2006 CANDIDATES
Ted Kulongoski
Ron Saxton
Joe Keating
Richard Morley
Mary Starrett

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
OCT 31		44.9	50.3	4.9	+/- 1.7	3158
SEP 28		43.5	51.3	5.2	+/- 1.7	3500

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
OCT 31	OREGONIAN	41.8	49.5	8.8	+/- 4.0	600
OCT 28	RASMUSSEN	44.8	52.0	3.1	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 27	ZOGBY/WSJ	48.1	48.8	3.1	+/- 3.5	800
OCT 24	RILEY	42.4	55.3	2.4	+/- 4.6	445
OCT 16	ZOGBY/WSJ	45.4	48.5	2.2	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 28	RASMUSSEN	45.7	51.1	2.2	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 18	RASMUSSEN	43.7	48.3	2.3	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 5	ZOGBY/WSJ	43.0	50.8	6.2	+/- 3.1	1000
AUG 21	ZOGBY/WSJ	44.7	51.2	4.1	+/- 3.1	1000
AUG 17	RASMUSSEN	39.8	55.7	4.5	+/- 4.4	500

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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