2006 CANDIDATES
Bernie Sanders
Richard Tarrant
Peter Diamondstone
Steve Moyer

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
OCT 24		38.0	-	62.0	+/- 2.0	2500
SEP 19		37.9	-	62.1	+/- 2.5	1500

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
OCT 24	RESEARCH 2000	38.3	-	61.7	+/- 4.9	400
SEP 19	RESEARCH 2000	35.9	-	64.1	+/- 4.9	400
SEP 14	AMERICAN RESEARCH	41.7	-	58.3	+/- 4.0	600
AUG 3	RASMUSSEN	35.1	-	64.9	+/- 4.4	500
JUL 27	AMERICAN RESEARCH	38.0	-	62.0	+/- 4.0	600

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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