2006 CANDIDATES
John Baldacci
Chandler E. Woodcock
Pat LaMarche
Bruce Fleming
Alex Hammer
Barbara Merrill
Phillip Morris Napier

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
NOV 4		33.4	44.7	21.9	+/- 1.8	2872
OCT 29		35.4	46.8	17.8	+/- 1.9	2778
SEP 18		44.7	50.9	4.4	+/- 1.9	2529

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
NOV 4	SURVEY USA	30.3	36.4	33.3	+/- 3.9	638
OCT 29	RASMUSSEN	35.2	51.1	13.6	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 23	CRITICAL INSIGHTS	28.1	47.2	24.7	+/- 4.0	600
OCT 22	SURVEY USA	34.7	42.9	22.4	+/- 3.9	634
OCT 17	RASMUSSEN	40.0	48.4	11.6	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 26	SURVEY USA	40.2	45.4	14.4	+/- 4.2	544
SEP 18	RASMUSSEN	45.9	51.8	2.4	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 14	WCSH	48.2	49.4	2.4	+/- 4.4	500
AUG 17	RASMUSSEN	42.5	49.4	2.3	+/- 4.4	500
JUL 21	STRATEGIC MARKETING	33.3	58.3	8.3	+/- 4.9	401
JUL 10	SURVEY USA	50.0	47.7	2.3	+/- 628	xxx

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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