ONTARIO SEAT PROJECTIONS

The following are the seat projections based on a 5-poll rolling average. The projection model requires the use of regional data, thus only comprehensive polls are used in the projections. The source data is the regular national polling conducted by the following firms: Strategic Counsel, SES, Ipsos-Reid, Pollara, EKOS, Environics, Decima, and Leger. Averaging 5 polls is necessary to ensure an acceptable margin of error in the regional data.

To learn about how the model works, please see “HOW IT WORKS” (146kb PDF)

GRAPH
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Note:

TABLE
Click on date below for riding-by-riding projections (280kb PDF)

	LPC	CPC	NDP
JAN 22, 2006	49	44	13
JAN 21, 2006	52	41	13
JAN 19, 2006	48	44	14
JAN 18, 2006	46	45	15
JAN 17, 2006	37	50	19
JAN 16, 2006	31	54	21
JAN 15, 2006	36	50	20
JAN 14, 2006	34	53	19
JAN 13, 2006	39	50	16
JAN 12, 2006	39	53	14
JAN 11, 2006	40	55	11
JAN 10, 2006	44	50	12
JAN 9, 2006	46	46	14
JAN 7, 2006	44	42	20
JAN 6, 2006	49	43	14
JAN 2, 2006	55	41	10
DEC 31, 2005	60	37	9
DEC 26, 2005	63	34	9
DEC 21, 2005	66	31	9
DEC 16, 2005	63	34	9
DEC 10, 2005	72	27	7
DEC 9, 2005	70	28	8
DEC 8, 2005	60	35	11
DEC 3, 2005	58	34	14
DEC 2, 2005	56	37	13
NOV 29, 2005	57	36	13
NOV 28, 2005	58	34	14
NOV 26, 2005	62	29	15
NOV 18, 2005	61	29	16
NOV 10, 2005	61	29	16
OCT 31, 2005	71	23	12
OCT 20, 2005	77	18	11
OCT 14, 2005	77	20	9
OCT 3, 2005	82	19	5
SEP 20, 2005	78	20	8
JUN 28, 2004	75	24	7