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Texas

2006 CANDIDATES
Chris Bell
Rick Perry
James Werner
Richard Friedman
Carole Keeton Strayhorn
James Dillon

ROLLING 5-POLL AVERAGE 4
DATE 1 MOE 2 S 3
NOV 2 39.2 26.3 34.5 +/- 1.6 3592
OCT 16 38.9 23.2 37.9 +/- 1.6 3864

INDIVIDUAL POLLS 4
DATE 1 POLLSTER MOE 2 S 3
NOV 2 SURVEY USA 38.8 22.4 38.8 +/- 4.2 557
OCT 27 ZOGBY/WSJ 38.9 30.5 30.5 +/- 3.1 1000
OCT 26 ZOGBY 41.3 23.9 34.8 +/- 3.1 1003
OCT 23 RASMUSSEN 37.9 26.3 35.8 +/- 4.4 500
OCT 23 SURVEY USA 37.1 26.8 36.1 +/- 4.2 532
OCT 16 ZOGBY/WSJ 40.0 27.9 14.0 +/- 3.1 1000
OCT 3 DALLAS MORNING NEWS 44.7 17.6 37.6 +/- 3.4 838
SEP 25 ZOGBY/WSJ 36.2 24.5 39.4 +/- 3.1 1000
SEP 18 SURVEY USA 35.7 23.5 40.8 +/- 4.2 536
AUG 31 RASMUSSEN 36.3 19.8 44.0 +/- 4.4 500

NOTES
1 Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
2 Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
3 Sample size.
4 Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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3 Comments/commentaires
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I did some searching on this one as the “oth” polls were very high. I found that both Richard Friedman and Carole Keeton Strayhorn polled very well, and in some cases, ahead of Bell the Democrat. Friedman is an Independent and a country-music “star”, while Strayhorn is a Republican who decided to run as an Independent. I thought I’d point that out in case anyone ehse here was curious like I was.

Comment/commentaire by Nick J Boragina 10.22.06 @ 4:51 pm

They should probably be considered separately as both Friedman and Strayhorn have about equal chances to Bell of winning.

Comment/commentaire by Tom 10.23.06 @ 5:55 am

Tom — yes, Friedman and Strayhorn should be broken out separately. Given they are collectively still less than Perry, it is clear that Perry will be re-elected.

Comment/commentaire by democraticspace 11.06.06 @ 9:38 am



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