2006 CANDIDATES
Dale Groutage
Craig Thomas
William “Greybeard” McPherson

DATE 1					MOE 2	S 3
OCT 12		68.3	29.6	2.1	+/- 2.5	1625
JUL 6		66.9	30.9	2.2	+/- 3.1	1000

DATE 1	POLLSTER				MOE 2	S 3
OCT 12	MASON-DIXON	70.5	27.4	2.1	+/- 3.9	625
JUL 6	RASMUSSEN	63.4	34.4	2.2	+/- 4.4	500
APR 27	RASMUSSEN	70.3	27.5	2.2	+/- 4.4	500

NOTES
¹ Date is the last day that the poll was taken. Often polls are embargoed for several days until their release date.
² Margin of Error. MOE is related to sample size, 0.98 divided by the square root of the sample size at 95% confidence (19 times out of 20). For example, a sample of 1000 people has a MOE of +/- 3.1% and a sample of 2000 people has a MOE of +/- 2.2%. For rolling averages, the samples are assumed to be independent, thus sample sizes are aggregated to produce an overall MOE. In practice, some polling firms use lists with repeat calls; in these case, it is more precise to reduct these repeat calls from the overall sample size, thus the actual margin of error might be slightly higher. Example: 5 surveys of 1000 people would normally produce a MOE of +/- 1.4%, if samples were independent. If 25% of calls were repeat calls, however, a more accurate MOE would be based on 4000, not 5000, people, producing a MOE of +/- 1.5%.
³ Sample size.
⁴ Poll numbers exclude undecided voters (and in some cases include estimated for Others), thus are pro-rated to 100%. For example, if the raw poll data shows the Republican candidate with 47%, the Democratic candidate with 41%, Others with 2% and there were 10% undecided, the results excluding undecideds are: Republican 47/90 = 52.2, Democrat 41/90 = 45.6, Others 2/90 = 2.2.

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