Libertarian
Constitution
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Peace & Freedom
Marijuana
Socialist
Socialist Workers
Socialist Equality
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Liberty Union Peace
Mountain
MN Independence
2006 CANDIDATES
Mike Hatch
Tim Pawlenty
Ken Pentel
Peter Hutchinson
| DATE 1 |  |
|
|
|
MOE 2 | S 3 |
| NOV 1 | 44.2 | 48.7 | 7.1 | +/- 1.8 | 3037 | |
| OCT 28 | 44.3 | 48.6 | 7.1 | +/- 1.8 | 3037 | |
| OCT 16 | 46.0 | 48.1 | 5.9 | +/- 1.6 | 3559 |
| DATE 1 | POLLSTER | |
|
|
MOE 2 | S 3 |
| NOV 1 | RASMUSSEN | 45.9 | 48.0 | 6.1 | +/- 4.4 | 500 |
| OCT 28 | U MINNESOTA | 41.9 | 48.4 | 9.7 | +/- 3.8 | 663 |
| OCT 27 | RASMUSSEN | 46.2 | 47.6 | 6.2 | +/- 3.6 | 750 |
| OCT 27 | MASON-DIXON | 45.7 | 47.8 | 6.5 | +/- 3.9 | 625 |
| OCT 27 | ST. CLOUD STATE | 40.9 | 52.3 | 6.8 | +/- 4.4 | 499 |
| OCT 25 | RASMUSSEN | 46.3 | 47.4 | 6.3 | +/- 4.4 | 500 |
| OCT 16 | ZOGBY/WSJ | 46.8 | 46.9 | 6.3 | +/- 3.1 | 1000 |
| OCT 11 | STAR TRIBUNE | 41.1 | 51.1 | 7.8 | +/- 3.4 | 818 |
| OCT 4 | RASMUSSEN | 46.9 | 51.0 | 2.0 | +/- 4.4 | 500 |
| SEP 27 | SURVEY USA | 47.4 | 46.3 | 6.3 | +/- 3.9 | 616 |
| SEP 20 | MASON-DIXON | 48.8 | 45.3 | 5.8 | +/- 3.9 | 625 |
NOTES
1 Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
2 Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
3 Sample size.
4 Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.
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