2006 CANDIDATES
Claire McCaskill
Jim Talent
Frank Gilmour

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
NOV 5		48.5	49.3	2.3	+/- 1.3	3800
NOV 2		48.8	49.3	1.7	+/- 1.7	3165
OCT 29		49.3	48.8	1.9	+/- 1.7	3365
OCT 26		49.3	48.4	2.3	+/- 1.8	3148
OCT 23		49.4	48.0	2.6	+/- 1.7	3348
OCT 12		47.5	49.9	2.7	+/- 1.9	2699

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
NOV 5	RASMUSSEN	49.5	48.5	1.0	+/- 4.4	500
NOV 5	SURVEY USA	43.8	53.1	4.2	+/- 3.8	658
NOV 4	USA TODAY/GALLUP	45.9	50.0	2.0	+/- 3.2	917
NOV 3	MASON-DIXON	48.4	49.5	2.2	+/- 3.9	625
NOV 2	RASMUSSEN	48.5	49.5	2.0	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 31	REUTERS/ZOGBY	47.3	50.5	2.2	+/- 4.0	600
OCT 26	RASMUSSEN	48.5	49.5	2.1	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 29	CNN	49.5	49.5	1.0	+/- 4.1	565
OCT 27	ZOGBY/WSJ	49.6	48.3	2.1	+/- 3.1	1000
OCT 26	RESEARCH 2000	49.0	49.0	2.0	+/- 3.5	800
OCT 25	RASMUSSEN	50.0	47.9	2.1	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 23	LA TIMES/BLOOMBERG	50.0	46.9	3.1	+/- 4.0	593
OCT 23	SURVEY USA	50.5	47.4	2.1	+/- 3.9	630
OCT 19	MASON-DIXON	47.3	50.3	2.2	+/- 3.9	625
OCT 16	ZOGBY/WSJ	50.8	48.2	1.0	+/- 3.1	1000
OCT 12	RASMUSSEN	47.4	46.3	1.1	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 11	SURVEY USA	43.8	53.1	3.1	+/- 4.4	497
OCT 3	RASMUSSEN	48.9	50.0	1.1	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 1	USATODAY/GALLUP	47.4	50.5	2.1	+/- 4.1	577
SEP 27	MASON-DIXON	49.4	49.4	1.1	+/- 3.9	625

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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