2006 CANDIDATES
Bob Casey, Jr.
Rick Santorum

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
NOV 2		43.2	54.6	2.2	+/- 1.8	3020
OCT 28		44.4	55.6	-	+/- 1.6	3799
OCT 23		45.3	54.7	-	+/- 1.6	3596
OCT 16		44.4	55.6	-	+/- 1.8	2871
OCT 15		44.2	55.8	-	+/- 1.9	2736
OCT 8		44.7	55.3	-	+/- 1.7	3436

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
NOV 2	MASON-DIXON	41.9	55.9	2.2	+/- 3.9	625
NOV 01	MORNING CALL	44.3	52.6	3.1	+/- 4.4	507
OCT 31	REUTERS	42.6	51.1	6.4	+/- 4.0	600
OCT 29	KEYSTONE	41.1	58.9	-	+/- 5.2	355
OCT 29	QUINNIPIAC	44.7	55.3	-	+/- 3.2	933
OCT 28	RASMUSSEN	43.3	56.7	-	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 27	ZOGBY/WSJ	45.4	54.6	-	+/- 3.5	800
OCT 25	WEST CHESTER	43.8	56.2	-	+/- 4.0	601
OCT 25	PHILLY INQUIRER	41.3	58.7	-	+/- 3.7	698
OCT 23	STRATEGIC VISION	46.2	53.8	-	+/- 2.8	1200
OCT 21	MASON-DIXON	43.3	56.7	-	+/- 3.9	625
OCT 8	ZOGBY/WSJ	45.8	54.2	-	+/- 3.6	760
OCT 8	RASMUSSEN	43.3	56.2	-	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 8	MUHLENBERG	47.1	52.9	-	+/- 4.3	511
OCT 5	RASMUSSEN	42.5	57.5	-	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 5	REUTERS/ZOGBY	42.9	57.1	-	+/- 4.0	600
SEP 26	MASON-DIXON	44.9	55.1	-	+/- 3.9	625
SEP 24	STRATEGIC VISION	45.3	54.7	-	+/- 2.8	1200

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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