2006 CANDIDATES
Rod Blagojevich
Judy Baar Topinka
Rich Whitney
Mark McCoy
Randy Stufflebeam
Marvin Koch
Angel Rivera

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
NOV 1		39.0	48.4	12.6	+/- 1.8	2959
OCT 29		36.3	50.1	13.6	+/- 1.7	3236
OCT 11		37.9	54.3	7.7	+/- 1.9	2629

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
NOV 1	RASMUSSEN	38.9	46.3	14.7	+/- 4.4	500
NOV 1	SURVEY USA	38.5	46.9	14.6	+/- 4.7	434
OCT 31	MASON DIXON	44.0	48.4	7.7	+/- 3.9	625
OCT 29	CHICAGO TRIBUNE	33.3	50.6	16.1	+/- 4.0	600
OCT 26	RESEARCH 2000	39.6	49.0	11.5	+/- 3.5	800
OCT 22	SURVEY USA	37.0	47.8	15.2	+/- 4.1	578
OCT 22	DAILY HERALD	34.8	52.2	13.0	+/- 4.0	603
OCT 16	ZOGBY/WSJ	35.9	51.1	13.0	+/- 3.8	655
SEP 19	SURVEY USA	42.9	49.5	7.7	+/- 4.3	529
SEP 12	CHICAGO SUN-TIMES	30.6	65.9	3.5	+/- 4.9	400
SEP 10	CHICAGO TRIBUNE	39.3	53.6	7.1	+/- 4.0	600
SEP 07	RASMUSSEN	39.6	52.7	7.7	+/- 4.4	500

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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