with enough anger against liberals in january concerning RCMP probes, a bad final debate performance could give martin a very slim win in this riding of immense political importance for the liberals.

wonder how long Martin will hold his seat if his party looses - predict a by election soon here

Martin will win, but it will likely be a Pyrrhic victory.
the riding won’t go Bloc, not now, not for the forseeable future.
However, I agree with Mr Knapp that a by-election looms in the not-too-distant future, if Martin has to turn over the keys to 24 Sussex to Mr Harper.

Hey, the last guy that ran for the Bloc did not actually run a campaign as he was sure to loose. Now, May Chiu is actually running a campaign and people are pissed with Paul Martin. So she just may win. The conservatives will take votes from the liberals leaving the bloc with it’s support and even a bit more as their is a campaign done by the Bloc in Lasalle-Emard.

Thus Paul Martin may loose his seat.

The emergence of the Conservatives as a viable option open up the chance that Martin himself may be at risk. People will point out that the Tory gains were mostly outside of Montreal, however, while not in seat-contention in the region, the Conservatives, the Conservatives are at 15% in Montreal. So, while the Bloc has a definite ceiling - the Francophone vote - with Martin unlikely to be PM (or Liberal leader), the Liberals at half their 2004 levels in Quebec, and with very little for Duceppe to do except try to embarrass the Liberals, Lasalle-Emard may actually go Bloc.

MJL, your points are interesting, however, the Tories are taking support fom both the Bloc and the Liberals. Could well reduce the numbers for both, and still allow Martin to win.
I’d rather Martin win it than the separatist, since he will step down anyway shortly thereafter, and then we can actually get a Tory elected.

This is now a 3 way race.

Maybe the voters in this riding would be interested in knowing a bit about the Oil-for-food scandal, the Desmarais family, Maurice Strong, Power Corp and Paul Martin…

http://www.newsmax.com/archives/articles/2005/1/17/133225.shtml

Very interesting given the arrest this past week of South Korean businessman, Tongsun Park. I wonder how long it will before we learn of the connections? The Power Corp controlled BNP Paribas Bank, Cordex Petroleum run by Maurice Strong’s son , Cordex is partly owned by Paul Martin’s family company, The Canada Steamship Lines Group Inc.

I think it’ll make Adscam look like small potatoes.

Martin does not deserve to win! Get rid of him.

I do not understand your figures on the shift to use here, as compared, say, to the neighbouring ridings. In the neighbouring ones you input a modest Conservative uptick. In this one, it is massive by comparison. The rationale would appear to be a use of “judgment” so as to arrive at a result that sees Martin ahead of the BQ candidate. If you applied a similar formula to this riding as you have to its neighbours, you would have a horse-race between Martin and the BQ and the Conservatives back a good distance, but still making a respectable showing.

in 2004, martin = 56, bq = 30. this riding follows the provincial pattern for the LPC - about 90% of the loss, which as of right is down 14 (i.e. 90% of 14 = down 13). so martin is 56-13=44. this riding is below average for the bq - about 1.5 times the loss, which right now is down 2 (i.e. 1.5 x 2 = 3). however, the shift in support to the bq in montreal gives this riding a 5 pt boost. i.e. 30-3+5=32. hence martin=44, chiu=32.

Would be quite a sceen if Mr Martin lost his seat ,most likely that wont happen but I agree with William Knapp, by-election by 2007, unfortunately the seat will probably go BQ.

Martin has let the country down. He has been a major disappointment and should not be rewarded with a win. He has run a VERY bad campaign and so why would anyone vote for him. DO the RIGHT THING. Support Harper.

Liberal Win.

if the grits dont get offical oppo, martin will resign, and someone else (either the tories or the bloc) will take this riding.

As a federalist, I say vote BLOC. Get Dithers out of office.

Mr. Martin, I am absolutely embarassed by the way you are running your campaign. The depths to which you will stoop, out of sheer political desperation, are absolutely inappropriate. You show a total lack of integrity in the way you distort the truth to slander and malign your opponents. I’ve never seen anyone so deserving of getting thoroughly trounced at the polls. I hope the good people of Lasalle-Emard have the courage to turf you out on Monday night. Your arrogance makes Jean Chretien look humble.

I have been waiting for liberals to lose for a longtime specifically Mr. Martin.
with a BQ candidate, MAY CHIU , who is 8 months pregnant and running a better race than the last candidate things might change.
That would be a great message to all Canadians and to all Canadian politician that we do not support liars and deceivers.
so let’s go BQ LASSALE!please!!!!

If you’re a federalist, vote TORY, and put martin out of his misery. last thing we need is another obstructionist SEPARATIST…. there;s enough of those already.

come on neal you of all people know the tories are a flash in the pan.Liberal is the way to got re fighting separtism Remember the mulroney years when you guys were in bed with them. Wasn’t it the pc party that helped found the bloc.

The latest tyrades today by Martin sums up his vision fo Canada: get into power at all costs, even if it means spewing outright ling fearmongering, and stay there at the cost of Canada. Vote hm out…

Paul Martin… manipulative, lying, vicious, decieving, corrupt, tax-evading, divisive, power-hungry, socio-path. I’m being kind with my words. I look forward to the history books describing him many years from now with contempt, disdain and pathos.

I’m a memeber of the Canadian Forces stationed in Ontario. We have the option of keeping our voting district from where we’re from or changing to where we’re posted. I’ve kept mine from LaSalle. I took GREAT pleasure voting for the Conservatives on the same day that the story about “soldiers in our cities” broke in the national papers!! I only wish that, one day, Martin might call upon me to save his home during an ice storm or flood ….!!!

I guess Mr. Martin, in light of what you did to Mr. Chretien, what goes around really does come around! It is Karma, and you deserve it. Still for the country’s sake I am hoping for a Liberal Minority. Please just back away and allow a change in Liberal Leadership very soon!

I think I know why Mr. Martin looks so uptight these last few days.

He has spent almost his ENTIRE POLITICAL LIFE jockeying and positioning himself to get to the Prime Minister’s office not caring about who was stepped on.

And now, almost at the end, when thinking about the “legacy” he is going to leave, reality is smacking him like a freight train.

In his quite moments you can here him muttering
” My God…. I’m a Joe Clark”

Mr. Martin is not a Quebecor. He is politician that believes that he personally can prosper by exploiting Quebecors. He is an individual that lacks integrity and ethics. Twelve years of Liberal reign has created too many wealthy Liberals and too little money into the hands of Quebecors. On election day, we need to stand up for change and stand up for Quebec and vote Conservative!!!!! Vive le Quebec!!!

I’ve never found myself cheering for a Bloc candidate before because I believe in Quebec playing a leading role within Canada. However, I’d make an exception in this riding for the sheer joy of seeing Mr. Hypocrite Arrogance get set on the sidelines in his own riding. Not likely to happen, but I can dream!

Wow!

The BLOQ candidate May Chiu is showing polling within 7% of Martin!

You go girl !!

Forgive me Lord. ;)

I would be great to have a federalist in contention here, but the thought of a DOUBLE humiliation for Mr. Dithers gives me such a warm fuzzy feeling.

May! May! May! May!

Je ne comprend pas ce que les gens peuves bien trouver a Paul Martin. Un gars qui se dit d’ètre fière d’ètre canadien, qu’il participe a l’enrichissement du Canada. Ce gars la une bonne partis de sa vie avait une entreprise avec un siège social dans un autre pays pour profiter de l’évasion fiscale, en d’autre mot pour ne pas payer d’impot, c’est a dire ne pas participer a l’enrichissement collectif de notre pays, il se présente comme notre premier ministre le gars qui est supposer être représentatif de tout les Canadien.

I think paul should be kicked out of here