FINAL
2006 ELECTION SEAT PROJECTIONS

DOWNLOAD FINAL SEAT PROJECTIONS (800kb PDF)

Welcome to the democraticSPACE.com election projection model. This model proved quite accurate for the 2004 Election, predicting that the Liberals would win 131 seats (they actually won 135), 102 seats for the Conservatives (they won 99), 19 seats for the NDP (they won 19), and 56 seats for the Bloc Quebecois (they won 54). The model has 4 steps:

1) it adjusts each party’s support in each riding proportionally to provincial changes
2) it adjusts each riding to account for variations between regions within provinces
3) it then accounts for concentrations of party support within these sub-regions
4) it makes an adjustment to account for candidates.

The seat projections based on a 5-poll rolling average. The projection model requires the use of regional data, thus only comprehensive polls are used in the projections. The source data is the regular national polling conducted by the following firms: Strategic Counsel, SES, Ipsos-Reid, Pollara, EKOS, Environics, Decima, and Leger. Averaging 5 polls is necessary to ensure an acceptable margin of error in the regional data.

For a detailed explanation, please see “HOW IT WORKS” (146kb PDF)

Click the province below for riding-by-riding projections.

	NATIONAL		NORTHWEST TERRITORIES
	ALBERTA		NUNAVUT
	BRITISH COLUMBIA		ONTARIO
	MANITOBA		PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
	NEW BRUNSWICK		QUEBEC
	NEWFOUNDLAND & LABRADOR		SASKATCHEWAN
	NOVA SCOTIA		YUKON