2006 CANDIDATES
Jon Tester
Conrad Burns
Stan Jones

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
NOV 4		47.3	51.0	1.7	+/- 1.7	3599
NOV 2		47.7	50.7	1.5	+/- 1.9	2725
OCT 26		46.0	51.4	2.6	+/- 1.9	2534
OCT 19		45.7	51.3	3.0	+/- 1.9	2634
OCT 11		44.9	52.1	3.0	+/- 1.9	2725

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
NOV 4	RASMUSSEN	49.0	51.0	0	+/- 4.4	500
NOV 3	USA TODAY/GALLUP	43.6	53.2	3.2	+/- 3.3	874
NOV 2	RASMUSSEN	47.0	53.0	0	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 31	REUTERS/ZOGBY	48.4	49.5	2.1	+/- 4.0	600
OCT 26	RASMUSSEN	48.0	51.0	1.0	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 19	MASON-DIXON	47.3	50.5	2.2	+/- 3.9	625
OCT 18	RASMUSSEN	47.9	50.0	2.1	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 15	MSU-BILLINGS	40.5	53.2	6.3	+/- 4.8	409
OCT 11	RASMUSSEN	45.2	52.7	2.2	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 5	REUTERS/ZOGBY	46.2	50.5	3.3	+/- 4.0	600
OCT 1	MASON-DIXON	44.4	52.2	3.3	+/- 3.9	625
SEP 20	RASMUSSEN	44.8	52.1	3.1	+/- 4.4	500
SEP 12	RASMUSSEN	43.9	53.1	3.1	+/- 4.4	500

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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