involved with and knows well has down sized substantially. This impact more people then any other business in Niagara.

Criminals shooting each other downtown in St.Catharines.

The downtown area is only getting worse to live and do business in.

What is new in major infrastructure?? We aren’t even maintaining where we were.

Healthcare is that better? Is the new hospital built, is it easier or harder to get competant high quality care here in Niagara, or do we head for Hamilton and T.O. whenever possible.

This is not personal to Walt. It is simply that the Liberal’s have been simply trying to maintain power, bereft of any positive action plan, maitain the status because change is scary to so many people.

It is time for leaders to lead again.

This will be a “very close race”.

Walt is somewhat inert as an active candidate, but it can’t be denied that he addressed the concerns of constituents on a personal level. Like Joe Reid (PC) during the 80’s, very little ‘active’ campaigning was required as the Liberals were swept in, and this might be Walt’s downfall this time around. (Incidentally, Mr. Reid was dumbfounded and saddened by the merger).

BUT the Conservatives can do a lot more damage in a shorter period of time - and that is not a risk worth taking. Anything from selling water rights, energy rights, healthcare and social safety net dismantling…the Conservatives can do it all. All the major parties have lobbyists, but none are closer to the interests that undermine Canadian values than those of the Conservative party.
here’s a brief but good example:
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=/2006/january/16/manager/&c=1

We might be very MAD at PM Martin (and justifiably so), but we’d be punishing OURSELVES if we gave the power to Stephen Harper. The ol’ ‘Cut off your nose to spite your face’ scenario.

And remember, based on the field of so-called ‘Conservative’ candidates, we’d really actually be voting for the Canadian Alliance / Reform Party. It’s not a new party, it’s a ‘make-over job done on the cheap’ like those home improvement shows.
It might appear different but you’ll still end up with all the structural damage that existed in the first place.

If we elect a Conservative government, then we are about to participate in all the fun of the culture-and-value war that our siblings to the south have been enjoying for the last few years.

Do you really want us to be a country diverted from dealing with real problems and issues and replace that with all the tiresome and potential ‘blue province-red province’ rhetoric that plays into the hands of making the electorate one that willingly converts itself into simpletons?

For those who choose to have ‘”favorable memories” of Dyktra’s time on city council, please share what these favorable actions were. St Catharines City Hall has done a poor poor job of achieving anything positive for it’s own citizens.

STOP HARPER. STOP DYKSTRA.

Let’s use this next period to reevaluate where Canada really wants to be come the next election. Perhaps then we’ll end up with a measured and thoughtful government implemented by an electorate that is well informed and does not vote in a reactionary method. (like my reaction against Dykstra)

Well I went to watch the debate at Brock on Tuesday, Fannon was the best of the 4 only because he is a better public speaker than everyone else. Burch made a major gaff when he went on about the Canadian Federation of Students and braged that they were the 1st link on his website. I guess he didn’t realise that Brock went through 2 bitter referendums to get out of the CFS so they could join CASA (Canadian Alliance of Student Associations). All Dykstra seemed to do was hammer away about corruption and brining money to St. Catharines. While Lastewka actually answered questions and named about 50 things that he had done for St. Catharines.

It seems to me that Walt Lastewka is a standard Liberal. The Liberals are arrogant, hypocritical, and ready to do anything to win. Last election Walt promised to vote against Same-sex marriage. This election he says, “the issue is over.” Great MPs don’t drop their ‘values’ to stay in power.
A Liberal postcard is being handed out to local university students with a picture of four stereotypical conservative voters and blurbs. One of the photos shows a middle aged woman saying “same-sex marriage is wrong!” Another shows an apparently Indian man saying, “why should I wait for Health-Care when I can pay top dollar.” The message at the bottom says ‘Vote. Because they will.’ This is a horribly prejudiced way to advertise a party. Is making fun of racial minorities and old Christian women the new way to win student’s votes? This is worse than the ridiculous ads about ’scary’ Mr. Harper. I’m sick of these negative, grasping, prejudiced liberals.

If everyone has a right to their opinions, I have a right to mine.

Canada – you’re not really going to elect a Conservative majority on Monday, are you? That’s a joke, right? I know you have a great sense of humor, and certainly a well-developed sense of irony, but this is no longer funny. Maybe it’s a new form of Canadian irony — reverse irony! OK, now I get it. First, you have the courage to stand against the war in Iraq — and then you elect a prime minister who’s for it. You declare gay people have equal rights — and then you elect a man who says they don’t. You give your native peoples their own autonomy and their own territory — and then you vote for a man who wants to cut aid to these poorest of your citizens. Wow, that is intense! Only Canadians could pull off a hat trick of humor like that. My hat’s off to you.

These are no ordinary times, and as you go to the polls on Monday, you do so while a man running the nation to the south of you is hoping you can lend him a hand by picking Stephen Harper because he’s a man who shares his world view. Do you want to help George Bush by turning Canada into his latest conquest? Is that how you want millions of us down here to see you from now on? The next notch in the cowboy belt? C’mon, where’s your Canadian pride?

Eric L. sure forgot to do his homework. Grad students at Brock are represented by the CFS. BUSU was never a member and despite undemocratically joined CASA without a referendum mandate… that said, dykstra will win. Young Liberals at Brock are handing pro same sex marriage flyers even though both Liberal MPs in Niagara voted against the legislation… pathetic.

The Conservatives will win this riding hands down. Bet the farm on it!! Lastewka is a washed up has been. He’s only looking to collect the fat pension we stupid Canadians allow our politicians to collect in amounts that are obscene.

Walt will pull this out. He’s got a great campaign team who will get out the liberal vote and he is well respected and well known around town.

Also, people are now becoming aware that Dykstra made 100g’s a year working in Mike Harris’ Conservative Government and that he is in fact still listed as a conservative lobbyist (based on the conservatives own accountability plan Dykstra shouldn’t even be a candidate!).

The conservatives will take the 2 niagara seats they already possess and nothing more on election day.

“(based on the conservatives own accountability plan Dykstra shouldn’t even be a candidate!).”

False. Read the platform.

It also seems that Lastewka has run out of his own ideas, and has decided that he too wants an economic plan for St. Catharines. Dykstra has been proposing this for months. Nice try Walt, but it’s not going to work.

The Liberal office appeared to sit empty for most of today… Walt’s going to be sent into a humiliating retirement on Monday night.

Tho I don’t particularly have anything against Walt (nor, for that matter, after 12 years, do I personally find I have any reason to vote FOR him), I really do think we need to rid ourselves of the liberal power cabal in Ottawa.

Frankly… I think that yet another Liberal mandate is WAYYYY scarier than anything the obviously dishonest and out-of-ideas Mr Martin is suggesting Harper will bring to us. This really is a case of my choosing the devil I don’t know because I am scared to death of what the one I DO know will continue to do to our nation. I will vote Conservative this election exactly for the reason Mr. Martin suggests… I will vote for Canada’s future, for it’s values, and for my children, rather than for known thieves and liars.

In reply to JS - Hmmm - Didn’t you or someone like you say the same when Bob Rae ended 4years of Liberal & 35 years of Corrupt Tory Rule. Then we were so thankful to end the incompetence by voting in The Mike Harris Regime… Or wait, I remember. The adored Brian Mulroney. And how he save the country by giving rise to Luciene Bouchard. Or better yet John Diefenbaker and the success of our aerospace industry.
Wonderful how history repeats itself.

I really want the Conservatives (I am a party member)to form a government, and support Stephen Harper, HOWEVER, for the good of St. Catharines, I will vote for Walt Lastewka. I voted and campaigned for the Alliance in 2000 and voted Conservatives in 2004, but Rick Dykstra is the weakest of the candidates my party has had here. He runs a campaign based on favours for friends and relatives (sound familiar? Sounds like Chretien). If you call his office during regular hours, you get answering machines which include “closed for holidays, reopening 28th”. This was on the 29th. My mother wanted to speak to him, and was told Dykstra would call her, but no one called, and his campaign people hardly knew anything about him. His website has all the great Harper policies, but what are Dykstra’s ideas? He’s not saying. About the website, it is “nice” to know when Harper, MacKay and others “were” here, but would be “nicer” to know that they’re “coming”. Even his “coming” events page has stuff from days ago. They promised mass-emails for the Harper rally, but I never got one. He sent literature to mailboxes in Welland riding, so his people don’t really know what they’re doing. Not surprising since his campaign is actually being run from Calgary. Randy Taylor Dumont and Leo Bonomi both ran a campaign that brought together a smallish group of St. Catharines Conservatives as a family, on the campaign trail and for events such as BBQs. Dykstra has brought together his family…a rich family that is out of touch with city people and more in touch with greenhouse operators on the edge of the boundaries. Walt Lastewka has worked hard, and stands up for his own beliefs against a Liberal motion…I really respect that. Dykstra does not run an affective campaign to keep this party member’s vote, so I am not convinced that he would be an affective MP. I’m sure that he will work for far-right evangelistic ideas, but that does nothing for St. Catharines or Canada. I am a Christian and a Conservative, but I’m voting for a Liberal.