2006 CANDIDATES
Maria Cantwell
Mike McGavick
Aaron Dixon
Bruce Guthrie
Robin Adair

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
NOV 2		44.1	54.2	1.7	+/- 1.5	4049
OCT 29		43.9	53.7	2.4	+/- 1.6	3849
OCT 19		44.2	53.8	2.0	+/- 1.5	4498
OCT 15		44.1	54.2	1.7	+/- 1.6	3778
SEP 27		44.3	54.3	1.4	+/- 1.7	3430

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
NOV 2	MASON-DIXON	40.9	58.1	1.1	+/- 3.9	625
OCT 31	UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON	43.6	56.4	0.0	+/- 3.7	700
OCT 29	SURVEY USA	41.8	55.1	3.1	+/- 3.5	774
OCT 29	STRATEGIC VISION	44.9	53.1	2.0	+/- 3.5	800
OCT 27	ZOGBY/WSJ	47.0	51.0	2.0	+/- 2.9	1150
OCT 26	RASMUSSEN	42.9	55.1	2.0	+/- 4.4	500
OCT 19	MASON-DIXON	40.2	56.5	3.3	+/- 3.9	625
OCT 18	STRATEGIC VISION	44.2	53.7	1.1	+/- 2.8	1200
OCT 16	ZOGBY/WSJ	46.3	52.7	1.0	+/- 2.8	1200
OCT 15	SURVEY USA	44.3	52.6	3.1	+/- 3.4	848
SEP 27	MASON-DIXON	44.0	54.9	1.1	+/- 3.9	625
SEP 25	ZOGBY/WSJ	38.9	58.9	2.2	+/- 4.9	405
SEP 24	ELWAY	50.5	47.4	2.1	+/- 4.0	597
SEP 24	STRATEGIC VISION	44.4	54.4	1.1	+/- 3.3	800
SEP 20	RASMUSSEN	45.7	52.2	2.2	+/- 4.4	500

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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