2006 CANDIDATES
Phil Angelides
Arnold Schwarzenegger
Peter Camejo
Art Olivier
Janice Jordan
Edward Noonan
Mary Carey
George Fellows
James Harris
Eric Mahoney
Aaron Proctor
Daniel Sage
Elisha Shapiro

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
NOV 4		53.5	40.5	6.3	+/- 1.7	3555
OCT 30		51.6	39.8	8.6	+/- 1.5	4331

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
NOV 4	SURVEY USA	53.5	38.4	8.1	+/- 4.2	553
OCT 30	FIELD POLL	54.4	36.7	9.1	+/- 3.0	1092
OCT 28	RASMUSSEN	55.2	41.7	3.1	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 27	ZOGBY/WSJ	49.7	41.9	8.5	+/- 3.1	1000
OCT 25	SURVEY USA	55.6	37.4	7.1	+/- 4.4	507
SEP 24	FIELD POLL	51.8	40.0	8.2	+/- 3.6	739
SEP 07	RASMUSSEN	50.5	41.9	7.5	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 05	ZOGBY/WSJ	47.6	41.0	11.3	+/- 3.1	1000
AUG 23	PPIC	53.6	38.1	8.3	+/- 2.2	2001
AUG 22	RASMUSSEN	49.5	43.3	7.2	+/- 4.4	500

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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