2006 CANDIDATES
Jim Pederson
Jon Kyl
Mark Mack

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
NOV 2		52.3	44.1	3.6	+/- 1.7	3254
OCT 27		52.9	44.2	2.9	+/- 1.8	3046
OCT 16		53.8	43.8	2.5	+/- 1.7	3259
SEP 25		53.3	44.6	2.1	+/- 1.6	3854

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
NOV 2	SURVEY USA	54.6	41.2	3.1	+/- 4.1	560
NOV 2	MASON-DIXON	52.7	44.1	3.2	+/- 3.9	625
OCT 31	DAILY STAR	49.5	44.1	4.3	+/- 4.9	400
OCT 27	ZOGBY/WSJ	52.7	45.2	2.0	+/- 3.8	650
OCT 22	ASU	51.6	45.1	4.4	+/- 3.1	1019
OCT 16	SURVEY USA	50.5	45.3	4.2	+/- 4.5	474
OCT 16	N. ARIZONA U	58.3	39.3	2.4	+/- 4.9	403
OCT 15	RASMUSSEN	53.7	44.2	2.1	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 25	ZOGBY/WSJ	52.3	45.6	2.1	+/- 3.1	1000
SEP 24	ASU/KAET	55.1	42.7	2.2	+/- 3.3	882
SEP 18	RASMUSSEN	54.0	42.9	2.2	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 18	SURVEY USA	51.6	46.2	3.3	+/- 4.5	472
SEP 11	ZOGBY/WSJ	52.5	45.4	2.1	+/- 3.1	1000

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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